Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

[eyewall]

can we get some blizzard footage or pics in this thread?

[mannynyc]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Current LP (slightly east of RGEM guidance)

Does that suggest that shore lining areas could get more snow than first predicted?  

 

[nflwxman]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Light snow still. Eyeballing it’s about 4 to 5 inches 

Bummer. That's pretty low regionally. Hopefully you make it up on the pivot band coming through in an hour or two.

I would say we are a hair over 7" here.

[Gravity Wave]

Moderate snow on UES Manhattan, hoping those bands to the south drift north soon.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

I’d like to see the northern progression of that dry slot south of LI slow down a bit, but man oh man it’s coming down

As someone posted last night the dry slot may be within 30-50 miles of the city/LI but should stay there until tonight 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The HRRR retrogrades the surface low towards the coast and then stalls it around 22z tonight. This allows for the mixing line to work up into Rockland and Westchester.

Also races the dryslot in for the city and east. The NAM has it being a little delayed and actually has good snow/precip in NYC until dark. Hopefully the NAM's right. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, nflwxman said:

Bummer. That's pretty low regionally. Hopefully you make it up on the pivot band coming through in an hour or two.

It's just been light snow in Rockland so far. Looks to be kicking it up towards moderate over the last 30 minutes.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Also races the dryslot in for the city and east. The NAM has it being a little delayed and actually has good snow/precip in NYC until dark. Hopefully the NAM's right. 

Rgem is all snow for the city through tomorrow 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, nflwxman said:

Bummer. That's pretty low regionally. Hopefully you make it up on the pivot band coming through in an hour or two.

I would say we are a hair over 7" here.

It could be more I haven’t actually been outside but the rates have been light to moderate nothing that heavy yet but I think the true banding will come soon for northern NYC/Northern suburbs 

[NJwx85]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Also races the dryslot in for the city and east. The NAM has it being a little delayed and actually has good snow/precip in NYC until dark. Hopefully the NAM's right. 

From what a few mets on Twitter that I trust have said, the NAM has been too wet and the HRRR has been too dry so far.

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County.  Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes.  Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am.  Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour.  Hard work, but so nice being outside in it.  Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it.  

Or its Sleet....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

[LoboLeader1]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The HRRR retrogrades the surface low towards the coast and then stalls it around 22z tonight. This allows for the mixing line to work up into Rockland and Westchester.

That will cut back the snow total, fwiw temp has now climbed up to 30 here in HPN in the past 1/2 hour. Currently 6 inches OTG.

 

[NJwx85]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem is all snow for the city through tomorrow 

It also pushes the heaviest banding up into NE PA and SE NY by tonight.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

That will cut back the snow total, fwiw temp has now climbed up to 30 here in HPN in the past 1/2 hour. Currently 6 inches OTG.

 

Why is anyone worried about mixing right now especially in the NYC area when we have a long day ahead .

[Rtd208]

Heavy snow here w/gusty winds. Estimating 12.0"-13.0" of snow accumulation.

Temp 28/DP 26

[bluewave]

Nice band of heavy snow across the whole South Shore of Suffolk.

 

MacArthur/ISP  HVY SNOW  31  30  96 NE29G43   29.87F VSB 1/4 WCI  16
Shirley        HVY SNOW  31  28  89 NE12G24   29.90F VSB 1/4 WCI  22
Westhampton    HVY SNOW  32  30  92 NE20G35   29.91F VSB 1/4 WCI  20

 

[Nick021166]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Or its Sleet....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

That band is over my house. Definitely getting some sleet mixing in. The snow is SO heavy as well. But there’s some pings mixes in 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It also pushes the heaviest banding up into NE PA and SE NY by tonight.

Its mostly over by then 

[Northof78]

Just now, Nick021166 said:

That band is over my house. Definitely getting some sleet mixing in. The snow is SO heavy as well. But there’s some pings mixes in 

Just from intensity, same thing happened in 1996 for about 1-2 hours

[weatherpruf]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

some would argue that this was needed to radically change the system (talking in all ways not just the specific thing you highlighted), the status quo was unsustainable and needed a big change. 

 

 The sociology of the school system is in place as much to provide a safe place for kids while parents work (  "in loco parentis " ) as it is for anything else, as we are painfully learning. Likewise, there is little justification to bring many workers to the office when weather is bad, as many things in the financial and tech fields can be done from home. But this also means frontline workers of all stripes bear the brunt of things. Let's all wish them well as they are out there today so that we can stay home safely, whether it's first responders, utility workers, healthcare providers, grocery workers or delivery people. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its mostly over by then 

It's not over until Wednesday. 

[F5TornadoF5]

Pouring Heavy Snow, going to take some measurements in a bit. Would guess around 7-8in with drifts to 2 feet.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Just from intensity, same thing happened in 1996 for about 1-2 hours

That has been reported; I don't remember the sleet, because it was such a wicked and long, and at the time, shocking storm. Seen a few storms nearly as big since then....

[Northof78]

Heavy snow (around 1.0- 1.5"/hr.) and with about 8.5" -9.0" OTG, ratios looks to be at or above 12:1

[BxEngine]

Dont think thats mix on the hrrr later tnite. 

[mikem81]

The HRRR graphics may be showing sleet but soundings show mostly snow profiles..

 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nice band of heavy snow across the whole South Shore of Suffolk.

 

MacArthur/ISP  HVY SNOW  31  30  96 NE29G43   29.87F VSB 1/4 WCI  16
Shirley        HVY SNOW  31  28  89 NE12G24   29.90F VSB 1/4 WCI  22
Westhampton    HVY SNOW  32  30  92 NE20G35   29.91F VSB 1/4 WCI  20

 

Pretty solid wind too at ISP.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

 The sociology of the school system is in place as much to provide a safe place for kids while parents work (  "in loco parentis " ) as it is for anything else, as we are painfully learning. Likewise, there is little justification to bring many workers to the office when weather is bad, as many things in the financial and tech fields can be done from home. But this also means frontline workers of all stripes bear the brunt of things. Let's all wish them well as they are out there today so that we can stay home safely, whether it's first responders, utility workers, healthcare providers, grocery workers or delivery people. 

yes, both our healthcare and education system have been extremely underfunded for decades now, this was a disaster that was predictable from long ago

[Greg g]

Think thundersnow is a possibility with this storm??

[forkyfork]

very impressive. it's consolidating right over the metro