Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[ILoveWinter]

Getting smoked in the UWS, don't yet see the characteristic large flakes associated with an imminent changeover to sleet

[ict1523]

Heaviest snow of the storm around Newark right now. Visibility about a tenth of a mile.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

so that depiction it had of mixing up to Rockland was a result of the dry slot?

 

Maybe it’s coming in earlier than modeled the whole storm has progressed faster than modeled so wouldn’t be shocking 

[hooralph]

Puking snow here again. Keep that sleet out of Manhattan.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

nice pics...looks the same here...

Directly across from SI... right on the water. Small town with an urban feel. Shares some municipal services with Woodbridge.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea that's a disappointment and a NAM bust, it had this going strong until 7 pm...

The lousy 700 low track is always a red flag to me for a fast dryslot. We should easily make it to 12” but the 15+ amounts aren’t happening east of the city unless radar really regenerates. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Heavy snow falling. 20.0 ° Will measure at 1pm

[Blizzardo]

And sleet in Sayreville

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The lousy 700 low track is always a red flag to me for a fast dryslot. We should easily make it to 12” but the 15+ amounts aren’t happening east of the city unless radar really regenerates. 

I already have a foot

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, omo_yankee said:

it should be sleeting for you soon i am hearing sleet in linden . 14"

Back to snow here after brief period of sleet, but intensity has dropped off. Oop as I write it just went back to sleet. Can hear it.

[janetjanet998]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Puking snow here again. Keep that sleet out of Manhattan.

according to CC so far ,  any sleet changes back to snow a couple of miles south of you

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The lousy 700 low track is always a red flag to me for a fast dryslot. We should easily make it to 12” but the 15+ amounts aren’t happening east of the city unless radar really regenerates. 

interesting anatomy of these storms, would this kind of thing not happen if the storm was vertically stacked?  also, are there ever cases where these "assistant lows" (the 700 low for example) are to the southeast of the main low?

 

[cleetussnow]

32 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

White Plains getting hammered with this band! Hoping that second band comes through from LI!

Can confirm.  I get 10 just north with 3 inches per hour.  Free fire zone.

[mikem81]

Will radar fill in from the ocean as LP pivots???

[LibertyBell]

Just now, janetjanet998 said:

according to CC so far ,  any sleet changes back to snow a couple of miles south of you

sounds like it's based on precip rates so between bands it sleets and in the bands its snow.

by the way sleet is still considered snow in measurements so if sleet is accumulating it's still considered an accumulating snowfall lol.

 

[Wxnyc]

Changed to halfway sleet here in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 1230P 9.3 " in this part. packing and drifting so the average SD seems to be about 8.5"   23.7F

[Gravity Wave]

Is the 700 mb low forming as quickly as it was expected to? The mesoanalysis site doesn't seem to show an organized low at that level yet.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Can confirm.  I get 10 just north with 3 inches per hour.  Free fire zone.

got anything in Area 51 that can change the track of the 700mb low?

 

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

interesting anatomy of these storms, would this kind of thing not happen if the storm was vertically stacked?  also, are there ever cases where these "assistant lows" (the 700 low for example) are to the southeast of the main low?

 

The low eventually becomes vertically stacked but lows here would have the 700 low track to the west of the surface low and the 500 low west of that. That’s how the storm strengthens-it’s vertically tilted and air can rise quickly. When it becomes stacked all the lows are on top of each other and it starts weakening since the fast rising air stops. You really would rather the 700mb low go east of you for the best pivot point on the snow. East of it is where the dry air comes in. 

[MikeStorms]

8.5 OTG in Ossining. 2 inches in the last hour.


.

[Eduardo]

Still have SN + + in Brooklyn Heights.  No pingers (yet)!

[hooralph]

Heaviest of the day here on the UWS.

[ebwx]

Sleet in East Brunswick

[allgame830]

I’m thinking we have a good chance to stay away from the dry slot in northern Westchester... does anybody agree?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The low eventually becomes vertically stacked but lows here would have the 700 low track to the west of the surface low and the 500 low west of that. That’s how the storm strengthens-it’s vertically tilted and air can rise quickly. When it becomes stacked all the lows are on top of each other and it starts weakening since the fast rising air stops. You really would rather the 700mb low go east of you for the best pivot point on the snow. East of it is where the dry air comes in. 

Thanks- but if the 700mb low is east of you wouldn't that mean that the surface low is too far to the east?  Or is it a case of you want the 700mb low to be only a little to the west of the surface low?  And so if the 700 and 500 lows were to the east of the surface low, that would be bad since the storm would be weakening?

Vertically stacked lows sound a lot like an occlusion.

 

 

[patrick05]

1pm

LGA: 10"

JFK: 9"

ISP: 9"

Snow has lightened up here but no pingers yet.. i'm closer to 10" as well.. really hoping to reach 12" but that dryslot is very menacing

[snywx]

Just now, allgame830 said:

I’m thinking we have a good chance to stay away from the dry slot in northern Westchester... does anybody agree?

West of the Hudson has the best chance

[donsutherland1]

Three photos from late this morning

[sussexcountyobs]

Just measured 12.5"

Heavy snow falling

20°