Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[sussexcountyobs]

With almost 5" otg , just listened to my forecast on my little NOAA weather radio. They are calling for another 14-22" today and tonight. Plus a couple inches tomorrow morning. LOL! Glad I'm off today.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Snow has really lightened here for the moment. Estimating 8" (maybe 9") of accumulation.

Current temp 27/DP 25

we seem to have done real well in our area this time out; this is a good snowfall for us even if it stops here ( though I am assured it will commence once again; right now not much going on and don't know how long we sleeted ) so I will clean up soon in anticipation of more; I'm seeing various reports here that do make me wonder if we will have tons more, but I'm always a bit skeptical. Looks real nice out. Some decent drifts. 

[Rjay]

Off to work.  Gorgeous out.  

[lee59]

Snow has really slackened off here. Very inconsistent snow rates. 29 degrees

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Rjay said:

Off to work.  Gorgeous out.  

Indeed. Stay safe and be careful. 

[wdrag]

Good morning: straight cut and paste on the NOWcast for today only. Left the graphics on the topic thread.  Dangerous storm today. Safety first.  DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA.  

Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. 

 

Expecting per modeling 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties),  ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. 

Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC.  

Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Looks to be about 6” to 7” with heavy snow, coastal really starting to crank per radar

Are we in a lull or is this the dry slot NWS was hinting out? They mention something in Mt Holly, but did not seem to think it would be persistent, if I read correctly.

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Snow has really slackened off here. Very inconsistent snow rates. 29 degrees

Showery event this morning. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, wdrag said:

Good morning: straight cut and paste on the NOWcast for today only. Left the graphics on the topic thread.  Dangerous storm today. Safety first.  DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA.  

Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. 

 

 

Expecting per modeling 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties),  ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. 

Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC.  

Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles. 

So this lull is temporary then....sounds like a good time to do some cleanup while the opportunity exists....

[Jt17]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

So this lull is temporary then....sounds like a good time to do some cleanup while the opportunity exists....

The storm has  barely started, we were supposed to have very little snow at this point (we're definitely ahead of schedule snow totals wise) and based on all guidance the significant snows are going to last until the late evening/early Tuesday. It's a long duration storm.

[A_Status]

4" in Flatbush, Brooklyn.  Light snow, currently.

[Nick021166]

Sleet in flemington, NJ. Hate to see it 

[Franklin0529]

This storm has bust written all over it. Pouring rain down the shore. Was forecast 16" here. Got about 4 now it's pouring.  Hope to see change back over

[jm1220]

27-28 degrees here, already 34 in Montauk. That’s unfortunately why amounts will be substantially less out there where it’s already above 32. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This storm has bust written all over it. Pouring rain down the shore. Was forecast 16" here. Got about 4 now it's pouring.  Hope to see change back over

Wow. Belford is not " down the shore" its Raritan Bay, a few miles across from SI. No question that is very concerning. With sleet seen well into west central NJ already, one can't help but wonder. Still, everyone seems confident of a massive amount of snow coming.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Wow. Belford is not " down the shore" its Raritan Bay, a few miles across from SI. No question that is very concerning. With sleet seen well into west central NJ already, one can't help but wonder. Still, everyone seems confident of a massive amount of snow coming.

Yea its not good.  Storm is tucked in way too close. Gonna be a lot disappointed folks today I think 

[wxman]

6" down. Temp 24.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea its not good.  Storm is tucked in way too close. Gonna be a lot disappointed folks today I think 

I'd rather let things play out first before sounding the alarm.

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Wow. Belford is not " down the shore" its Raritan Bay, a few miles across from SI. No question that is very concerning. With sleet seen well into west central NJ already, one can't help but wonder. Still, everyone seems confident of a massive amount of snow coming.

Precip is very light hence the sleet. We're still waiting for the coastal to fully take control. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I'd rather let things play out first before sounding the alarm.

Precip is very light hence the sleet. We're still waiting for the coastal to fully take control. 

Still it might be wise to do some cleaning up in anticipation of later precip, come what may. waiting for a little more light.

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This storm has bust written all over it. Pouring rain down the shore. Was forecast 16" here. Got about 4 now it's pouring.  Hope to see change back over

What is your temperature?

[bluewave]

31° with light snow here in SW Suffolk. Was moderate a little while ago.

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What is your temperature?

35. 

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea its not good.  Storm is tucked in way too close. Gonna be a lot disappointed folks today I think 

I think you need to give it some more time.

I would like to see some more radar activity of the transition. Then lets see where shore temps stand.

 

In fairness, shore mixing was always modeled. I read “that wont happen” many times haha

[BxEngine]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

35. 

You on a boat in the ocean somewhere?

[NJsnow89]

Getting sleet here in Piscataway Nj. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, BxEngine said:

You on a boat in the ocean somewhere?

Its pouring rain. What do u want me to tell ya lol. I wish it was snow 

[SnoSki14]

Personally I'd be pretty satisfied with the current 6" I have. Getting two 6"+ storms in what was supposed to be a dud winter is a win. 

No need to panic yet. Miller Bs can have a lull period before they really get going.

[Jt17]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Its pouring rain. What do u want me to tell ya lol. I wish it was snow 

Ugh that stinks, but let the coastal do it's thing and it should turn to snow for a good chunk of the day, though where you are mixing/rain will definitely come back for some time at the end.

[Northof78]

Looks like a wall of heavy precipitation making its way NNW from S/C NJ via the coastal, should take about an hour or so envelope most of the area

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

35. 

Hmm? Where are you? Down by LBI , or right by the ocean somewhere in south Jersey?