Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 and heavy snow continues. 1-2 per hour rates. 

[wxallannj]

On 1/30/2021 at 5:47 PM, dave0176 said:

We get 12-18” of snow it’s gonna be interesting driving to customers houses for gas leaks and no heats lol Lotta OT coming...........

Worse up here in Clifton. 20 inches, glad I am a retired dispatcher, Northern Gas

[Heisy]

This band over dover NJ is just locked in at this spot. Thought it was gonna go west it’s actually sunk south. It hasn’t left in over 2 hours I have just enough latitude. Have to have close to 20. Anyone live near dover that has a official total?

[Poker2015]

Finally back to light snow for the past hour or so...anyone in my area measure lately? I know Somerville was at 18 inches around 12pm...maybe we picked up an inch since then...need another band to come through

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, scoobydoo1 said:

Ummmm...ok.

Whatever you say buddy.

9 miles is quite a ways.

 

So the trained spooter in somerville I guess was lying too.....

Its possible; I have close to 15 in Woodbridge and it stopped snowing hours ago; been sleet since around noon. If not for that I would think 20 was a real possibility. 

[li_wx88]

In western nassau here, what is the consensus on LI getting more accumulating snow?

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

So much for this dry slot. Just keeps on snowing. 

Yup, and its still cold too, temp back down to 29.8. 

Full out blizzard out there

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Really seeing the pivot and circulation on radar now. This ain’t over by a long shot. 

It's been over for some of us for awhile already.....hasn't snowed here in hours. Heavy then light sleet. Dry slot too. But we had a great go of it for several hours this morning, where it came down heavy.

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Nick's Hometown Grille

I'm a couple of miles northwest of there, but a good friend literally lives right behind Nicks on Marlan.  Ironically, this is the friend who is always pinging me for snowfall forecasts.

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

dryslot from hell, its gunna be a while before snow returns here in lower westchester(yonkers)

Can't get it goin much here either; mix and dry slot, if they are in the picture at all, will always find a way to sneak in at my location. I expect it. It may have to do with Raritan Bay, I don't know.

[SI Mailman]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

It's been over for some of us for awhile already.....hasn't snowed here in hours. Heavy then light sleet. Dry slot too. But we had a great go of it for several hours this morning, where it came down heavy.

I'm 5 miles to your east and currently snowing.  

[scoobydoo1]

2 hours ago, wxman said:

I don't question very often but I checked radar returns, no one within 30 miles got 90% more snow than where I am during the same period.  I have 20 plus around my house near the roof line but in the flat its 10 to 12.  Nothing is impossible but I say people are likely measuring roof blow off or drifts.  

Prior to the dry slotting....EPIC radar returns persisted overhead for a good hour and a half......

During that time there was zero precipitation of any kind what so ever.   

No sleet, no nothin.....barely any pixy dust floating around either.

Cleaned off the cars again, chatted with the neighbors etc.......

So much for "radar returns"

I don't know what your total is thus far.

But that onshore band had dropped waffle sized snowflakes for 2 hours leading up to noon..  Never saw anything like it...Light and fluffy waffles at that, which was crazy.

[NorthShoreWx]

0z NAM had us going above freezing (33) by 5pm.  Instead we've fallen a degree back to 29 over the past 30 minutes.  Not sure what that means, except that the snow won't be too heavy to shovel yet...and I'm heading out now with shovel in hand.

29, light to moderate snow.  Wind is strong gusting much more frequently than before.

It's a technicality, but I think not doing a blizzard warning was actually the right call.  The wording is somewhat subjective, but allows for a warning if there are frequent gusts over 35mph.  They weren't especially frequent before.  They are now, but the viz is up a bit.  Can't speak for the entire island, but that's how I'm seeing it.

 

Edit, Smithtown, NY (2N Smithtown)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

16 inches as of 4:30 and pouring snow

[jm1220]

Snow depth in my backyard's a pretty consistent 12" now. Still coming down nicely. Becoming a little windier if anything. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

I'm 5 miles to your east and currently snowing.  

In Jan 2018 the bands were stopping at the river. The same may be true now. Very light sleet right now; even if it changes to snow it is too light to do much. Haven't looked at radar. We need some heavier bands if we are gonna add to this over here.

[SnowGoose69]

How warm is LI Sound this year?  So warm NYC is 32 and LGA 33 while JFK is 30!

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm a couple of miles northwest of there, but a good friend literally lives right behind Nicks on Marlan.  Ironically, this is the friend who is always pinging me for snowfall forecasts.

My sister lives on Hurtin Blvd. Before that she lived a few miles away in one of the coops. 

[Snowlover11]

nice band developing to the southeast over long island should push into northern nyc/lower westchester 

[Cfa]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0z NAM had us going above freezing (33) by 5pm.  Instead we've fallen a degree back to 29 over the past 30 minutes.  Not sure what that means, except that the snow won't be too heavy to shovel yet...and I'm heading out now with shovel in hand.

29, light to moderate snow.  Wind is strong gusting much more frequently than before.

It's a technicality, but I think not doing a bloizzard warning was actually the right call.  The wording is somewhat subjective, but allows for a warning if there are frequent gusts over 35mph.  They weren't especially frequent before.  They are now, but the viz is up a bit.  Can't speak for the entire island, but that's how I'm seeing it.

I’m a few miles to your south and it’s been at 32 for the past hour or so here. No changeover as of yet.

[RU848789]

NWS just just gave hope for many, as they updated all their warnings/advisories (edited to make it legible). Wish they would've put together a map of snowfall still to come, but this says it in text form, but they did at least update the overall event map, so if you know what you have, you can see what they think is coming, by difference. 4-7" more for all of CNJ. Not sure I'm buying it, but we'll see. Would also be nice for all the snow weenies in the Philly/SNJ/Trenton areas who have gotten shafted so far get at least some more.  

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

4-7" more for Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks

4-8" more fo Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester

7-10" more for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton

3-5" more for Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington

3-6" more for New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

[SnowGoose69]

I believe the lack of thundersnow might be the result of milder ocean temps.  The east flow in the 600-650 layer probably causing warmer temps, less instability than normal.   This is a storm that 20-30 years ago would have almost certainly have had widespread TSSN.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe the lack of thundersnow might be the result of milder ocean temps.  The east flow in the 600-650 layer probably causing warmer temps, less instability than normal.   This is a storm that 20-30 years ago would have almost certainly have had widespread TSSN.

Warmer water should have created moisture and elevated instability though.

[SI Mailman]

14 inches on the ground at 5 PM.  

[NJwx85]

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

How warm is LI Sound this year?  So warm NYC is 32 and LGA 33 while JFK is 30!

Most Wunderground stations up here near where the Sound is thicker are at 29-30 degrees. South shore stations are at 32. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Warmer water should have created moisture and elevated instability though.

Just seems strange that the 12/09 and 2.83 events which had pretty similar setups in regard to that insane easterly inflow had widespread TSSN and this one did not...those were more in the Miller A type category however (not sure 83 was a true Miller A but it was not a B). so might be more involved.

[jm1220]

Montauk's still at 33, models had them a good 5 degrees warmer than now. Later tonight when things really do die off and upper air temps warm up there could be some nasty glaze if we have drizzle for a while. 

[Metasequoia]

Just now, weatherfreeeeak said:

Any ideas for NYC and nearby Suburbs for when we expect the sleet to change back over to snow? 

Still snowing in southern Manhattan...never stopped.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, weatherfreeeeak said:

Any ideas for NYC and nearby Suburbs for when we expect the sleet to change back over to snow? 

Might need to see 00Z soundings to see how widespread warmth is...I cannot get any aircraft soundings today since there are practically no flights into those 3 airports.  No model showed 925 or 850 getting that far west til tonight if at all so its likely random little layers here or there at 750-875 that are 0.1 or 0.2C