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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


wdrag
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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We should be good. Looks like the sleet line is stopping just south of Fire Island.

The sleet seems focused in CNJ; not what was expected. I think you may top out higher than us; It is sleeting quite hard; we are losing big bands to sleet. It is quite persistent now.

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Just now, patrick05 said:

can confirm sleet here as well.. still some snow mixed in

CC radar showing those echoes to the south are mostly sleet but let's see if it can fight it out to bring us another round of snow

Interesting. Hope it flips back over. CC shows the mix line south of Fire Island and hanging there. 

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Just now, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I think because the models were hyping some outrageous outputs

I think most of the area will ultimately end up with 1-5 - 2.5" QPF as modeled. But that won't translate into 20" of snow everywhere. As usual, the best ratios and pivoting mid-level frontogenesis will likely occur well N&W of the metro.

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Just now, patrick05 said:

can confirm sleet here as well.. still some snow mixed in

CC radar showing those echoes to the south are mostly sleet but let's see if it can fight it out to bring us another round of snow

Headed home.  Roads aren't too bad so far.  Will teach my wife to measure.  Thanks to you and @justinj for representing the area.  

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think most of the area will ultimately end up with 1-5 - 2.5" QPF as modeled. But that won't translate into 20" of snow everywhere. As usual, the best ratios and pivoting mid-level frontogenesis will likely occur well N&W of the metro.

Most of the five boros have reports of 15+ inches already with plenty of time left to tack on 5 more inches. Eventually the radar will fill back in and it won't take very much to get 20 inch totals. I think people just expect snow to arrive in a far more linear way than it actually does. As we've seen, it comes in waves. 

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The 12Z Euro if you view 3 hour increments basically has current scenario nailed...showed 15-18z as crazy for the metro...18-21 as bad N NJ and SW then the CCB dies slowly 21-00Z over NNJ SRN NY and E PA...it does hint that Queens/Nassau might continue seeing bands try to redevelop and keep accumulations going but light

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Literally we got pretty much zero snow from the coastal. This is a top 3 all time bust for my area. 0z runs last night showed a consensus 12-24” additional and we are gonna end up with 1-3” more at most. We might be done already. Feels bad man...

It's not over and you look to be in a pretty good spot for the pivot.

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