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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


wdrag
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Currently not precipitating. Just shoveled the driveway fpr round 1. Started to sleet heavily for 15 minutes then stopped doing anything. The AccuWeather Channel keeps saying only 6 more inches today for my area. Starting to worry about a bust low.

25F 6.5" calm winds in Western Hunterdon Co.

 

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Temperature up to 28 degrees here, it was about 23 at 9pm. A few inches on the ground and snowing lightly.

...same here 23* @ 9pm..temp now 29.7* @ 5am..think the c/o is inevitable..about 2" OTG..probably

looking @ the lower end of the 5-8" of snow here on ELI..hope i'm wrong but thats my gut talking..

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...same here 23* @ 9pm..temp now 29.7* @ 5am..think the c/o is inevitable..about 2" OTG..probably
looking @ the lower end of the 5-8" of snow here on ELI..hope i'm wrong but thats my gut talking..
31 in Mastic. Changeover is definitely coming

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

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13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I favor the higher ones. The ECMWF has a good track record. The NAM and RGEM are within their best range. The GFSv16 has been very consistent and did well with the December storm. Sometimes the HRRR takes time to “catch on.” The GFS is a caution flag, but not enough to think the forecast is in trouble.

Hopefully that's the case. The latest HRRR only gives us another 6-8" which isn't bad of course but would be a significant bust.

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3 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

Don’t kill me for saying this , but precipitation looks very spotty. I don’t see this all coming together as modeled or planned. Radar is not impressive at all this early morning.

The coastal is in the process of forming. Fgen band still hours away from forming

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Snowing at a pretty decent clip here in Flushing Queens... surprising when looking at the radar. In any case the snow totals seems to be way ahead of schedule for a big chunk of the sub-forum, considering the main event hasn't even started and the main event is quite long at that!

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