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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Up to 4.0" as of 10 pm in Metuchen - 1/2" over the last half hour.  Temp steady at 23F.  It's freakin' gorgeous out there - go take a walk if you haven't yet...

As of 11 pm, we're up to 5.0" in Metuchen, with the heavist snowfall of the night - 1" last hour.  Still 23F.  

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This may also be obvious, but I'm hyped up on snow fumes, lol.  With 5" down here and in many other locations in CNJ (and other locations, like EPA and soon in NNJ/NYC), at the rate we're going, we should have 7-9" by 7 am (6 hours), assuming 2-4" more by then.  And if the coastal cranks up and delivers the 10-14" of heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm shown by all of the models, some are going to see totals of 17-23" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot or nuts shooting lasers at the sky to kill the snow.  

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2" on the UES with moderate snow and really nice flake size. Looks like the radar is filling in in CNJ, should provide a great base for the CCB to do its damage tomorrow.

Another thing to note: KNYC has reported a total liquid equivalent of .11" since the snow started, and I assume that they have the same accumulations I do (the castle is about a mile to my NW). This would indicate excellent ratios, which isn't a surprise given it's only 22 degrees here at the moment.

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

2" on the UES with moderate snow and really nice flake size. Looks like the radar is filling in in CNJ, should provide a great base for the CCB to do its damage tomorrow.

Another thing to note: KNYC has reported a total liquid equivalent of .11" since the snow started, and I assume that they have the same accumulations I do (the castle is about a mile to my NW). This would indicate excellent ratios, which isn't a surprise given it's only 22 degrees here at the moment.

I'd venture to guess there's a bit of a delay in their estimates, right?

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