North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: This thread has gone to hell, but the GFS para puts the brakes on the Baltimore snow party. It still wants to bring some accumulating snow to most of central MD and hits the MD/PA border nicely, but it's not doing what the ops GFS is. Looking closely, the GFS precip field is wacky with a big max on the Jersey Shore and reduced totals for the NYC metro area- GFS para looks more reasonable and consistent. Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Our Scottie was camera shy earlier but enjoyed licking up the snow as it fell. Nice day today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So now we look to see what moves from south toward us. 3.5” most consistent Even plowed road got recovered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: CMC just dropped 30 on Wilmington. Seems legit. You've gotta wonder if this is feedback or what. The Euro just for the sake of seeing it's take is actually something I'll have to wait for now. That's a couple runs of models in a row that showed a big move towards big totals close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 at what point does a 10 to 1 ratio go higher? im down to 23 atm. im thinking atm I may be up to a 12 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment... I think BWI recorded 8 in 1978 but there was much better results just north of there. Baltimore metro was 12 plus and northern and northeastern suburbs got 14-18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ruin said: at what point does a 10 to 1 ratio go higher? im down to 23 atm. im thinking atm I may be up to a 12 to 1 Surface doesn’t really matter. More about upper air temperatures especially in the dendrite growth layer of the atmosphere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Every model I've looked at gets us 2-4? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment... And tbh temps are cold enough to support this sticking around at least on grassy surfaces. We’re not gonna see any torch that the gfs was showing earlier. These tailing, sweeping bands are exactly what I’ve been thinking about in terms of surprises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 CMC also dumps huge totals on Boston. It would be crazy to see Wilmington @ 2 ft with Baltimore at 4". If the 2 ft happens, I'd think Baltimore area would do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Consensus of the 00Z suite so far is that a 1-3 or 2-4" accumulation happens during the day tomorrow from HGR to OKV. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. Jan 2000. My all time favorite storm because it was clear as day from the radar that it was headed our way. But they were still just hugging the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So now we look to see what moves from south toward us. 3.5” most consistent Even plowed road got recovered. Got about the same here in CP. I honestly did enjoy it. Was done too soon tho. Good luck to the folks up norther tho. We'd need like 2 more clicks south and Jesus himself to get the CCB down to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This last little band out here is nice. Coming down well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 If this had been an A that looked like all was go for 6”+, them bitter disappointment Bs are too hard, can’t get it right, even in present moment but I don’t blame models on these. Just gotta watch it happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 59 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: This has been a painful lesson for most of us. Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half. For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2". Works 95% of the time. Works for clippers too. Oh, light frz drizzle and 29. Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid I would just post a sticky giving guidance on how to interpret Miller B's at some latitudes. It would save a lot of white noise, silly emotion over snow and over analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 28/27 AA County. Temp dropped another degree. Some light freezing drizzle/mist has glazed everything over the past couple of hours. Winds are picking up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think it was perfectly reasonable to expect a little more out of the WAA. The coastal was always a question because, well, Miller B...lol 3-5 or 4-6 was most prevalent idea so yes I think more was expected. I got 3.5 which is in range. Not as busted forcesdt at all, just somewhat low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Got about the same here in CP. I honestly did enjoy it. Was done too soon tho. Good luck to the folks up norther tho. We'd need like 2 more clicks south and Jesus himself to get the CCB down to us. College Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 at what point does a 10 to 1 ratio go higher? im down to 23 atm. im thinking atm I may be up to a 12 to 1Snow ratio is dependent on low to mid level boundary layer temps, specifically between 850-600mb where moisture transport occurs in a mid-latitude cyclone. The greater the lift within the aforementioned zone, the better chance for more well defined flakes. Temperatures between -12 to -18C are the prime range for ice crystallization, coupled with lift to generate larger, well defined ice structures called dendrites. They are light in water vapor content, but have large area bases that tend to stack (accumulate) more efficiently. There’s all kinds of different flake structures depending on temp profiles, lift, and depth of the moisture layer. Today we likely saw a lot of needles in light precip which are very light, small, and take a lot to accumulate over time. Out west, there was a bit more forcing across the higher terrain and along the isentropic ascent created by upscale troughing out west. So even if the snow was light to moderate in nature for hours on end, flake structure was likely fairly decent, allowing to max accumulation despite a lack of prolific rates. . 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: College Park? I believe tracker is referring to Cleveland Park neighborhood, DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: They are easy to pin down... they suck for this area 95% of the time but we choose to accept guidance that produces a pipe dream just like the one poker hand that works out of 100 that keeps us coming back for more. He sounds like me??????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: College Park? Cleveland Park, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Those gravity waves off ocean city are just beautiful on radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS says I see more from the coastal than the WAA. When they either screw or minimize DC the Bs the dump the huge amounts more on a northeat Md to Wilmington to Philly but forecasts drive it almost due north into PA. Want to see. How that turns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: Those gravity waves off ocean city are just beautiful on radar Looks like some just SE of DC right now as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That dry slot today was just brutal. Can see it on water vapor all day and it barely moved. It’s even more pronounced now. I’m assuming too much separation between systems and just not an ideal trough orientation. I don’t think a lot of forecasters saw this coming esp considering we had a pretty legit air mass in place fully supportive of snow. It is what it is and there’s still February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Looks like some just SE of DC right now as well: Maybe that can help us out tomorrow (doubtful). Still cool to see that feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Hey does anyone on here have any idea how much snow Dale City got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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