MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Thanks Mag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, 2001kx said: So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ? For my clients I am going with 15-1 ratios so forecasting 12-18" still even for the Western LSV back into Fulton country where models are underplaying a bit but 15-1 ratios with the qpf fields I am seeing support it. Out your way definitely Kuch I would think. I cannot even imagine forecasting 30" for the Eastern LSV. Doubt any reputable place does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 And please ban me as you see fit. I am OK with that, just excited as a 52 year man. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Thanks Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hi everyone! I’ve been a member on here for a while now, just haven’t posted much. Well I figured with the storm, I’ll start posting again lol! I’m getting pumped for this here in York! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed We’ll let yinz know how this front end is looking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, 2001kx said: So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ? The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Hi everyone! I’ve been a member on here for a while now, just haven’t posted much. Well I figured with the storm, I’ll start posting again lol! I’m getting pumped for this here in York! Please do post! Welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 31.2 with temps falling quickly here under a mostly clear sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. I'd think were too far east to achieve anything more than 12-13:1 as its not that cold of a storm. per GFS heres warmest panel then as coastal gets cranking we see this during max precip. and ccb's. IMO thats great but not cold enough to really fluff it up. Still not a complaint in the world for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 EPAWA update: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Twice this season Mag has opened a separate discussion for a substantial storm. what a difference a year makes Good Luck everyone! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good luck to everyone. 2021 January/February is definitely different than 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, pawatch said: Twice this season Mag has opened a separate discussion for a substantial storm. what a difference a year makes Good Luck everyone! when he's on board....you know the snow train is rollin.... Let's enjoy this gang.....looking like this is "one for us". 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z GEFS held steady. Over an inch of precip for many of us. Snow amounts with ratios would exceed 1 foot if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Twice this season Mag has opened a separate discussion for a substantial storm. what a difference a year makes Good Luck everyone! I can't take credit for the December storm haha, @pasnownut made that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think it is time for this to start. Gosh we have the 0z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS held steady. Over an inch of precip for many of us. Snow amounts with ratios would exceed 1 foot if this verified. how does that compare vs 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For my clients I am going with 15-1 ratios so forecasting 12-18" still even for the Western LSV back into Fulton country where models are underplaying a bit but 15-1 ratios with the qpf fields I am seeing support it. Out your way definitely Kuch I would think. I cannot even imagine forecasting 30" for the Eastern LSV. Doubt any reputable place does that. 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. Thanks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 FB Live at 7:30 NWS. at the very least they are letting public know what they think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed 14.2” 1.18 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: I can't take credit for the December storm haha, @pasnownut made that one. LOL. I'm a team player and totally happy w/ you gettin the creds. When youre looking at ratios, you look mostly at -6 to -10 istotherms for best snow growth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. 14.2” 1.18 qpf 17.8", 1.4 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week. Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that. Respond to this post with your guess. Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. 14.2” 1.18 qpf 15.5" 1.28 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 BGM- Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I edited earlier post. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16.2" 1.40 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Greensnow said: BGM- Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up the coast. Readin that to me is akin to my wife readin 50 shades of gray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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