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January 31-February 2, 2021 Major Winter Storm Observations


Ralph Wiggum
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Just now, bpjones595 said:


Sleet was all over the forecast lol


.

Bingo. This has played out like most mesos showed. WAA bonus snows yesterday,  lull overnight into morning with sleet push to southern LV. Now if mesos are right should be all snow everywhere E PA by 1130AM latest. Then the heaviest snows 1-7pm.

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Sleet was all over the forecast lol


.

No, not this far north and only today when it was already happen did ice enter the forecast. These forecasts typically do not account for the influence of the original low to the west prior to the coastal becoming primary, and that coastal is not exerting primary influence in all layers yet. You can nowcast at this point and I would estimate the entire snowfall prediction can be held as suspect now.
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Just now, wkd said:

sn++ with huge flakes.  I think the large flakes are a cause of the radar lighting up on the COD site.  No sleet here.

On the exact same latitude as you, just as heavy radar returns, and heavy heavy sleet. Not panicking yet, I'll do that if it's still sleeting by 12pm...

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Consensus was that heavy snow would be in south east pa by 10 am.  I’m not seeing any post  history that this would happen except for one person who said to expect people to bail early.  Huge mismatch between sentiment over last 24 -36 hours and observations.  

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

On the exact same latitude as you, just as heavy radar returns, and heavy heavy sleet. Not panicking yet, I'll do that if it's still sleeting by 12pm...

That's strange. Where is the warm layer. I don't see it on the mesos.

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3 minutes ago, Mevwx said:

Consensus was that heavy snow would be in south east pa by 10 am.  I’m not seeing any post  history that this would happen except for one person who said to expect people to bail early.  Huge mismatch between sentiment over last 24 -36 hours and observations.  

My parents report nothing falling in Oxford, PA. Up here in Reading, steady pingers on the windows mixed with light snow atm. 25.3°F. Thinking about firing up the snowblower for an initial pass on the driveway/sidewalk.

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