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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Thats not the worst CF I've seen. Many of us here should be OK. It's starting to pound in Brookline. I'm right near the CF. My house in dot is around 36. We can get some heavier echos in and deal with that. Shouldn't be too bad. 

Generators maybe needed somewhere inside 128 that stays snow

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Thats not the worst CF I've seen. Many of us here should be OK. It's starting to pound in Brookline. I'm right near the CF. My house in dot is around 36. We can get some heavier echos in and deal with that. Shouldn't be too bad. 

No, it isn' like a 12-16-07 death sentence CF...that thing past you, and your pack was swiss cheese in a matter of moments

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Mesoscale Discussion 0052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Pennsylvania...central and
   northern New Jersey...far southeast New York...Long
   Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 011843Z - 020045Z

   SUMMARY...Up to 2-4 inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible across
   portions of the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England this
   afternoon, with occasional blizzard conditions possible across Long
   Island. Portions of far eastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey
   will continue to experience a heavy sleet/snow mix.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to gradually deepen while
   tracking slowly north-northeastward just off the Jersey shoreline as
   a 110+ knot 300 mb jet traverses the Mid Atlantic/New England
   Coastline. Strong 925-700 mb warm-air advection ahead/north of the
   surface low continues to support ample mixed wintry
   precipitation/heavy snowfall potential amidst a sub-freezing
   tropospheric vertical profile and deep-layer ascent provided by
   coupled low-level convergence with the surface low and upper-level
   divergence by the strong 300 mb jet (per latest Mesoanalysis).
   Latest KDIX/KOKX dual-polarimetric radar depicts a an east to west
   snow/sleet transition zone roughly from KLOM to KISP. Latest METAR
   observations also show 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates ongoing just north
   of this transition zone, and the heavier snow/sleet are expected to
   gradually translate northward through the afternoon. METAR sites
   also show 25 knot sustained northeasterly winds prevailing across
   Long Island, along with heavy snow and higher gusts noted. As such,
   brief and localized blizzard conditions are expected to persist.

   Latest HREF, SREF, and last few runs of the HRRR suggest that
   relatively lighter snowfall rates mixed with sleet will be the
   predominant mode of precipitation from far eastern PA/central NJ
   southward this afternoon, with a transition of sleet likely across
   portions of Long Island and brief/localized blizzard conditions
   still possible. Farther north across parts of southern New England,
   the heavier band of wintry precipitation will progress northward,
   with strong 700 mb warm-air advection and a near-saturated dendritic
   growth zone supporting 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates this afternoon, as
   suggested by high-resolution model guidance. A few brief instances
   of 4 inch/hr rates also cannot be ruled out.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love that the CF isn't going to collapse until its winding down...seems like its been forever since there was an event like that....they always collapse to Bryce's swing set like 10 minutes in.

I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. :lol:  

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. :lol:  

Has a 2/13/14 vibe where you are....maybe a little better than that one, but similar type of gradient. I remember working in Copley for that one we had like 5" of slime during the day....went west back home and it went to about 12" once you got to Wellesley/128.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Has a 2/13/14 vibe where you are....maybe a little better than that one, but similar type of gradient. I remember working in Copley for that one we had like 5" of slime during the day....went west back home and it went to about 12" once you got to Wellesley/128.

Yeah that one came to mind. Oh well. Can't win them all. I'm glad my gut steered me that way. 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm sorry ... "froude number"   ?

Continuum fluid dynamics defined as the ratio of the flow inertia (at the boundary layer) to the external field (at the crest level) that calculates blocking.  

image.png.17eae66c6d98ce171d09dddba9916e74.png

BTV has experimental output they use to determine if snows will fall on the lee side of the crest, the windward side or, under extreme blocking conditions (ie., <0.50), back up into the valley.  It's found here:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL

I posted this earlier, I think, but here's the primer on it:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

More scholarly reading:

https://web.stanford.edu/~fringer/publications/mayer-jfm-2017.pdf

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that one came to mind. Oh well. Can't win them all. I'm glad my gut steered me that way. 

Hopefully you manage 4-6 hours of absolute pounding birch bending paste.

Bring a few trees down if you aren't going to get 15".

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