Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Blizzard of 93we all know MDT always reports low lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Tuesday. tell me last time you saw a 50 hour storm warning in CTP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed 14.2” 1.18 qpf 20.2" 1.68 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'd think were too far east to achieve anything more than 12-13:1 as its not that cold of a storm. per GFS heres warmest panel then as coastal gets cranking we see this during max precip. and ccb's. IMO thats great but not cold enough to really fluff it up. Still not a complaint in the world for me. With a good snow column that doesn't have a warm nose in it and below freezing surface temps, it's more important what the temperature is where the best lift is occurring. Taking the Euro, temps are about -7ºC to -10ºC at 700mb where the big lift and heavy snowband is late in the storm. So not quite in the DGZ but it's definitely sufficient for good ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: 20.2" 1.68 QPF Nice !!! This would bring a tear to my eye! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @Blizzard of 93we all know MDT always reports low lol Yes, typically over the years, however they did seem to match up well with nearby totals for the December storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: With a good snow column that doesn't have a warm nose in it and below freezing surface temps, it's more important what the temperature is where the best lift is occurring. Taking the Euro, temps are about -7ºC to -10ºC at 700mb where the big lift and heavy snowband is late in the storm. So not quite in the DGZ but it's definitely sufficient for good ratios. Thanks. You also just answered my question about Isotherms so no need to reply I was assuming -6 to -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Greensnow said: BGM- Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up the coast. Yup, that's been the last 24 hrs in a nutshell watching guidance evolve with this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 20.2" 1.68 QPF You can blame me if that doesnt verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed 14.2” 1.18 qpf 21” 1.7 qpf lets go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19.3" 1.5" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: With a good snow column that doesn't have a warm nose in it and below freezing surface temps, it's more important what the temperature is where the best lift is occurring. Taking the Euro, temps are about -7ºC to -10ºC at 700mb where the big lift and heavy snowband is late in the storm. So not quite in the DGZ but it's definitely sufficient for good ratios. i was looking at both 850 and 700's to see how good the column looked, and shouldve posted the 700's as they only looked to get real good once best qpf has left the area (gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed 14.2” 1.18 qpf Here we go... I will take a chance on this! 19.2” 1.6 qpf This amount would get MDT exactly to their climo snow average of 30.9 for the season! We would still have the rest of February & March to pad stats for the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Whtm going with areawide 4-8". Didn't catch any other local channels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. Lifted from the MA forum. Wasn't the GEM the one with those scary gray colors usually not seen outside of Buffalo during an epic lake effect event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Whtm going with areawide 4-8". Didn't catch any other local channels I happened to just listen to WGAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 22.2” on 1.77” precip. Good luck all!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15.4" QPF 1.26" Sorry about that Nut! Darn memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I happened to just listen to WGAL following nws. I like this better as a starting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 15.4" on 1.2" precip" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 25.7" of snow from 1.93" of liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: 25.7" of snow from 1.93" of liquid. we're guessing for MDT, Not my house 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: we're guessing for MDT, Not my house Haha. Hey I subtracted 15" of snow from the 40" the Canadian gave this afternoon, so my guess seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11.9” 1.04” qpf I have to keep my expectations “low.” I’m a reformed journalist, it’s how we operate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Haha. Hey I subtracted 15" of snow from the 40" the Canadian gave this afternoon, so my guess seems reasonable. you've been the jackpot run after run. Hoping that band sneaks down to me. Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 For those that know Roger Smith, he's calling for 30-35" for my area. I love Roger Smith! In all of my years on these boards, I don't think Roger Smith has been right once. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: For those that know Roger Smith, he's calling for 30-35" for my area. I love Roger Smith! In all of my years on these boards, I don't think Roger Smith has been right once. i like his style. run with the model that shows the most snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: i like his style. run with the model that shows the most snow He even tried to discount the RGEM. Then, he turned around and forecasted RGEM amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 For those that know Roger Smith, he's calling for 30-35" for my area. I love Roger Smith! In all of my years on these boards, I don't think Roger Smith has been right once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For those that know Roger Smith, he's calling for 30-35" for my area. I love Roger Smith! In all of my years on these boards, I don't think Roger Smith has been right oncehee Years ago he had paid clients. Not sure about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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