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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Just seems strange that the 12/09 and 2.83 events which had pretty similar setups in regard to that insane easterly inflow had widespread TSSN and this one did not...those were more in the Miller A type category however (not sure 83 was a true Miller A but it was not a B). so might be more involved.

Does it have anything to do with the depth of the cold air mass? It's only 27 degrees here which is actually the warmest it's been in a few days.

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Nibor
Nibor
forkyfork
forkyfork

so the december snow statistic rule works out again

forkyfork
forkyfork

very impressive. it's consolidating right over the metro

Posted Images

weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS just just gave hope for many, as they updated all their warnings/advisories (edited to make it legible). Wish they would've put together a map of snowfall still to come, but this says it in text form, but they did at least update the overall event map, so if you know what you have, you can see what they think is coming, by difference. 4-7" more for all of CNJ. Not sure I'm buying it, but we'll see. Would also be nice for all the snow weenies in the Philly/SNJ/Trenton areas who have gotten shafted so far get at least some more.  

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

4-7" more for Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks

4-8" more fo Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester

7-10" more for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton

3-5" more for Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington

3-6" more for New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

tJHZEXu.png

We will need to get crankin and soon to hit 20; doable but it needs to actually start snowing at a decent clip again. Can't complain though eh? Lots 0f 12-15 in our area and into SI.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, NJwx85 said:

Does it have anything to do with the depth of the cold air mass? It's only 27 degrees here which is actually the warmest it's been in a few days.

83 I think had a much better air mass in place, 09 was pretty meh...both events the TSSN corridor was pretty much at the back edge where the 650-850 erly jet speed dropped off.  In 83 that was NNJ and NYC, 09 it was SW NJ...today it should have been in the area bounded by ABE/TTN/FWN roughly.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

5:15 MT. ARLINGTON NJ

Moderate snow ongoing - on average 1" per hour.

Storm total and snow depth 21.5".

Picked up 2.5" during last 2 hours.

Temp 25.

Drifting in open area nearing 36" in spots.  Deep enough that walking was near impossible.

Persistent band seems to be setting up in my area with echos moving NE to SW overhead.

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richm20

richm20

Posted
Posted
Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

moderate sleet.

the evening air is filled by the sounds of pinging ice and revving car engines.  stop trying to drive please.

You mean learn how to drive in the snow or say home! Roads are fine if you know how to drive and you have a capable vehicle. 

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I’m a few miles to your south and it’s been at 32 for the past hour or so here. No changeover as of yet.

...while shoveling in did turn to rain only for a brief period..back to snow/mix now..

31.3*..it was steady @ 31.1 all day..calling it a foot + whatever comes later..

...whats that saying.."be careful what you wish for?..well this old man can't do the shoveling anymore..lol !

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

25.6” as of 5:15pm. Sparta, NW NJ. Due to compaction snow depth closer to 22-23”. Intensity has backed of and thus snow a little more gritty now with less fluff factor. My guess snow rates here will be closer to 0.5”/hr thru the remainder of the evening.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Looks like the S Nassau sucker hole is filling in and it's my turn now. :lol: 

Upton has generally 1-3" additional east of the city after 7pm. So that would get me to probably 14-17". My backyard has 12" depth fairly consistently which is probably compacted some at this point so I might've had 13-14" fall. 

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

 

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS just just gave hope for many, as they updated all their warnings/advisories (edited to make it legible). Wish they would've put together a map of snowfall still to come, but this says it in text form, but they did at least update the overall event map, so if you know what you have, you can see what they think is coming, by difference. 4-7" more for all of CNJ. Not sure I'm buying it, but we'll see. Would also be nice for all the snow weenies in the Philly/SNJ/Trenton areas who have gotten shafted so far get at least some more.  

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

4-7" more for Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks

4-8" more fo Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester

7-10" more for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton

3-5" more for Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington

3-6" more for New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

tJHZEXu.png

Stating the obvious, but looking at a map like the above makes it so clear what the models and the mets have cut out for them trying to forecast a storm like this, when you see how that 4-6 runs up the coast in NJ, meanwhile 30 miles to the NE across the Atlantic, the south shore of Nassau is at 12+.    To be able to predict anything close to that as has been done, is impressive.  Then look at how that r/s line lined up beneath LI in Nassau, nudging north onto land in Suffolk as you go east.  That thing's been predicted by many here for three or four days.  Even going back to wdrag creating the original thread a week ago!  I know you guys set the bar high for yourselves, but that's pretty cool.  We take for granted like it's common knowledge that this storm would form off the coast as it did, where it did, when it did, right on schedule.  You all have a thankless job.  Ok, that's all.  As always, always a blast following these storms here.

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wishcast_hater

wishcast_hater

Posted
Posted

I just got out of the hot tub with my son. Heavy snow turned has turned to more of a frozen sleet type of dendrite all the way up here in Duchess. It’s not bona fide sleet but the characteristic of the snow definitely changed from powder to a more frozen type of precipitation. Not sure why. Hope that is short lived. 

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