ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I couldn’t get the 6-10 inches generated by NWP for days if you hooked a fire hose up to Ocean City, sucked into the trowal and folded over the trop eight times and aimed it at my house. Remember the RGEM, euro, cmc, ukmet for the trash they put out next time. I won’t invest in another storm in this area until I see the whites of its eyes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: The latest NAM would seem to indicate that all we need is a 50-100 mile shift south to get a chunk of Maryland into heavy snow. Good luck, it’s all going north 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 RGEM was more tucked, but no shift with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! Haaa. I'm honestly surprised people are still looking at models though even still for the next few hours. 18 hours ago, King Euro said I'd have 9" from this event. I'm sitting somewhere around 2 right now and highly doubting I pick up another 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 RGEM made a little shift PHI gets dumped on now more then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Not gonna boast but I want it noted that I stuck with my gut that there would be surprises tonight. Not exactly the contrarian call of the century but I’m telling you these Miller Bs are almost impossible to pin down. They are easy to pin down... they suck for this area 95% of the time but we choose to accept guidance that produces a pipe dream just like the one poker hand that works out of 100 that keeps us coming back for more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 In fairness, NONE of the models have verified, so perhaps the best strategy is to simply trust the climo and play the percentages based on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I couldn’t get the 6-10 inches generated by NWP for days if you hooked a fire hose up to Ocean City, sucked into the trowal and folded over the trop eight times and aimed it at my house. Remember the RGEM, euro, cmc, ukmet for the trash they put out next time. I won’t invest in another storm in this area until I see the whites of its eyes! some people here will not like this one bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, feloniousq said: some people here will not like this one bit Believe it because it’s correct. Storm was a bust here 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: In fairness, NONE of the models have verified, so perhaps the best strategy is to simply trust the climo and play the percentages based on that. Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: model runs aren’t forecasts. you know this. They are guidance and we bought into it for days. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Sleet in Derwood. Kids' daycare closed tomorrow. Looking forward to more sledding and some SnowTV tomorrow. Maybe even luck into an inch or two? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. I don't want to get fooled again. I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxtrix said: model runs aren’t forecasts. you know this. the euro was garbage for this storm. garbage. it will be very painful for a lot of worshippers on this forum to acknowledge accordingly. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. I don't want to get fooled again. I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! How much snow did you get bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. I don't want to get fooled again. I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! How much snow did you get bro? Just under 3 inches. I mean, I liked it, love snow always, but I love it most when it is falling heavy and visibility is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: They are guidance and we bought into it for days. Would love to know which model ended up best and which was worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: They are guidance and we bought into it for days. You’re the met so this comes with a great deal of respect but that was four days ago and showed that kind of historic snow for 2 runs. And I think one of them was 18z. The GFS wasn’t close the other way for run after run for days. Euro at least corrected quickly, and has been very consistent since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This has been a painful lesson for most of us. Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half. For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2". Works 95% of the time. Works for clippers too. Oh, light frz drizzle and 29. Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Very fine light snow falling now. 5.5" so far. 25 degrees in Smithsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 globals were pretty bad; mesos were pretty good. according to gfs, we should be pouring rain right now and approaching 40 degrees. what a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: This has been a painful lesson for most of us. Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half. For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2". Works 95% of the time. Works for clippers too. Oh, light frz drizzle and 29. Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid Don't forget Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both? I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Back to very light with rate big flake. 3.5” most frequent measure. This has been fun, lot of people out today, cold but not bitter and not wet snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I posted over the past 2 days that it was all about the waa. We all know what a Miller B means for our area. And normally my area is the worst for them. Climo is almost always king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! You are dumping on a data simulation of snowfall amounts 156h in the future? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO ah ok ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatoctinRN Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Emmitsburg light snow closing on 6 inches. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 hmmm just took a look at current and future radar and the future radar isnt showing anything like the models are showing for tomorrow Myabe it hasnt been updated yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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