Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[Gravity Wave]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

5 inches of snow otg at midnight.  I think I'm gonna end up with 2 feet at this rate.

HRRR didn't have anyone in the City reaching the 3" mark until about 2:30 this morning. No question this is overperforming so far.

[Snowlover11]

Moderate snow in yonkers

20F

gotta be over 2” eyeballing.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I doubt I will live long enough to see a better set up for my location. Currently we are pushing 6 inches hours before the main ccb Ownage! Weeeeeeee rippppppp

This is one of the best setups the area has had period not often you get the benefit of both waa snow and coastal snow. 

[Allsnow]

Peak CCB Ownage will be tomorrow during the day! Rest up everyone and take it all in! This will be historic 

[omo_yankee]

about 4" now in Union County. finally catching up to CNJ after fighting all that dry air

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 11 pm, we're up to 5.0" in Metuchen, with the heavist snowfall of the night - 1" last hour.  Still 23F.  

Another inch the last hour, so we're up to 6.0" as of 12:00 am in Metuchen.  Still 23F.  

[kat5hurricane]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Peak CCB Ownage will be tomorrow during the day! Rest up everyone and take it all in! This will be historic 

Daytime CCB Ownage is the best kind of CCB Ownage. That's what we had in January 2016, the last real big snowstorm in my area.

[winterwarlock]

6 inches Belle Mead NJ

[omo_yankee]

we are going to lull for a bit, look at the radar. nobody panic

[Ericjcrash]

14 minutes ago, omo_yankee said:

we are going to lull for a bit, look at the radar. nobody panic

Looks pretty good to me, moisture feeding in from the south. Pissed I'm missing this.

[NJsnow89]

Hear pinging in middlesex county NJ. Sleet mixing in

[Gravity Wave]

4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.

[Ericjcrash]

Euro is obscene. My God. Dumpage 

[PeteThe Greek]

3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.

HRRR depicting sleet/mix into the system just after noon. What are your thoughts on this? The threat of ANY mixing would've been for monday late evening or night, NOT noon monday! That should be CCB own age time. Is it the HRRR just warming mid-levels too soon? The low does seem to track too close to the coast, but not sure it is accurate. Don't see that on the other models. 

 

[Gravity Wave]

3 minutes ago, Pete Lymberopoulos said:

HRRR depicting sleet/mix into the system just after noon. What are your thoughts on this? The threat of ANY mixing would've been for monday late evening or night, NOT noon monday! That should be CCB own age time. Is it the HRRR just warming mid-levels too soon? The low does seem to track too close to the coast, but not sure it is accurate. Don't see that on the other models. 

 

Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.

[Ericjcrash]

nice.

[nightknights]

21 degrees  92% humidity BP down to 30.06 from 30.23 winds about 4 mph moderate snow about 4-5 inches

[SnowGoose69]

33 minutes ago, omo_yankee said:

we are going to lull for a bit, look at the radar. nobody panic

The dry slot will get close.  All models sort of show that.  At any given point late tonight and most of tomorrow NYC might only be 30-50 miles on a line north of the dry slot   

[tmlott40]

6.5 inches in Hillsborugh, NJ at 12:30am

[PeteThe Greek]

3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.

Thank you. I figured it was off. Even precipitation to its west was all over the place. Not even correct unreal time. When can we expect a true model representation of where these CCB bands will set up shop? Curious as CCB's are hard to pinpoint. Thanks again. 

[Gravity Wave]

Just now, Pete Lymberopoulos said:

Thank you. I figured it was off. Even precipitation to its west was all over the place. Not even correct unreal time. When can we expect a true model representation of where these CCB bands will set up shop? Curious as CCB's are hard to pinpoint. Thanks again. 

At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon. 

[Santa Claus]

CNJ seems way ahead of schedule

some guy with FWD has been spinning his wheels for 20 minutes trying to get off the street.  wasn't expecting that snow depth til morning.

[psv88]

Euro 20+” all the way into northern suffolk. Nothing like seeing the best model have the snowiest run during the storm. 

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Another inch the last hour, so we're up to 6.0" as of 12:00 am in Metuchen.  Still 23F.  

Snow was a bit lighter the last hour, so as of 1 am we have 6.5" in Metuchen (1/2" last hour) and it's still 23F.  I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow, since I've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.  

[Heisy]

Just now, psv88 said:

Euro 20+” all the way into northern suffolk. Nothing like seeing the best model have the snowiest run during the storm. 

Happy I chose northern NJ to chase! I feel bad for my brethren down in Philly if 00z euro comes to pass but this would be top 5 snowstorm I’ve ever witnessed. Anyone have wxbell maps?

[Nibor]

Just went on a small Jebwalk. Amazing outside. I'm too hyped on Adrenalin now to sleep. Time for some beer.

[PeteThe Greek]

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon. 

Yes, seen several waves pushing through headed north on those panels. As much as we strive to get these snow totals, its actually refreshing to know we can never even try to predict where these CCB bands will setup. I love the randomness of it all. Leaves something to the imagination instead of constantly insisting to have an answer for everything. I would say prime rapid accumulation hours on monday would be from 11am to 6pm. Would that sound correct to you? 

 

[PeteThe Greek]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro 20+” all the way into northern suffolk. Nothing like seeing the best model have the snowiest run during the storm. 

Can you post a panel? I don't think Tropical Tidbits that I use has snowfall total panels.Correct me if I am wrong. Thanks! 

 

[Gravity Wave]

1 minute ago, PeteThe Greek said:

Yes, seen several waves pushing through headed north on those panels. As much as we strive to get these snow totals, its actually refreshing to know we can never even try to predict where these CCB bands will setup. I love the randomness of it all. Leaves something to the imagination instead of constantly insisting to have an answer for everything. I would say prime rapid accumulation hours on monday would be from 11am to 6pm. Would that sound correct to you? 

 

Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.

[PeteThe Greek]

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.

Oh I'll be checking the radar... ALL day, trust me! We don't get storms like this everyday around these parts! We could be looking at a top 5 all time stormIF everything goes right. At least top 5-7. Thank you for your input!