anotherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I think we need to adjust expectations. I have. Unless you are in eastern PA. It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: I think we need to adjust expectations. I have. Unless you are in eastern PA. It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff. I hope I'm wrong. Agreed, I’ll be happy 4 to 7 or so. Thinking best dynamics end up Lehigh valley north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: I think we need to adjust expectations. I have. Unless you are in eastern PA. It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff. I hope I'm wrong. Should @Cashtown_Coop open the MDT contest back up for adjustments? :-). Actually I would not adjust down much. I still think MDT has a shot at over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: I think we need to adjust expectations. I have. Unless you are in eastern PA. It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff. I hope I'm wrong. Just depends on what your expectations are, mine are anything above 30" right now so I may be disappointed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: Methinks your flight gets cancelled. Well, you called that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: I think we need to adjust expectations. I have. Unless you are in eastern PA. It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff. I hope I'm wrong. Mine has always been 12”. But I was never modeled to get the big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Don’t they have a Pittsburgh thread on here? Asking for a friend.... When I made this storm thread I said western PA folks were welcome to post obs and discussion over here. With that said let's keep the posts useful and on topic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: Well, you called that one... Who knew there was an Air Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Who knew there was an Air Wisconsin? It's basically a cheese head with wings and wheels. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 KPITT loves complaining about every storm. We got like 11 last storm and he was complaining the whole time leading up to it. Hope you guys get crushed and DC gets shafted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Primary seems to be over Charleston right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: Well, you called that one... I don’t know much but I’m an avid airplane geek (and have 20 hours flying so far) so saw this coming. I’m sorry - hope it doesn’t throw any curveball with the new employer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, canderson said: I don’t know much but I’m an avid airplane geek (and have 20 hours flying so far) so saw this coming. I’m sorry - hope it doesn’t throw any curveball with the new employer. Oh so you're a pilot also. You plan on being a pilot like Chuck Yaeger or a pilot like Cory Lisle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best snows of the day here. perty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: KPITT loves complaining about every storm. We got like 11 last storm and he was complaining the whole time leading up to it. Hope you guys get crushed and DC gets shafted. We agree on your last line....and you’re right the last storm was awful take after awful take for me. That said after that foot storm the rest of the season is gravy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yonk1216 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hi everyone.... long time lurker...1st time poster. A question for the more knowledgeable members of the board.... I know some models have a habit of leaving the L over the convection but... does the jumpiness of the actual progged low center effect precip distribution? I'd assume no but even the last CMC run shows a huge jump northwest.... is not the capture imo but wondering if that changes the trajectory or intensity the precip field on the model...... thanks everyone!.... here's hoping for a monster storm for everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Saw flurries start as early as about 5am this morning snow but really didn't get going til about 9am this morning. Currently light snow and 1.3" on the ground. I'm not really seeing many surprises in the early going. Guidance has had this starting slow for days and that's what its doing. Near term stuff has had the initial surge of snowfall followed by a bit of light period while the precip shield rebuilds from Ohio and pushes into PA later this afternoon, which judging by radar trends seems on target. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Horst hasn't posted a new map, but sort of dropped places like my area and nutsville from 12-18" down to 6-12" Says he feels that the heavy totals are aimed for the Lehigh Valley. Did say areas near the turnpike could see a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Oh so you're a pilot also. You plan on being a pilot like Chuck Yaeger or a pilot like Cory Lisle? Hahahaha neither. I’m not getting a plane but love flying. My vision is too poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Saw flurries start as early as about 5am this morning snow but really didn't get going til about 9am this morning. Currently light snow and 1.3" on the ground. I'm not really seeing many surprises in the early going. Guidance has had this starting slow for days and that's what its doing. Near term stuff has had the initial surge of snowfall followed by a bit of light period while the precip shield rebuilds from Ohio and pushes into PA later this afternoon, which judging by radar trends seems on target. Appreciate this reassurance. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I have very light flurries, barely discernable, and .4" so far. 27 degrees. Snow is beginning to melt on my road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Saw flurries start as early as about 5am this morning snow but really didn't get going til about 9am this morning. Currently light snow and 1.3" on the ground. I'm not really seeing many surprises in the early going. Guidance has had this starting slow for days and that's what its doing. Near term stuff has had the initial surge of snowfall followed by a bit of light period while the precip shield rebuilds from Ohio and pushes into PA later this afternoon, which judging by radar trends seems on target. Good luck with this one MAG, hope you get crushed. Appreciate you always including us western pa folk in your analysis and now the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I don’t know much but I’m an avid airplane geek (and have 20 hours flying so far) so saw this coming. I’m sorry - hope it doesn’t throw any curveball with the new employer. Thanks. I don't know if it will or not, but thinking myself that a cancellation would happen, and that I'd either be stuck in AVP for day or so, or forcing my wife and brother in law to come back up and get me in bad road conditions, I cancelled with a reschedule option. We'll see how the employer handles it. Snowing pretty good here again with nice sized flakes and a good dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 12z Canadian low position & track is very good. The low stalls off of the DelMarVa and southern NJ coast. Notice the second precip max over State College back towards Latrobe due to the banding that sets up this run. This back could set up further east or west or maybe just fill in. The bottom line is that we are all still very much in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It's a tad patchy but the HRRR drops .25 to .50" of qpf over the southern third of PA (a few .75 blues out west) over the next 8 hours. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Here are a few frames from the 12z Canadian. We have a long way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Canadian low position & track is very good. The low stalls off of the DelMarVa and southern NJ coast. Notice the second precip max over State College back towards Latrobe due to the banding that sets up this run. This back could set up further east or west or maybe just fill in. The bottom line is that we are all still very much in the game. Gotta move those 30-40" range back west Blizz! From Yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Bottom line - still not the time to make definitive statements either way. Lots of moving parts. Tomorrow will bring surprises...where and how will be a nowcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yard-stick Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hello all...its snowing hard now up here in NEPA @ 2000ft elevation on the Luzerne/Schuylkill county border. Roads got snow covered in minutes. This is looking like the real deal this time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Bottom line - still not the time to make definitive statements either way. Lots of moving parts. Tomorrow will bring surprises...where and how will be a nowcast. Should be fun!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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