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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I like the "why" part of that though ...

as in ... too many doubters that do so defensively because they don't want to admit to a circumstance that gets their hopes up lol '

 

- j/k

I said “could” which means colder/snowier solutions ‘may’ verify. Didn’t say with an absolute. GL up there man. Get it.

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7 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It's been snowing since 830 steady and light, but has been growing in intensity as that death band pivots closer and closer.  Love that this is a day storm.  If that blasts through into rain I can live with it!

2 miles farther north makes a difference from south facing areas.

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I'm wondering if the fact that essentially the southern half of NJ is getting boned lower than all that various snow product/guidance and other more standard QPF layouts had going in, is perhaps a trend teller ...

I'm staring like good dweeb would at Dupage's hi res vis loop  (    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined    )   and it occurs to me that the cloud production and fanning out motion that extends just S of LI's length ( which is the axis of 850/700 mb elevated frontal slop ), is probably not going to situate S again ...and those regions are thus screwed -

Hmm.  Just wonder if it's trending everything NE

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Just now, ScottieBird said:

2 miles farther north makes a difference from south facing areas.

Yeah, of course.  I'm sure portsmouth has double our snow already.  I'm closer to the bridges.

It's not worth thinking about though, its gorgeous outside and my kids loving it.

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22 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Let's hope the forcing can maintain... those bands in LI sound remind me of 12/17

I called for 8-12" BOS city proper, 10-14" in northwest burbs, not including anything Tuesday evening... if the forcing we see down south maintains (and does not attenuate as on some guidance), and the CF sets up southeast of the city, I'll bust too low.

I know it's not directly related to our forum, but really high stakes in Philly area... models still in 2 very different camps down there, and it seems the less is unloaded down there, the better the mechanics up here.

 

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if the fact that essentially the southern half of NJ is getting boned lower than all that various snow product/guidance and other more standard QPF layouts had going in, is perhaps a trend teller ...

I'm staring like good dweeb would at Dupage's hi res vis loop  (    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined    )   and it occurs to me that the cloud production and fanning out motion that extends just S of LI's length ( which is the axis of 850/700 mb elevated frontal slop ), is probably not going to situate S again ...and those regions are thus screwed -

Hmm.  Just wonder if it's trending everything NE

Doing the exact same, Tip. Watching Philly obs like a hawk. This zero-sum dynamic is reflected in guidance too. The less gets dumped there, the more mechanics are preserved northeast.

 

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