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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


wdrag
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3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.

HRRR depicting sleet/mix into the system just after noon. What are your thoughts on this? The threat of ANY mixing would've been for monday late evening or night, NOT noon monday! That should be CCB own age time. Is it the HRRR just warming mid-levels too soon? The low does seem to track too close to the coast, but not sure it is accurate. Don't see that on the other models. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Pete Lymberopoulos said:

HRRR depicting sleet/mix into the system just after noon. What are your thoughts on this? The threat of ANY mixing would've been for monday late evening or night, NOT noon monday! That should be CCB own age time. Is it the HRRR just warming mid-levels too soon? The low does seem to track too close to the coast, but not sure it is accurate. Don't see that on the other models. 

 

Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.

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3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.

Thank you. I figured it was off. Even precipitation to its west was all over the place. Not even correct unreal time. When can we expect a true model representation of where these CCB bands will set up shop? Curious as CCB's are hard to pinpoint. Thanks again. 

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Just now, Pete Lymberopoulos said:

Thank you. I figured it was off. Even precipitation to its west was all over the place. Not even correct unreal time. When can we expect a true model representation of where these CCB bands will set up shop? Curious as CCB's are hard to pinpoint. Thanks again. 

At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon. 

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43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Another inch the last hour, so we're up to 6.0" as of 12:00 am in Metuchen.  Still 23F.  

Snow was a bit lighter the last hour, so as of 1 am we have 6.5" in Metuchen (1/2" last hour) and it's still 23F.  I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow, since I've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.  

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Just now, psv88 said:

Euro 20+” all the way into northern suffolk. Nothing like seeing the best model have the snowiest run during the storm. 

Happy I chose northern NJ to chase! I feel bad for my brethren down in Philly if 00z euro comes to pass but this would be top 5 snowstorm I’ve ever witnessed. Anyone have wxbell maps?

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon. 

Yes, seen several waves pushing through headed north on those panels. As much as we strive to get these snow totals, its actually refreshing to know we can never even try to predict where these CCB bands will setup. I love the randomness of it all. Leaves something to the imagination instead of constantly insisting to have an answer for everything. I would say prime rapid accumulation hours on monday would be from 11am to 6pm. Would that sound correct to you? 

 

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1 minute ago, PeteThe Greek said:

Yes, seen several waves pushing through headed north on those panels. As much as we strive to get these snow totals, its actually refreshing to know we can never even try to predict where these CCB bands will setup. I love the randomness of it all. Leaves something to the imagination instead of constantly insisting to have an answer for everything. I would say prime rapid accumulation hours on monday would be from 11am to 6pm. Would that sound correct to you? 

 

Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.

Oh I'll be checking the radar... ALL day, trust me! We don't get storms like this everyday around these parts! We could be looking at a top 5 all time stormIF everything goes right. At least top 5-7. Thank you for your input! 

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