Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Plumes not out yet but looking on COD, SREF mean swath bumped north and slightly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 hrrr holding with a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hrrr holding with a hit If this happens you've earned it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hrrr holding with a hit Came back in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6” smack through metro lol why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6” smack through metro lol why not . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 nice match to this posted by ricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM trying to do a lil thing at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hopefully the 21z RAP comes in on the wetter side too. Would help boost confidence toward a higher end advisory scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z NAMS = lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 You would think qpf would be better with the progged respectable frontogenesis. At least gives some hope for things to end up wetter than the NAM and other dry models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 must be tough to live on the east coast...just casually pulling out legit nor'easters 36 hours before an event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You would think qpf would be better with the progged respectable frontogenesis. At least gives some hope for things to end up wetter than the NAM and other dry models. yeah, looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 55 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Plumes not out yet but looking on COD, SREF mean swath bumped north and slightly wetter ARW cores good, NMB cores bad, like the 12z high res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 LOT went advisory. Somewhat limited placement though generally south of I-80 and not including any counties in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: LOT went advisory. Somewhat limited placement though generally south of I-80 and not including any counties in IN. Definitely will have to expand that north and east with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT went advisory. Somewhat limited placement though generally south of I-80 and not including any counties in IN. Eek. Kinda contradicts that aviation discussion and I guess completely tossing HRRR. Wonder who made that bonehead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Definitely will have to expand that north and east with time. Curious to read the reasoning on that placement. Like, I don't think there would be much less here or in Chicago compared to Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice bump in SREF. Many more members showing 5"+ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Nice bump in SREF. Many more members showing 5"+ now. Anything from a DAB to dog 30hrs out. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Why the dude inverted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 18z NAMS = lame The Never Accurate Model strikes again. Issue with nam with amounts seems to be a much narrower snow band so much less duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Anything from a DAB to dog 30hrs out. Nice About 24hrs snow, probably a bit less given 9/10 times the start time ends up earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: About 24hrs snow, probably a bit less given 9/10 times the start time ends up earlier. The type where even flurries will accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM definitely doing that classic NAM dry air thing that it does with arctic airmasses, weird splotchy returns giveaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Curious to read the reasoning on that placement. Like, I don't think there would be much less here or in Chicago compared to Kankakee.I'm surprised they didn't go into Indiana with it, which may have had to do with IWX and IND not issuing for any of their counties. Haven't seen that quick of dampening eastward within the CWA on the guidance. There's a little bit of good and a little bit of less good from what we know so far. Clearly they didn't rely solely upon global guidance and ensembles for QPF and snow output. On the other hand, there's support for going farther north and east with the headline. My guess, if the AVN AFD is a clue, is that we wanted to go farther north but DVN didn't even want to issue anything. The map looks weird enough with LaSalle in and not Bureau and Putnam and points west. Imo having included LaSalle could also have included some counties farther north and east in the metro without yet putting Lee County in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: NAM definitely doing that classic NAM dry air thing that it does with arctic airmasses, weird splotchy returns giveaway Really bad with it for Mon event...Super splotchy 3-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Really bad with it for Mon event...Super splotchy 3-7". Little streak of snow comes eastward Sunday PM. I am teetering on whether to perform the great thread merge of 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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