MIstorm97 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Having a hard time buying the forcing lasting into eastern MI. Most guidance has an energy transfer to the coast which is why the snowfall amounts should gradually taper from what IA/NE see. Definitely is the major fly in the ointment. Will be riding a line between enough energy transferring away that this isn't more than 1-2" here, and something that is 4"+. Certainly wouldn't go big if I was forecasting at some agency. But this is amwx, so throwing out a weenie call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Pretty much non existent on the ukmet also. Rap and hhr prob off their rocker. Ukie still has it just drier and its snowmaps are at 10:1 . We should be closer to 15:1 or 20:1 i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ukie still has it just drier and its snowmaps are at 10:1 . We should be closer to 15:1 or 20:1 i would thinkNeed to start sharing the 24hr totals, so the other events are not included.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Definitely is the major fly in the ointment. Will be riding a line between enough energy transferring away that this isn't more than 1-2" here, and something that is 4"+. Certainly wouldn't go big if I was forecasting at some agency. But this is amwx, so throwing out a weenie call. Agreed.. it's tough when an increase of .01 could mean 2 more inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Think this is an event set up where ratios could overperform. 15-20:1 seems likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 3rd time is a chime put it in 2/8-2/9 topic the simple answer is, there are way too many short timeframe threads. Might as well start with 5-7 day spans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Think this is an event set up where ratios could overperform. 15-20:1 seems likely Nice tidbit here from our 18z TAF Aviation AFDSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: Think this is an event set up where ratios could overperform. 15-20:1 seems likely Maybe nitpicking but 15:1 to 20:1 is pretty much what is expected at this point. So imo it would take something over 20:1 to be overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Nice tidbit here from our 18z TAF Aviation AFD Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Nice tidbit here from our 18z TAF Aviation AFD Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 21-3z is top notch snow timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 the simple answer is, there are way too many short timeframe threads. Might as well start with 5-7 day spans. There are only two main threads. Should be easy to tell the difference between the 6-7th and 8-9th.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 New grids haven’t been touched yet I’m guessing given only 1.1” in hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Maybe nitpicking but 15:1 to 20:1 is pretty much what is expected at this point. So imo it would take something over 20:1 to be overperforming.15:1 is easily a lowball with the depth of the DGZ. 20:1 is a good starting point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 New grids haven’t been touched yet I’m guessing given only 1.1” in hourly Yep, guaranteed based on the Aviation AFD that they'll be taking them up. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 so LOT is riding the ARN5 huh, cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro bumped south but still 3” along 88 into metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15:1 is easily a lowball with the depth of the DGZ. 20:1 is a good starting point. . If I have to be critical about something, I wish we had a better lineup of omega throughout the DGZ (a substantial amount is in it, but also a substantial amount outside of it) but overall it's a good look for nice ratios. 20:1 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2" of fluff or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro bumped south but still 3” along 88 into metro That is on qpf of generally 0.1" or less in the LOT cwa. I'd rather not rely on 30:1 or higher ratios. Would like to see more precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That is on qpf of generally 0.1" or less in the LOT cwa. I'd rather not rely on 30:1 or higher ratios. Would like to see more precip.Pivotal KucheraSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Pivotal Kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk more reasonable, i don't actually expect 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Pivotal Kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Pivotal Kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Do you have any concern about the NAM lacking a bit in saturation of the DGZ tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 There should be a 3/4hr band where the 850-700 frontogenesis sets up - easy over on ratios there. Northern parts of the modeled QPF have the forcing above the DGZ, so those areas would be pixie dust. Pretty wild to see another winter event with summer-like 700-500mb lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Do you have any concern about the NAM lacking a bit in saturation of the DGZ tomorrow?No because that's a common NAM problem in Arctic air masses. The GFS has a much lower QPF output but it's completely saturated through the DGZ. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 There should be a 3/4hr :weenie:band where the 850-700 frontogenesis sets up - easy over on ratios there. Northern parts of the modeled QPF have the forcing above the DGZ, so those areas would be pixie dust. Pretty wild to see another winter event with summer-like 700-500mb lapse rates. 12z NAM valid 22z 800-600 mb 2D f-gen from FSU sitehttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM has always had the hot fgen look, would be nice to see 18z hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gonna be along 80 while metro sucks on pixie dust lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 time 2 send this fool back 2 colorado 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: time 2 send this fool back 2 colorado first of many nickel and dimes snowfall totals over the next week 10+ ? (Euro looks like it wants to reload later vs the cold dump GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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