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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

I mean this is a substantial shift 

This screams heavy CCB setup

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The cooler 850’s would indicate dynamic cooling by heavy bands. With that frame and LP/fetch we should be ripping high ratio fluff over CMD. 
 

The NAM has performed well in this storm. Let’s see if any other short range models can join the party. 

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It's going to be so close to a major event that will surprise everyone in this area leading to mass hysteria. Just 50 more miles which is in line with the trend and we are even DC looking at 6 plus from this. Also I find it ironic that the NAM after everyone ripped into and brought us nothing is now one of our best model for snow and everyone all the sudden likes it... weird. 

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29 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

DHS and Baker, two places I roamed decades ago...

Well hello :)  I was a student at both schools and now teach at Baker. Perhaps we roamed those places at the same time. Anyway, luck with any possible snow tomorrow, or next weekend.

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Looking at the latest nams  tonight I see dc region getting another 2-3” from this tomorrow. 
 

700mb has improved and the easterlies tomorrow are now more on par with how we receive our ccb snows from a pivoting lp. There’s also good water vapor transport and ample moisture to our west and nw, suggesting when the ccb consolidates we could be on the tail end of banding that sits for awhile 

 

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NC radar does show precipitation creeping northward. Models have the low going all over the place, in many cases east and then west again, north and south again. I looked at the SPC mesoanalysis page and they have a 1002 L off Ocean City by tomorrow morning (if I read that map right, which maybe I didn't). Feel bad for the mets on trying to forecast this. Models do seem to agree on one thing though - lots of snow in Pennsylvania. 

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