Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Little streak of snow comes eastward Sunday PM. I am teetering on whether to perform the great thread merge of 2021. Keep that one in the short range/meh thread, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From LOT( put in every event thread): "AT ANY RATE, IT'S FAR TOO EASY TO PICK UP MORE SNOW THAN YOU BARGAINED FOR IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GIVEN SNOW TO WATER RATIOS OF 25 TO 30:1, IF NOT HIGHER. SO, THE MESSAGE GOING FORWARD IS THAT WAVES OF SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Keep that one in the short range/meh thread, Phil. Lol, like that won't cause confusion. I'd rather see any Sunday PM posts in the Feb 8-9 thread, since that is sort of a forerunner. I'd have to change that thread to Feb 7-9, which would mean we'd have 2 threads with Feb 7 in the title... not ideal, but times are tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice lil gfs bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Nice lil gfs bump 1-3" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21z RAP looking naso good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 21z RAP looking naso good Looking more realistic, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still decent enough but nothing like the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 21z RAP looking naso good Widespread 2-5" across N and C IL. Looking as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Drag em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z Euro much drier, as well as weaker/south. Have to go back to SE IA/NW MO for 0.10" liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 almost time to que up semisonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Can’t win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Globals really struggle with these clippers and underestimate what high ratios with minimal moisture can do. Hrrr/rap have been pretty consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 44 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Globals really struggle with these clippers and underestimate what high ratios with minimal moisture can do. Hrrr/rap have been pretty consistent. Been awhile since we've had a good clipper. I'll take the HRRR or SREF plume any day, any year. When we get them we usually do overachieve. Hoping for some good 24 hour trends beginning with tonights runs. With these arctic temps coming, it has to over perform for us(wishcasting). Hoping 21Z SREF continues the upward trend. A bit of the other thread but still nearly 5" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z HRRR is drier and back to earth.Still targets metro with highest totals though, with 0.10-0.15” liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well crap, guess I put the jinx on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 SREF plume didn't change a whole lot. 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM is wetter, quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z top 0Z bottom. Not wetter, maybe better ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 So far on 0z guidance, common theme is to hone in on the FGEN band expected to move from along the IA/MO border on up into N IL. That corridor looks like likely end up the winner, in the 2-4" range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Both the HRRR and NAM place the banding signature a bit north of where the low-mid level f-gen has been maximized on recent model runs, which is where you'd expect it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah looks like a nice 2-3" refesher for this area. #buildtheglacier 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Imagine that. Something that favors northern IL. Lol. Now looks like that frontogenic band will bypass here and we only get a narrow west to east band a few hours. Sunday clipper may actually have better potential here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 36 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Imagine that. Something that favors northern IL. Lol. Now looks like that frontogenic band will bypass here and we only get a narrow west to east band a few hours. Sunday clipper may actually have better potential here your time will come in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baum said: your time will come in this pattern. As that cold dome really builds south one would think but then it will probably miss me south. Lol. Just not my winter. Oh well. At least there's plenty of snow chances and some extreme cold to follow. I will take what little I can get 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 St. Louis to Paducah if we don't cash in by Tuesday. Mother Nature does not play reverse psychology games, she simply punishes a few over and over each year, every year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wind chill advisory + WWA = Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pretty poor run to run continuity by some of the guidance with this little wave. 3km NAM went from about 0.17" to 0.04" of precip for the QCA, which would be a substantial difference with 20:1+ LSR snowfall lol. I think a general 1-3" is the safest call, but 4" of fluff can't be ruled out if the "wetter" runs that have showed up from time to time are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 going to find a way to snow in this airmass if there is even a hint of moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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