Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Let's stay above the line and not tear up mets. We can end up looking mighty foolish. Good call. On a more lighthearted note the herpderps is a topic of convo all of a sudden. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, paweather said: NE of MDT? Respectful we are I' am not but have you looked at the models today? Yes. Not starting a war. See my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Back in 2000 there was a Miller B that was modeled and forecast to give me 24"+ up until 8 hours before gametime. I ended up with partly cloudy skies. It was an incredible bust. It happens even when every model says it won't. It is 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let's stay above the line and not tear up mets. We can end up looking mighty foolish. Agreed. Mets (well not the ones in this forum which I value higher than others) all say this isn’t a 2’+ storm for the LSV. We have to be happy with whatever we shovel. Let’s hope they are are underplaying and the GFS/Euro are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, paweather said: It is 2020. No it's not. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It is 2020. 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Agreed. Mets (well not the ones in this forum which I value higher than others) all say this isn’t a 2’+ storm for the LSV. We have to be happy with whatever we shovel. Let’s hope they are are underplaying and the GFS/Euro are correct! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Yes. Not starting a war. See my post above. I know your not but what are you starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I’m happy with 4 to 6, way more than I was supposed to get a few days ago. These guys are pros and I’m guessing they see reason to have skepticism with largest model output. Will definitely respect their calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 26°F and calm. About to be a good bit more snow in the yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Let's get to the EURO 0z run please, my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Back in 2000 there was a Miller B that was modeled and forecast to give me 24"+ up until 8 hours before gametime. I ended up with partly cloudy skies. It was an incredible bust. It happens even when every model says it won't. I remember this well! Was 10 at the time and waited all day to see if the returns got closer and they never made it. 8 to 12 forecast, none measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: I remember this well! Was 10 at the time and waited all day to see if the returns got closer and they never made it. 8 to 12 forecast, none measured. you guys have zero clue, Seriously. did you look at the 500????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I also remember one that worked out I think it was January of 2000, we’re supposed to get inch or two and had warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: I also remember one that worked out I think it was January of 2000, we’re supposed to get inch or two and had warning event. Nc and North. That storm helped make these boards more popular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: you guys have zero clue, Seriously. did you look at the 500????? They’re not discounting this storm - just reassuring themselves if it goes haywire. I respect that idea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: you guys have zero clue, Seriously. did you look at the 500????? Relax...no one is starting anything. No one has won or lost until we are measuring & shoveling on Tuesday. Let’s enjoy the journey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism. And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers. @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me. After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Nc and North. That storm helped make these boards more popular. Lol I was so pumped I remember watching college bball night before thinking no biggie then had early dismissal next day with it pouring snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Relax...no one is starting anything. No one has won or lost until we are measuring & shoveling on Tuesday. Let’s enjoy the journey! I'll move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Heard Ukie looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight. Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Heard Ukie looks pretty good. This UKMET 10-1 ratio snow map through Tuesday am. Good run for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Incoming Dynamic system for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight. Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area. Cheers to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This isn't the kind of system where most here outside of maybe the far eastern people near I-81 should expect the best amounts. The coastal redevelopment will take the best dynamics with it, but there's still a very nice easterly moist feed that will keep the snow going over PA and make for very nice amounts but not blockbuster. The 12/5/03 storm could be one to look at for you guys where there was still a good snow event in PA despite there being a coastal redevelopment like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 0z GEFS remained steady with 10 to 14 inches at 10-1 Ratio for most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 0z Canadian ensembles look great yet again! Remarkable totals for an ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 43 minutes ago, paweather said: I'll move on. I'm truly sorry that I upset you. I only wanted to convey a message to keeping our comments above the line. That was all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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