Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[LibertyBell]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Dont think thats mix on the hrrr later tnite. 

looks like a dryslot to me

[nflwxman]

The HRRR is a particularly low skill model with a meandering coastal low. For example, look at this 7 hour forecast of the current (10AM) radar. Not a very good representation of the mixing line and the intensity.

[ILoveWinter]

Whether the sleet line makes it into the NYC area later on or not, enjoying a heavy and relatively high ratio snow now in the UWS, pretty awesome stuff!

[BxEngine]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

looks like a dryslot to me

Not where the sounding is. Thats snow. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

That has been reported; I don't remember the sleet, because it was such a wicked and long, and at the time, shocking storm. Seen a few storms nearly as big since then....

if it sleets for a couple of hours in the middle of the night when everyone is sleeping no one will notice lol

[Gravity Wave]

HRRR has been flipping and flopping and its thermals are trash. I've honestly never been impressed with it, it'll sniff out a nut every once in a while but its performance is generally underwhelming.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

That will cut back the snow total, fwiw temp has now climbed up to 30 here in HPN in the past 1/2 hour. Currently 6 inches OTG.

 

It’s not going to mix anytime soon at hpn don’t worry 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, nflwxman said:

The HRRR is a particularly low skill model with a meandering coastal low. For example, look at this 8 hour forecast representing the current radar. Not a very good representation of the mixing line and the intensity.

why do they even use this model and call it "future radar"?

 

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County.  Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes.  Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am.  Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour.  Hard work, but so nice being outside in it.  Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it.  

 

You still use a shovel? God bless you man. I've got a few snowblowers ( long story ) and neighbors asking to borrow; I've told them yes, but I'm not offering tutorials during a pandemic. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

very impressive. it's consolidating right over the metro

Firehose from the metro through N/C NJ.

If this keeps up for a few hours I'll be near 20".

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

if it sleets for a couple of hours in the middle of the night when everyone is sleeping no one will notice lol

Damage is mostly done by then.   You'd lose an inch or two of snow to sleet on top of 20 inches.  Big deal.

[patrick05]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Pretty solid wind too at ISP.

They might verify blizzard conditions if this keeps up...

Easily some of the heaviest rates I've seen so far with this storm

[SI Mailman]

9.5 inches otg, Great Kills Staten Island.  

[forkyfork]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Firehose from the metro through N/C NJ.

If this keeps for a few hours I'll be near 20".

someone near us is getting 30

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

very impressive. it's consolidating right over the metro

Incoming insanity for the NYC area

[jm1220]

Just about heavy snow outside. Like a snow globe. 

[nycsnow]

0 reason we are not under a blizzard warning would’ve been verified already 

[Greg g]

Went out to clean the driveway at 9:15.. had about 6” on the ground in haverstraw in Rockland... another 1 or so since .. starting to come down good now 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Incoming insanity for the NYC area

The winds are insane here with huge flakes

15+ is a good bet , maybe 20+ for the NYC LI areas.

[SI Mailman]

2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

9.5 inches otg, Great Kills Staten Island.  

my dad up the block measured 7.5 an hour ago, so 2 inches fell in the last hour here which makes sense when you look at the radar.  

[Northof78]

[Sampson]

Absolute dumpage! This is turning out to be an incredible event. 

[Allsnow]

Absolutely puking snow here! Over a foot and dumping. Niña February FTW

[MJO812]

Remember when I said I never want blocking ever again ? Without it , this would have been a cutter.

Mjo812 fail

[nycwinter]

as Lloyd lindsay young use to say on his weather forecast  heavy heavy snow..

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

0 reason we are not under a blizzard warning would’ve been verified already 

Maybe? But either way, what does it matter?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Maybe? But either way, what does it matter?

Sounds cool 

[nycwinter]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember when I said I never want blocking ever again ? Without it , this would have been a cutter.

Mjo812 fail

i had similar thoughts..

[hooralph]

Holy crap. curtain is dropping. going from 1/4 mile to two blocks.... Picture soon.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember when I said I never want blocking ever again ? Without it , this would have been a cutter.

Mjo812 fail

Just about the only way something like this can happen in a mid-strong Nina this late in the season. Without it today would have been 55-60 and driving rain and Detroit would be seeing this.