Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC CP officially 2.0" yesterday. Jan 2.1   Presume that's not near the record low snow for Jan. 

The record low in January is 0.0”, which occurred in 1890.

[MJO812]

 HRRR is still insisting of bringing in sleet during the morning hours in NYC. Hope it is wrong.

[jdt]

4.7” as of 3:45am. Sparta, NW NJ.

[Fishmn]

Currently not precipitating. Just shoveled the driveway fpr round 1. Started to sleet heavily for 15 minutes then stopped doing anything. The AccuWeather Channel keeps saying only 6 more inches today for my area. Starting to worry about a bust low.

25F 6.5" calm winds in Western Hunterdon Co.

 

[Heisy]

Dover NJ,  I never measure for some reason. I suspect I will have no way to eyeball this one. I forgot how much more wind you guys get up this way. I have drifting already this is going to be wild. 

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 HRRR is still insisting of bringing in sleet during the morning hours in NYC. Hope it is wrong.

It's not. Getting sleet in north central NJ. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not. Getting sleet in north central NJ. 

Rgem has no sleet at all

Nam has no sleet at all

The rain snow line is supposed to stop around Central NJ and then collapse down. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem has no sleet at all

Nam has no sleet at all

The rain snow line is supposed to stop around Central NJ and then collapse down. 

If there's an explosion of precip like the Rgem/Nam or Euro show then yes that'll collapse down. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If there's an explosion of precip like the Rgem/Nam or Euro show then yes that'll collapse down. 

Gfs

[MJO812]

Gfs upped the ante

 

Fun afternoon ahead

 

Time to get some rest

 

Be back in a few hours 

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs upped the ante

 

Fun afternoon ahead

 

Time to get some rest

 

Be back in a few hours 

Haha I have the same issue. Our weenie minds don’t let us sleep. Try to get as much as you can now. I got 3 or 4 hours tonight so far

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs upped the ante

 

Fun afternoon ahead

 

Time to get some rest

 

Be back in a few hours 

The parallel has double the snowfall through 18z for NYC. 

[tim]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Temperature up to 28 degrees here, it was about 23 at 9pm. A few inches on the ground and snowing lightly.

...same here 23* @ 9pm..temp now 29.7* @ 5am..think the c/o is inevitable..about 2" OTG..probably

looking @ the lower end of the 5-8" of snow here on ELI..hope i'm wrong but thats my gut talking..

[Snowlover11]

for giggles anyone have the gfs snow map? off to bed for a few hours.

Yonkers

22F

very light snow

3.5”

[tek1972]

...same here 23* @ 9pm..temp now 29.7* @ 5am..think the c/o is inevitable..about 2" OTG..probably
looking @ the lower end of the 5-8" of snow here on ELI..hope i'm wrong but thats my gut talking..

31 in Mastic. Changeover is definitely coming

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The parallel has double the snowfall through 18z for NYC. 

What are your thoughts on the models?

Is the benign HRRR out to lunch here.

[donsutherland1]

I favor the higher ones. The ECMWF has a good track record. The NAM and RGEM are within their best range. The GFSv16 has been very consistent and did well with the December storm. Sometimes the HRRR takes time to “catch on.” The GFS is a caution flag, but not enough to think the forecast is in trouble.

[psv88]

Getting smacked under these ocean bands. Massive flakes. 
 

love seeing the NAM give LI 30”. Wow

[jm1220]

Moderate snow and big flakes falling currently. Haven't measured yet but looks like a few inches or so. 

Fun fun day upcoming. 6z models all have upwards of 17-20" to come for my backyard through NYC. 

[dmillz25]

Eyeballing 6” here in bed stuy Brooklyn 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I favor the higher ones. The ECMWF has a good track record. The NAM and RGEM are within their best range. The GFSv16 has been very consistent and did well with the December storm. Sometimes the HRRR takes time to “catch on.” The GFS is a caution flag, but not enough to think the forecast is in trouble.

Hopefully that's the case. The latest HRRR only gives us another 6-8" which isn't bad of course but would be a significant bust.

[Wxnyc]

Don’t kill me for saying this , but precipitation looks very spotty. I don’t see this all coming together as modeled or planned. Radar is not impressive at all this early morning.

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

Don’t kill me for saying this , but precipitation looks very spotty. I don’t see this all coming together as modeled or planned. Radar is not impressive at all this early morning.

The coastal is in the process of forming. Fgen band still hours away from forming

[tim]

...up to 30.2*..slop fest incoming.

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

Don’t kill me for saying this , but precipitation looks very spotty. I don’t see this all coming together as modeled or planned. Radar is not impressive at all this early morning.

You might want to wait a few hours

[lee59]

29 degrees heavy snow

[sussexcountyobs]

Just measured @ 5:45am.

4.6" so far.

Temp. 17.1° Mod/heavy snow falling 

[Rtd208]

Snow has really lightened here for the moment. Estimating 8" (maybe 9") of accumulation.

Current temp 27/DP 25

[Jt17]

Snowing at a pretty decent clip here in Flushing Queens... surprising when looking at the radar. In any case the snow totals seems to be way ahead of schedule for a big chunk of the sub-forum, considering the main event hasn't even started and the main event is quite long at that!

[Northof78]

Looks to be about 6” to 7” with heavy snow, coastal really starting to crank per radar