Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[lee59]

Light snow here but the wind has really picked up, gusting to 40mph at my house. I would estimate some 10 inches of snow 

[MJO812]

This looks like a general 12-18 inch storm for the NYC metro

[Islandersguy]

Snow picking up in White Plains. Praying for no sleet and for this pivot to eventually give us another crazy band.

[Blizzardo]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Not far from you. Maybe it will flip back. Insane winds now. Stopped hearing pinging but no flip to snow. Precip seems to have stopped.

Going back to snow now.

[dave0176]

I think we’re starting to get freezing rain in New Brunswick 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Don’t see how anyone in the metro gets 20 now actually this sleet came in fast and we are about to dry slot 

it didn't just dry slot  the skies brightened lol, people think the storm is over and are out snowblowing.

 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Most of the five boros have reports of 15+ inches already with plenty of time left to tack on 5 more inches. Eventually the radar will fill back in and it won't take very much to get 20 inch totals. I think people just expect snow to arrive in a far more linear way than it actually does. As we've seen, it comes in waves. 

I think most of the NYC metro still has a shot at 18-20". But I don't think the radar will fully fill back in. There is some regeneration of bands ongoing over the Atlantic, but the best mid-level lift has shifted NW and will likely rotate into extreme NWNJ, NEPA, and SENY. I hope I'm wrong and widespread heavy snow regenerates over the entire area, but that's not how it looks to me right now.

[jdt]

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

It is a whiteout out there. 3-5"/hr stuff. Once this pivot occurs this band will stall over us

And it’s a beautiful powder. 30” is not out of the question in our area as it stands now. We’ve avoided any sleet and the ratios have to be 12/1 or better I suspect.

[wxman]

18 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I dont know,,there was that one tweet from the guy who said it was snowing in somerville 3.6 inches an hour for 2.5 hours...I think in Hillsborough and Belle Mead we are closer to a foot but Somerville and Bridgewater got into the heavy banding..almost like a summer thrunderstorm 

I don't question very often but I checked radar returns, no one within 30 miles got 90% more snow than where I am during the same period.  I have 20 plus around my house near the roof line but in the flat its 10 to 12.  Nothing is impossible but I say people are likely measuring roof blow off or drifts.  

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, brianinhboro said:

and NWS.  I have freezing rain chewing my 12-15" of snowpack up right now.  No radars have this they all say snow.  #worthless

I'm looking at the soundings for the HRRR and I don't see a warm layer. I think it's just a product of milder air coming in off the ocean at the lowest levels due to the close proximity of the low tracks.

The standard radar that most people use doesn't resolve mixing issues well.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

 

Just went for a walk in that insane snowfall and measured about 12" (tough with the blowing - 12" is the average of about 10 measurements in the back yard, which varied from about 10" to 14" - 2 are on my board, but the board becomes less useful with the wind). That would make about 2" in the last hour, which seems about right given how heavily the snow was falling for that last hour. Since about 11 am, the intensity has dropped off a bit to moderate snowfall (probably 1" per hour stuff).  Temp up to 28F.  

Had light/moderate snow from about 11 am to noon then some heavy snow until close to 1 pm, when I measured 13.5" on average (wide variation) and then the sleet started in earnest and it's been mostly sleet with some snow at times since 1 pm.  Same thing happened in Jan-16 cutting a few inches off the snowfall.  Souds like the snow is moving back east towards us.  NWS still calling for 6-8" more through this evening.  My 19" call is still in range if we go back to snow.  29F here in Metuchen.  

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL at people complaining about getting over a foot of snow.

 

never really thought this would be a historic storm for the highly populated areas, but over a foot is really good, plus looks like we have another coastal coming for next weekend.

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

21 with heavy snow. High ratio snow accumulating quickly. 

[KeithB]

8.4 inches so far in Central Rockland

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm looking at the soundings for the HRRR and I don't see a warm layer. I think it's just a product of milder air coming in off the ocean at the lowest levels due to the close proximity of the low tracks.

The standard radar that most people use doesn't resolve mixing issues well.

Yeah I don't get the sleet....I said we might see a dry slot today but I felt any sleet risk was tonight once the precip was basically shutoff and 925 or 850s on LI went over 0C...the sleet now may just be rogue warm layers of like 0.2C somewhere

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Most of the five boros have reports of 15+ inches already with plenty of time left to tack on 5 more inches. Eventually the radar will fill back in and it won't take very much to get 20 inch totals. I think people just expect snow to arrive in a far more linear way than it actually does. As we've seen, it comes in waves. 

they are spoiled by Jan 2016, thats a one in 30 year storm in terms of how widespread the extremely high snowfall totals were west to east, most snowstorms are more comparable to summertime thunderstorms in terms of who does really well vs who doesn't- primary cases include Feb 2006 and Feb 2013, both of which were amazing but only over small areas.  Rarely do you get big storms that are great for large areas, thats why the historic ones are so rare.

 

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I don't get the sleet....I said we might see a dry slot today but I felt any sleet risk was tonight once the precip was basically shutoff and 925 or 850s on LI went over 0C...the sleet now may just be rogue warm layers of like 0.2C somewhere

It doesn't make much sense to me, but the HRRR depicts the sleet line working well up into the Hudson Valley tonight. If that happens it's going to be hard to get the really big numbers that the NAM was spitting out up this way.

[nycsnow]

Looks like the mix line dissipated over nyc area can anyone confirm? Not that it matters not much precip left 

[SI Mailman]

Looks like I've flipped back to snow here on Staten Island.  

[mikem81]

really very little sleet here in Western Nassau. Smaller flakes with little sleet since the mega bands pushed north and west. Radar trying to redevelop some bands to the SE from coastal...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It doesn't make much sense to me, but the HRRR depicts the sleet line working well up into the Hudson Valley tonight. If that happens it's going to be hard to get the really big numbers that the NAM was spitting out up this way.

a few things might be at play

1) ocean temps are way way above normal (talking about mid to upper 40s)

2) dry air worked into the system from off the ocean and dry air coming from the ocean is usually mild

3) everything was sped up so what was supposed to be happening tonight is happening now

As it is it didn't really matter because the sleet only lasted for half an hour at most and then all precip just stopped.

 

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, patrick05 said:

LOL for all we know it really was 12" by you 

Light snow and wind near exit 44 on Sunrise Highway.  A pickup trucked rammed into the concrete divider. 

[NJwx85]

I can definitely tell the difference with the snow intensity in between bands. The heaviest axis of snow now is from just NW of Philly up to about the Paterson, NJ area. Definitely a larger area of subsidence near Newark.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Looks like the mix line dissipated over nyc area can anyone confirm? 

if by dissipated you mean all precip stopped then sure.

 

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Looks like the mix line dissipated over nyc area can anyone confirm? 

Never changed over here in UWS and still snowing though not as hard as earlier

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I can definitely tell the difference with the snow intensity in between bands. The heaviest axis of snow now is from just NW of Philly up to about the Paterson, NJ area. Definitely a larger area of subsidence near Newark.

when did you move out of NJ?  Randolph has 20" already

[nesussxwx]

9 minutes ago, jdt said:

And it’s a beautiful powder. 30” is not out of the question in our area as it stands now. We’ve avoided any sleet and the ratios have to be 12/1 or better I suspect.

Looks like the pivot is starting to occur too

[mannynyc]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Looks like the mix line dissipated over nyc area can anyone confirm? Not that it matters not much precip left 

It's been light to moderate snow where I am in lower Manhattan. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm looking at the soundings for the HRRR and I don't see a warm layer. I think it's just a product of milder air coming in off the ocean at the lowest levels due to the close proximity of the low tracks.

The standard radar that most people use doesn't resolve mixing issues well.

they are also wrong with seeing precip falling in areas where no precip is falling lol

[BxEngine]

11”. 2” last hr.