Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Radar out west looks kinda rough. Are the mountains tearing the primary apart? We've had issues with dry air here in western PA. Looks like maybe a band will be coming through the area soon. So far though we haven't gotten much from the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Radar out west looks kinda rough. Are the mountains tearing the primary apart? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 44 minutes ago, paweather said: Stole this LOL. I guess we are LSW: I want you gentlemen to know that we laugh about this because it’s true, not because it’s odd. The line in the liquor store part of Madison’s Woodman’s, which is like your Wegman’s, was a world class affair on Saturday AM! There was a woman with sixty of those little single-shot bottles of liquor in her cart and another gentleman with seven fifths of Tito’s. All for a five-inch storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Mogget said: I want you gentlemen to know that we laugh about this because it’s true, not because it’s odd. The line in the liquor store part of Madison’s Woodman’s, which is like your Wegman’s, was a world class affair on Saturday AM! There was a woman with sixty of those little single-shot bottles of liquor in her cart and another gentleman with seven fifths of Tito’s. All for a five-inch storm... Were you supposed to be flying @Voyager this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Radar out west looks kinda rough. Are the mountains tearing the primary apart? It’s about the coastal. We are getting the front end thump now. Primary will weakening and a transfer will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just crossed 1”. Lie I said, anything over 6” and this is a win. Miller Bs are a B, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Were you supposed to be flying @Voyager this afternoon? Yeah, I’m the co-pilot for Cheesehead Airlines, LOL... Actually, I lived in MD while getting my PhD and loved this weather board — it was the olden days back then. Can’t remember what it was called but I was lurking in the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum last night and nothing has changed. I have a very good friend in Carlisle so I visit here fairly often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 30 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: the band im in is sweet nice fat dentrites It can snow like this for the next 40 sumthin hours and I’d not have a care in the world as to how much is measured. Im happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Don't overthink it....Tomorrow after the transfer some of you are going to be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: It can snow like this for the next 40 sumthin hours and I’d not have a care in the world as to how much is measured. Im happy I agree. Rates are picking up now in Marysville. I have a little over 1 inch of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nice burst of snow after what has been a pretty quiet afternoon (only light snow of the "for show" variety). Big flakes. Should be getting into some steadier stuff in the next hour or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Finally! Moderate to almost heavy snow now falling here. At 3:00pm I recorded an additional 0.2" of snow for a storm total of 1.0" It is currently snowing at the rate of 0.5-0.75"/hr. Temp now 27.1, dp 25. Looking great outside! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Don't overthink it....Tomorrow after the transfer some of you are going to be very happy. Exactly, we are in the second inning of this ballgame! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly, we are in the second inning of this ballgame! Yep I would say we might be in the 1st Radar looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story . Hrrr starting to pick up on this. It’s looking a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hrrr starting to pick up on this. It’s looking a lot better Just because I have family out near Pittsburgh I will always remember that one storm in feb 2010 that due to a trailing boundary that setup e to w the 4 to 8” turned into 16” with news stations caught still calling for it when 12” was already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just got bumped up to a WSW from WWA in Tioga county. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story . This might be the best post of the day! 100% great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Mod to Heavy Snow falling now. Come on Primary do your work first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best snow of the day by far. It’s beautiful out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This might be the best post of the day! 100% great point.You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting. Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting. Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though. . X2 man. Love long duration....don’t like quickies..... but I’ll take em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting. Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though. . X2 man. Love long duration....don’t like quickies..... but I’ll take em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best rates of the storm. Big fluffy parachutes..!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s already filling in to our Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CTP keeps lowering totals. Some places may lose warnings at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Latest CTP AFD (is it too late to enter the MDT snowfall contest?): A long duration winter storm will continue to impact central PA through Monday night. We will transition from phase 1 of the storm to phase 2 as the primary sfc low weakens over the OH Valley tonight and energy transfers to a strengthening coastal low offshore the Delmarva/NJ. Hires models particularly the HREF/HRRR are showing dry slot penetrating into the lower Susquehanna Valley after midnight, and in response we expect snow to change to or mix with sleet and freezing rain into early Monday morning. The gradient between deepening coastal low and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an anomalous easterly flow focused into eastern PA. Expect wintry mix to transition back to snow by midday Monday with increasing snow rates through Monday afternoon. 12Z HREF was not that bullish for >1"/hr rates showing highest probs running along the CWA border btwn BGM and CTP. Models continue to show fgen band setting up in the deformation zone and pivoting over east-central into northeast PA Monday evening and into Monday night. The key takeaway for the dayshift cycle was an overall reduction in storm total snowfall supported by the HREF mean/extended range 12/18Z HRRR and backed by a WPC/NBM blend, with a shift in max snowfall amounts (10-15+" range) toward the Poconos/NEPA. Local CWA max is in Sullivan County pushing 1.5 feet/18 inches. There could be some changes in the Monday night period as model spread increases with the orientation and intensity of pivoting fgen/deformation band. We were keen to place the highest POPs and heaviest snowfall over the NE zones. As the coastal low deepens, gusty northerly winds are expected over the far eastern parts of the area with max gusts in the 30-35 mph range early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Light to moderate snow here in Hershey/Hummelstown. About 2” on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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