Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[Rjay]

"What the hell is a slant-sticker?" - wife 

[mannynyc]

Light snow in Lower Manhattan right now. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Those heavy echoes south of LI are sleet...let's see if they wash out

We should be good. Looks like the sleet line is stopping just south of Fire Island.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, nflwxman said:

Heavy snow in Riverdale - ~12.8" ONG. Flake size is noticeably larger. A pivot would be real nice right now.

Absolutely pounding snow huge flakes 

[eduggs]

The pivot looks to setup west of most of us. There should still be some regenerating snow/sleet bands rotating through, but they look to swing through fairly quickly.

Tomorrow could see some banding rotating back through or even developing in place.

[Northof78]

Official Obs: (2pm)

TTN: Light Snow (1.75)
SMQ: Light Snow (?)
EWR: Heavy Snow (0.25)
CPK: Mod/Heavy Snow (0.25)

[winterwarlock]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL at people complaining about getting over a foot of snow.

 

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

[kenrad]

Any update out of the Hamptons @Joe4alb

[patrick05]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Light rain/sleet in holbrook

can confirm sleet here as well.. still some snow mixed in

CC radar showing those echoes to the south are mostly sleet but let's see if it can fight it out to bring us another round of snow

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We should be good. Looks like the sleet line is stopping just south of Fire Island.

The sleet seems focused in CNJ; not what was expected. I think you may top out higher than us; It is sleeting quite hard; we are losing big bands to sleet. It is quite persistent now.

[jm1220]

Just now, patrick05 said:

can confirm sleet here as well.. still some snow mixed in

CC radar showing those echoes to the south are mostly sleet but let's see if it can fight it out to bring us another round of snow

Interesting. Hope it flips back over. CC shows the mix line south of Fire Island and hanging there. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

Yeah 10-12 with  prolonged sleet was not mentioned, but here many of us are....

[eduggs]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

I think most of the area will ultimately end up with 1-5 - 2.5" QPF as modeled. But that won't translate into 20" of snow everywhere. As usual, the best ratios and pivoting mid-level frontogenesis will likely occur well N&W of the metro.

[Jeff Grann]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Never guaranteed anything.  Just wishes! And its still early!

"This is Bonkers! Im going to get my 30 and Im gonna like it" 

[Rjay]

Just now, patrick05 said:

can confirm sleet here as well.. still some snow mixed in

CC radar showing those echoes to the south are mostly sleet but let's see if it can fight it out to bring us another round of snow

Headed home.  Roads aren't too bad so far.  Will teach my wife to measure.  Thanks to you and @justinj for representing the area.  

[Jeff Grann]

7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Never guaranteed anything.  Just wishes! And its still early!

Insanely heavy snow in Sayreville! 30 looking real good right now

[Jt17]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think most of the area will ultimately end up with 1-5 - 2.5" QPF as modeled. But that won't translate into 20" of snow everywhere. As usual, the best ratios and pivoting mid-level frontogenesis will likely occur well N&W of the metro.

Most of the five boros have reports of 15+ inches already with plenty of time left to tack on 5 more inches. Eventually the radar will fill back in and it won't take very much to get 20 inch totals. I think people just expect snow to arrive in a far more linear way than it actually does. As we've seen, it comes in waves. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

storms not over.  People should save the bust calls for 24 hrs from now

[Blizzardo]

Just now, Jeff Grann said:

Insanely heavy snow in Sayreville! 30 looking real good right now

And in none of those did I say we are definitely getting 30. You have issues to even be bickering about it..... 

[nesussxwx]

9 minutes ago, jdt said:

19.9” as of 2pm. Sparta, NW NJ.

It is a whiteout out there. 3-5"/hr stuff. Once this pivot occurs this band will stall over us

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Jeff Grann said:

Insanely heavy snow in Sayreville! 30 looking real good right now

Not far from you. Maybe it will flip back. Insane winds now. Stopped hearing pinging but no flip to snow. Precip seems to have stopped.

[patrick05]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Headed home.  Roads aren't too bad so far.  Will teach my wife to measure.  Thanks to you and @justinj for representing the area.  

LOL for all we know it really was 12" by you 

[jm1220]

Snow picking back up a little, no sleet. 

[SnowGoose69]

The 12Z Euro if you view 3 hour increments basically has current scenario nailed...showed 15-18z as crazy for the metro...18-21 as bad N NJ and SW then the CCB dies slowly 21-00Z over NNJ SRN NY and E PA...it does hint that Queens/Nassau might continue seeing bands try to redevelop and keep accumulations going but light

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I already have a foot

snow ended here about an hour ago so I figured I would measure it....14"  no snow no sleet, nada outside for the past hour except for high winds and blowing snow, 29 degrees.

[brianinhboro]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

and NWS.  I have freezing rain chewing my 12-15" of snowpack up right now.  No radars have this they all say snow.  #worthless

[Dark Star]

15" in Garwood (Central Union County).  Sleet mixing in, takes over, then goes back to snow.  

[sussexcountyobs]

2pm measurment. 

15.5" 

3" in last hour.

Very heavy snow falling. 20.6°

[weatherpruf]

I think the wind is the story right now in CNJ...

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Literally we got pretty much zero snow from the coastal. This is a top 3 all time bust for my area. 0z runs last night showed a consensus 12-24” additional and we are gonna end up with 1-3” more at most. We might be done already. Feels bad man...

It's not over and you look to be in a pretty good spot for the pivot.