RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 New Euro and EPS will be key tonight. UKMET not a total dud like other globals with implied 1-3" from just under 1/10" to some spots a bit over 1/10" liquid equivalent across the CWA. Figure ratios of at least 15:1 are attainable with a very deep DGZ and previous NAM runs also had steep mid-upper lapse rates. Even though the 12km NAM backed off on QPF, its simulated reflectivity still looked pretty good. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just cherry picking the 3z RAP and a sounding up this way, you get a very deep DGZ/isothermal layer. If this were true you’re probably talking close to if not 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro is even drier than 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro is even drier than 18z run WeatherBell weenie vision still fluffs it up to 1-3", looks like that's still doable as long as we get snow out of this wave and the DGZ is very deep. If the meso models hold with a better event through tomorrow, then can put more stock in them. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 All things considered, a pretty ridiculous difference between the HRRR/RAP and the other models for being 36-48 hours out. You almost have to think there will end up being some kind of comprimise, even if it's 70/30 or 80/20 or something. Hard to imagine one of these camps completely nailing it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pass on a DAB refresher. Want the RAP version 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z HRRR following the 3z RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Huge run. 6-10”+ across chi metro as that area sits in the pivot with an 8-10 hour window of a ~10kft DGZ depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Huge run. 6-10”+ across chi metro as that area sits in the pivot with an 8-10 hour window of a ~10kft DGZ depth. LOT has a hell of a forecast on their hands. That is a solid winter storm watch/warning type of event but of course there is no way anybody is pulling the trigger on that at this point. I am almost tempted to wait for the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: LOT has a hell of a forecast on their hands. That is a solid winter storm watch/warning type of event but of course there is no way anybody is pulling the trigger on that at this point. I am almost tempted to wait for the 6z NAM. I’m doing the same and early guess is it trends more favorably. It’s subtle but has a slightly better look at 30hr WRT phase/more pronounced low across the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said: Just cherry picking the 3z RAP and a sounding up this way, you get a very deep DGZ/isothermal layer. If this were true you’re probably talking close to if not 20:1 ratios. Just poked through that 06Z HRRR run, wow. Pretty much ideal for at least 20:1 - light winds, lift in the DGZ (which is 9k-10k feet thick!) and 700-500mb lapse rates 6.5-7.5. 06Z NAM frontogenesis at both 700 & 850mb would also imply a swath of heavy snow across IA into far S WI, N half of IL/IN and S 1/3rd MI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Been trying to reel this one in based on weenie sref members so nice to have rap and hrrr support. still feel ok about my call but it would be nice to gain some better support. Globals seems to get more zzzz each time I peek Nest looks reasonable enuff and hits close to on the nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 8:48 AM, A-L-E-K said: time 2 bring this look back, 6z NAM wasn't too far off actually 12z guidance holds with an ok hit, i'll feel better tossing the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 this pattern gonna snow when models scream no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baum said: this pattern gonna snow when models scream no snow. probably more a comment for monday and beyond, most models show snow saturday night, globals are just a DAB-2 as opposed to a major I'd call the 6z GEFS are marginal improvement, hoping 12z runs bring the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z Euro back wetter again, with 2-4” event across good portion of N and C IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Obviously you can't really take the hhr at hour 50 very seriously but if you extrapolate the 6z run, you would think the totals west in illinois/ind would translate eastward into michigan. Sub 999 low intensifying. Its pretty wild how much the models are struggling with this setup. Perhaps alot of the energy is originating in the nw, in Canada. Usually models struggle with canadian energy. The early next week threat looked like the bigger potential, now this one is trying to take its place, pretty much 48 hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 it def backed down, weaker and more progressive (not surprising given how amped 6z was) still an ok hit but moving towards a more realistic nam look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Final call 2" of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Final call 2" of fluff low ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'd take that HRRR run all day. Low gets cranking as it over CLE and is a great hit for the SEMI crew. Feeling optimistic with this one. Felt good for the last storm too and it played out how I thought it would. Bring it First call: 5" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: low ball nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think there's upside potential above our official 1-2, locally 3" forecast, for reasons that have been discussed (high SLR, steep lapse rates, low and mid-level f-gen). Now that the HRRR has gotten more realistic, the 06z NAM runs probably represent a reasonable best case scenario for now. Good to hear the Euro bumped QPF on 06z run.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Final call 2" of fluff is that call for sunday PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: I'd take that HRRR run all day. Low gets cranking as it over CLE and is a great hit for the SEMI crew. Feeling optimistic with this one. Felt good for the last storm too and it played out how I thought it would. Bring it First call: 5" Having a hard time buying the forcing lasting into eastern MI. Most guidance has an energy transfer to the coast which is why the snowfall amounts should gradually taper from what IA/NE see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: nah you're probably right, trying to wishcast this pattern back to greatness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAM going to be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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