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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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6 minutes ago, das said:

Continuum fluid dynamics defined as the ratio of the flow inertia (at the boundary layer) to the external field (at the crest level) that calculates blocking.  

image.png.17eae66c6d98ce171d09dddba9916e74.png

BTV has experimental output they use to determine if snows will fall on the lee side of the crest, the windward side or, under extreme blocking conditions (ie., <0.50), back up into the valley.  It's found here:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL

I posted this earlier, I think, but here's the primer on it:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

More scholarly reading:

https://web.stanford.edu/~fringer/publications/mayer-jfm-2017.pdf

As an aside, if I ever went back to school the project I want to do is applying this to the west to see if you can use it to untangle the different rain shadows and such.  The simple rain shadow / terrain explanation doesn't do a very good job of predicting Western climate. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

u didnt have that one? im not in new haven btw im well inland i knw ppl think its hvn but its closer to MMK. i use MMK for obs.

Oh I got smoked in that, I meant you compared to SW CT. They just missed it iirc. Yeah I north North Haven...I just said New Haven as a place somewhat nearby. 

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It’s been snowing, lightly, pretty much since fairly early in the morning. However it began getting heavier around 1pm.

we had 1.5 - 2 inches on the ground before it even started...

We have had an additional 2.5 -3 inches since this storm started on top of that 

IN TOTAL UP TO NOW, 4-5 inches on ground. 
BUT starting to accelerate accums.

NWS is calling for 5-11 total new inches here so they’re playing it safe and to be conservative this KINDA makes sense, in spite of some models being more aggressive. We will just see how the next several hours go.

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It's still snowing moderately hard between bands, but it sounds like its raining outside, for how much the pine tree is dripping. 

I think the storm was modeled pretty well here, if you ignored the clown maps for actual output.  Super low ratio and high melt.

Since its going to rain at the end anyway here though, who cares?  It's putting on a bit of a show at least.

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