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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


wdrag
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Haven't been reading so forgive me if this has been said or is obvious, but keep in mind that just about every 18Z model (1 pm data inputs) had most of CNJ at 1-2" right about now, so the fact that most seem to have 2-4" as of 10 pm means the storm is exceeding expectations, so far. Also, the snow overnight isn't supposed to be that heavy, as the coastal low is just getting going now off the NC coast, so most of the models have CNJ in the 5-7" range at 7 am tomorrow, with the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm (a foot or more). And in NNJ/NYC, add 2-3 hours to those numbers.  On FB and a couple of non-weather boards, people are wondering why we don't have more snow...

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Up to 3.5" as of 9 pm at 23F; snow has let up a bit and also smaller flake size, so presumably lower ratio.  

Up to 4.0" as of 10 pm in Metuchen - 1/2" over the last half hour.  Temp steady at 23F.  It's freakin' gorgeous out there - go take a walk if you haven't yet...

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

4" now just a couple inches shy of my December storm totals.

Winds picking up a bit. I wasn't expecting so much this early. Dry slot near Philly appears to be filling in.

Looks like coastal is about to take over.

Yes-snow should consolidate and get heavier overnight as the moist easterly flow and strong lift take over. 

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