paweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, daxx said: The euro was not consistent at all. The past 36 hours maybe. HUH? Show me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Jonesy56 said: Roller coaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, paweather said: HUH? Show me. Someone already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, daxx said: Someone already has. LOL. EURO has been the most consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Go play the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 If we get that Miller A next weekend with another 12"+, that storm heralds in a significant arctic outbreak with the coldest air of the season. Miller A's are so much less stressful and generally much more reliably modeled since there is no secondary low to worry about. It's been a number of years since we last saw a true Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS needs to be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Hahahaha let’s just discount all of them! They’ve all struggled big time with this storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 We have no idea what model did well since tomorrow is a crapshoot at best. They all sucked and jumped around essentially all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 EURO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Hahahaha let’s just discount all of them! They’ve all struggled big time with this storm. I read a comment in the ma that resonated with me. If you look at it from the angle that the models predicted this convoluted transfer so far out then they did ok. The finer details were not modeled so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 wait is the euro now trying to say south central PA gets almost nothing from this coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS is tucked with little NW precip field. Don’t get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, paweather said: EURO.. Like others have said, it has been consistent for the last day or 2, but it shifted the bullseye around quite a bit this week (look at the post above that showed the Euro run sequence over the last several days). It was the first model to lock in to this event in general earlier this week and now it has locked back in today, but let’s wait until Tuesday morning to declare which model won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS is tucked with little NW precip field. Don’t get it. It will depend on where the CCB sets up tomorrow. The best bands could end up further east or west. If the GFS verified verbatim, I could live with 11 more inches in the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Also the MA thread has devolved into the Anchorman fight scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Lol I’m gonna disregard random snow hole on gfs since it gives lock haven west of me another 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yeah Im in that room atm cause its more active I have no idea why people are getting so testy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Also the MA thread has devolved into the Anchorman fight scene. Everyone has a case of the Miller B's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Also the MA thread has devolved into the Anchorman fight scene. Lmfao. They get soooo crazy. It snowed all day here, looked pretty so it’s a win regardless. Not like this day and age much classifies as a paralyzing storm, so enjoy what you get and drink in the snow while it’s falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: wait is the euro now trying to say south central PA gets almost nothing from this coastal? No, the 18z Euro delivered a great amount of precip & snow for the coastal tomorrow into Tuesday am for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 at what point does a 10 to 1 ratio go higher? im down to 23 atm. im thinking atm I may be up to a 12 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Back to the discussion at hand, namely the ongoing storm... I still think the focus of the biggest totals will be that Lehigh Valley area of far eastern PA in northern half of NJ/NYC. And really the NAM still reflected that.. but the 0z run really hooked up with the major deform band reaching far back deep into C-PA. I'm a bit suspect of such a widespread area of a foot plus so far back like the 12k NAM has, but I do think the deform shield is probably being undermodelled on near term guidance like the HRRR. But remember.. HRRR goes out to 18 hours except for the 0,6,12,18z runs and we're still not really at the time when this deform from the deepening coastal gets flung back into PA at the end of the regular HRRR runs. And I'm more looking at other short term guidance for anything out past that anyways. The major features (850/700 lows) are well placed to go along with a very robust 850mb jet pointed into eastern PA so there's likely going to be a stripe of more significant totals.. just not sure on how widespread. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No, the 18z Euro delivered a great amount of precip & snow for the coastal tomorrow into Tuesday am for most of us Oh ok cause that one frame on the gif looked like it was coming up last showing like 1.3 guessing it was first and I was wrong thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ruin said: Yeah Im in that room atm cause its more active I have no idea why people are getting so testy If you wanted me to guess... it’s day drinking imagine day two and three of this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, basehore said: If you wanted me to guess... it’s day drinking imagine day two and three of this event! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, basehore said: If you wanted me to guess... it’s day drinking imagine day two and three of this event! I think you are spot on with this. One in particular whose posts get less and less coherent as the day goes on. A bit worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Measured an additional 2.7" for a total of 6.2" so far 22F Light Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Measured an additional 2.7" for a total of 6.2" so far 22F Light Snow We are real close. I am calling 6 here. If that crazy nam output came to fruition then we will break a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Snowing nicely here, haven’t measure but looks 3 to 4 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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