WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9Z SREF plume back to reality. 1.5" at KSPI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 HRRR Martin chimes in with the 13z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 board's asleep but our first fluff maker is in bound: 948 AM CST SNOW HAS EXPANDED FROM NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA THIS MORNING. REPORTS ACROSS NEBRASKA HAVE RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS SHOW THE SNOW WOULD LAST LONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AREAS NORTH TO I-88 WILL GET IN ON THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TOO. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OMAHA, NE HAS LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 DEG/KM IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER, AND THIS COUPLED WITH A NICE SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL LAYER AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW THIS SNOW SHIELD TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA WITH EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING IS ABOVE THE PRIME SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER, IT WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY AND FLUFFY, AND WITH 0.1-0.18" OF QPF REPORTED UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED LOCALLY, SNOW NUMBERS OF 1.5-4" ACROSS THE AREA SEEM ON TRACK. ALSO, THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 1/2SM TO 3/4SM VISIBILITIES ACROSS IOWA. WE DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING AS THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY FALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN DAYS PAST, BUT 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL DRIFTING OF THIS DRY SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS RURAL AREAS. CAUTION IS URGED TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN. -per LOT AFD update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 and 14Z HRRR bumped me to 2". Just can't fall for any of the other threads yet, I'll wait until they each come into HRRR range and save myself the disappointment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 36 minutes ago, Baum said: board's asleep but our first fluff maker is in bound Thread would be bumpin just a few weeks ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 inch or 2 inbound for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, tuanis said: Thread would be bumpin just a few weeks ago Yeah, with a 16" snow depth I am not getting too excited over 2" max storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: inch or 2 inbound for us Debating if I’m going to head out later today for a drive to my parents. Roads snow covered (salt not working at these temps) and just thinking that even 1-2 of blowing fluff at these temps can cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 A very dry air mass to overcome first. 15/3 here now. Oof. Hoping saturation won't eat up too much of the snow band. Ratios should be nice though once it commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 vis down to 1/4 mile in places in NE/IA and rates up to an inch per hour 1033 AM SNOW LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W 02/06/2021 M3.7 INCH LANCASTER NE PUBLIC 1 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It did not take long for the snow to reach the ground here. It's snowing pretty good. I may be able to get an inch before it quickly moves out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It did not take long for the snow to reach the ground here. It's snowing pretty good. I may be able to get an inch before it quickly moves out. What’s your flake quality like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It did not take long for the snow to reach the ground here. It's snowing pretty good. I may be able to get an inch before it quickly moves out. Were waiting for the "when you're hot, you're hot" comment. Dont mind me, just a jealous hater currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Snowfall totals under-performing across S IA. Given that and how transient the FGEN forcing will be, looks like most totals across IL will range from a dusting to 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 East lincoln, ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Snowfall totals under-performing across S IA. Given that and how transient the FGEN forcing will be, looks like most totals across IL will range from a dusting to 2" or so. Any idea on liquid equivalent out there? Are ratios performing as expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Any idea on liquid equivalent out there? Are ratios performing as expected? not in the band but... 1200 PM SNOW DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W 02/06/2021 M1.0 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS TOTAL AT DSM AIRPORT THROUGH NOON. DES MOINES SNOW 6 1 80 NW14 30.20F VSB 1/2 WCI -11 6HR MIN TEMP: 6; 6HR MAX TEMP: 8; 6HR PCP: 0.10; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pixie dust with a fairly bright sky, dusting so far. Has the look of a DAB+ type event. Perhaps flake quality vastly improves in the more enhanced bands, like down by Galesburg atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 56 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: not in the band but... 1200 PM SNOW DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W 02/06/2021 M1.0 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS TOTAL AT DSM AIRPORT THROUGH NOON. DES MOINES SNOW 6 1 80 NW14 30.20F VSB 1/2 WCI -11 6HR MIN TEMP: 6; 6HR MAX TEMP: 8; 6HR PCP: 0.10; that's des moines...they always underperform. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pixie dust in Aurora right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well this is sounding disappointing. Having a feeling the very dry antecedent air mass is a big culprit. Saw where RH wasn't quite ideal in the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Pixie dust with a fairly bright sky, dusting so far. Has the look of a DAB+ type event. Perhaps flake quality vastly improves in the more enhanced bands, like down by Galesburg atm. Quincy doing pretty good from the looks of it. St. Louis NWS posted some photos, very low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well this is sounding disappointing. Having a feeling the very dry antecedent air mass is a big culprit. Saw where RH wasn't quite ideal in the snow growth zone. I was hoping for 2" yesterday and now I'm hoping for 1" and that seems unlikely. I just want to have enough to shovel and increase the size of my snow piles! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well this is sounding disappointing. Having a feeling the very dry antecedent air mass is a big culprit. Saw where RH wasn't quite ideal in the snow growth zone. It’s wasn’t really supposed to be snowing down that way yet. The atmosphere is no drier south than it is north... Give it time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Quincy doing pretty good from the looks of it. St. Louis NWS posted some photos, very low visibility. It's been snowing since noon and we have maybe 0.3" lol. A buddy down in Galva said it's snowing pretty good there, so the rates are prob a lot better in the enhanced bands. We've been sort of stuck in a mini-screw zone the whole time as well which doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ratios in these situations are always tied to how well the omega is aligned with the DGZ. If there's a mismatch, you get pixies, no matter how deep the DGZ is. Today is conditionally favorable for 20:1+ ratios because of the deep DGZ but it looks like it will be temporary and tied to the somewhat transient f-gen banding. Wherever ratios end more around 10:1 today is a good case study for the flaw of the Kuchera method (and also underscores how ridiculous the WeenieBell maps are). Because it's based off the MaxT from the surface to 500 mb, and the whole column is very cold, there's no way for the Kuchera ratios to not be high today and in other events with cold sfc temps, which means caution is advised for all events moving forward with snow maps. The Cobb ratios found on PSU BUFKIT site are better for a day like today because the Cobb ratios are based off how strong the lift is and how well aligned it is with the DGZ. Kuchera is better for more marginal thermals or when it looks like climo ratios are better than 10:1 for a given event. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Decent light snow atm, flake size is definitely bigger than pixies, but the band looks transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 snowing nicely here. Sounds like over performance not in the cards today. Irregardless, nice wintry scene and much to follow upcoming. Beats 35 and days on end of cloudy. Hoping for 2 inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 SN- has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The band from BRL to VYS is where it's at for getting the high ratio dendrites. It looks like that should slide across the southwest burbs and then probably south of downtown Chicago. Might be close to getting clipped by the band at my location. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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