RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight. Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area. Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. Lol, good luck over there too. Looks like Pittsburgh's going to be getting started within the next couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 54 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism. And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers. @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me. After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other. Thank you. I respect you as one of the finest gentlemen on here. I went into the mid-Atlantic thread the other night and told them what a great thread we have with a bunch of amazing people. All I ask for is that we respect each other. Plain and simple. I started a big thing when all I was trying to do was keep things above the line. I speak up to defend people when I feel they aren't being treated well and I will not stop doing so. I guess that's why my career is in HR. Carry on. I'm finished with this and ready to move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Euro looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like euro and gfs actually tracked the low little closer to the coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Another areawide Euro thrashing at 0z. I-81 corridor from Harrisburg to Scranton roughly being the bullseye, although most of eastern PA is 20"+ on Kuchera and Euro hasn't yet relinquished the snow completely all the way through hr 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Another areawide Euro thrashing at 0z. I-81 corridor from Harrisburg to Scranton roughly being the bullseye, although most of eastern PA is 20"+ on Kuchera and Euro hasn't yet relinquished the snow completely all the way through hr 69. I'll certainly take it although the dry slot makes it here along with some rain. Just 50 miles or so SE can make it even more awesome though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Lol, good luck over there too. Looks like Pittsburgh's going to be getting started within the next couple hours. Or western laurels... well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 hours ago, paweather5 said: Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Good morning!!! it looks like CTP escalated the Winter Storm Warning by bumping snow totals up a few inches. Hopefully this continues to bump up as the storm gets underway, Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-052-056-057-063>065-312200- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1000Z-210202T1000Z/ Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Sunbury, Shamokin, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts north and east of Harrisburg. A light glaze of ice is also likely from Harrisburg southward. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region this morning and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on Monday and potentially mix with ice from Harrisburg southward. Expect the snow to taper off by late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Here is the CTP Warning for the rest of the counties including Lebanon & Lancaster. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 PAZ042-046-051-053-058-059-066-312200- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1500Z-210202T1000Z/ Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Lancaster- Including the cities of Laporte, Williamsport, Danville, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Lancaster 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts north of Harrisburg. A light glaze of ice is likely south of Harrisburg. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region late this morning and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on Monday and potentially mix with ice south of Harrisburg. Expect the snow to taper by late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 6z GFS was another CTP crusher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Anything over 20 inches here in Tamaqua is uncharted territory...for me, anyway. The area might have had more in 1993, since, from what I'm told, had little to no mixing. I'm hoping my wife and friends share pics so I can see from afar how things turn out locally. Beyond my backyard, I'll be living this one out via all of your keyboards and camera lenses. Enjoy all! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So Monday evening looks like prime time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So the crazy Canadians are still at it. 50 inches in Tamaqua on the latest run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Good luck today/tomorrow everyone! Remember kids... No more NE adjustments. I won't feel safe until the 12Z suite and even then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ruin said: any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am I'm hanging steady at 26/14. Did have some virga pass over earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I just dont understand with virga overhead most of the night since midnight my dewpoint lowers instead of going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am Here in Western PA we've gotten like a coating to quarter/half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: Here in Western PA we've gotten like a coating to quarter/half inch. how wet or dry is it? does it look powdery ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 If this where to verify JNS and I could be top dogs. Its looking like a special day for all good luck and stay safe. nothing but love from FHS for this EPIC event.Sitting here in the Hershey/Hummelstown area having flashbacks to the Kuchera models before the December bust when 20” was reduced to 9” by pingers and dry slotting.We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matrix961 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow starting here in Mechanicsburg. Very light so far. Temp is currently at 27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hey everyone! Here's a rough idea for my forecast for many in the sub-forum. Yes, it's Mid Atlantic centric, but it still encapsulates a lot of the sub that will be most impacted. The highest area could be low balling if the deform rots overhead. Will be a crazy day tomorrow. I might do a quick and dirty map update for tomorrow as well with more forum coverage. Enjoy the snow later today! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 KMDT Snowfall Entries Canderson 11.9" 1.04 Cashtown_coop 14.2" 1.18 Mag5035 15.4" 1.20 Pawatch 15.4" 1.26 Pasnownut 15.5" 1.28 Paweather 16.2" 1.40 Sauss06 16.5" 1.30 Millvillewx 16.7" 1.36 Gosnow 17.0" 1.30 Bubbler86 17.8" 1.40 Allweather 17.9" 1.50 Jns2183 18.9" 1.44 Blizzardof93 19.2" 1.60 2001kx 19.3" 1.50 Medmax 19.3" 1.60 Itstraingtime 20.2" 1.68 GrandmasterB 21.0" 1.70 Whiteout 22.2" 1.68 Carlisepawx 25.7" 1.93 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 wasnt the storm that crush central and south central PA a few years back a miller b? weather channel called it juno I think it was in 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: KMDT Snowfall Entries Canderson 11.9" 1.04 Cashtown_coop 14.2" 1.18 Mag5035 15.4" 1.20 Pawatch 15.4" 1.26 Pasnownut 15.5" 1.28 Paweather 16.2" 1.40 Sauss06 16.5" 1.30 Gosnow 17.0" 1.30 Bubbler86 17.8" 1.40 Allweather 17.9" 1.50 Jns2183 18.9" 1.44 Blizzardof93 19.2" 1.60 2001kx 19.3" 1.50 Itstraingtime 20.2" 1.68 GrandmasterB 21.0" 1.70 Whiteout 22.2" 1.68 Carlisepawx 25.7" 1.93 I'm hoping Stephen wins. he's all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Good luck central/Eastern pa peeps! Waking up in Pittsburgh with not much on the ground, we’ll see what happens the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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