STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Thats not the worst CF I've seen. Many of us here should be OK. It's starting to pound in Brookline. I'm right near the CF. My house in dot is around 36. We can get some heavier echos in and deal with that. Shouldn't be too bad. Generators maybe needed somewhere inside 128 that stays snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Thats not the worst CF I've seen. Many of us here should be OK. It's starting to pound in Brookline. I'm right near the CF. My house in dot is around 36. We can get some heavier echos in and deal with that. Shouldn't be too bad. No, it isn' like a 12-16-07 death sentence CF...that thing past you, and your pack was swiss cheese in a matter of moments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 01 2021 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Pennsylvania...central and northern New Jersey...far southeast New York...Long Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011843Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Up to 2-4 inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible across portions of the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England this afternoon, with occasional blizzard conditions possible across Long Island. Portions of far eastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey will continue to experience a heavy sleet/snow mix. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to gradually deepen while tracking slowly north-northeastward just off the Jersey shoreline as a 110+ knot 300 mb jet traverses the Mid Atlantic/New England Coastline. Strong 925-700 mb warm-air advection ahead/north of the surface low continues to support ample mixed wintry precipitation/heavy snowfall potential amidst a sub-freezing tropospheric vertical profile and deep-layer ascent provided by coupled low-level convergence with the surface low and upper-level divergence by the strong 300 mb jet (per latest Mesoanalysis). Latest KDIX/KOKX dual-polarimetric radar depicts a an east to west snow/sleet transition zone roughly from KLOM to KISP. Latest METAR observations also show 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates ongoing just north of this transition zone, and the heavier snow/sleet are expected to gradually translate northward through the afternoon. METAR sites also show 25 knot sustained northeasterly winds prevailing across Long Island, along with heavy snow and higher gusts noted. As such, brief and localized blizzard conditions are expected to persist. Latest HREF, SREF, and last few runs of the HRRR suggest that relatively lighter snowfall rates mixed with sleet will be the predominant mode of precipitation from far eastern PA/central NJ southward this afternoon, with a transition of sleet likely across portions of Long Island and brief/localized blizzard conditions still possible. Farther north across parts of southern New England, the heavier band of wintry precipitation will progress northward, with strong 700 mb warm-air advection and a near-saturated dendritic growth zone supporting 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates this afternoon, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. A few brief instances of 4 inch/hr rates also cannot be ruled out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This feels like a March snowstorm. We've had like half a foot of snow so far and there is a couple inches on the ground. Trying to finish up work so I can take another walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Pouring snow...almost 6 inches now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1.5"-2" in an hour we are track for, timer is on.. West Greenwich RI west of 95 its pounding under that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: EURO spits out a 30" spot for near KFIT over next 7 days Take it to the Feb thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Tough as hell to measure, between 8-10 inches is what I was getting away from drifts . Dry slot is starting to get a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I get the sense this is pivoting favorably for western CT. The new echoes to the south of LI are encouraging. Let's will this into a full fledged band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Pretty map: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love that the CF isn't going to collapse until its winding down...seems like its been forever since there was an event like that....they always collapse to Bryce's swing set like 10 minutes in. I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Snow falling steadily now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. Just text one of us which pond you drive into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. Should be about ready to kick off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not in good shape for this one. I know you all wanted that. Has a 2/13/14 vibe where you are....maybe a little better than that one, but similar type of gradient. I remember working in Copley for that one we had like 5" of slime during the day....went west back home and it went to about 12" once you got to Wellesley/128. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Pretty map: We poundmetown the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not snowing like you’d think it should be based on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, Just as the relative big-flake death band was moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Bridgeport over 10" an hour ago. I bet they've cracked a foot by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It just depends on what happens when that 7h bent back beast gets overhead. If it's still not sticking well then, conservative forecasts will be correcr at coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: It just depends on what happens when that 7h bent back beast gets overhead. If it's still not sticking well then, conservative forecasts will be correcr at coastal locations. We’re just about in it now and it’s pretty mundane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not snowing like you’d think it should be based on radar. Is it windy there? Could be the dendrites are getting shattered 1000' above you. I experience that often out here during coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Man is it ripping out there... beautiful scene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Has a 2/13/14 vibe where you are....maybe a little better than that one, but similar type of gradient. I remember working in Copley for that one we had like 5" of slime during the day....went west back home and it went to about 12" once you got to Wellesley/128. Yeah that one came to mind. Oh well. Can't win them all. I'm glad my gut steered me that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm sorry ... "froude number" ? Continuum fluid dynamics defined as the ratio of the flow inertia (at the boundary layer) to the external field (at the crest level) that calculates blocking. BTV has experimental output they use to determine if snows will fall on the lee side of the crest, the windward side or, under extreme blocking conditions (ie., <0.50), back up into the valley. It's found here: https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL I posted this earlier, I think, but here's the primer on it: https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude More scholarly reading: https://web.stanford.edu/~fringer/publications/mayer-jfm-2017.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Nada here. Band kinda fizzled and we never recovered from the snow/rain mix. 0" final 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that one came to mind. Oh well. Can't win them all. I'm glad my gut steered me that way. Hopefully you manage 4-6 hours of absolute pounding birch bending paste. Bring a few trees down if you aren't going to get 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Somewhere around 10.5-11" based on several measurements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Long way to go. Snow beginning to stick on some back roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What a band! LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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