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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This is the SOLE thing I’ve been watching all day long. Pressure falls off the coast, 500mb, etc. Things are SO close to lining up for a more tucked solution. I think Baltimore and central / northern MD are still very much in the ball game. Next 6-12 hours will be critical. Better chance than not that things end up happening too late, but damn it’ll be close. 

I wouldn’t say better chance than not. We saw the NAM & ICON have a positive move on the backside at 18z for the northern tier folks. The GFS also brought good Banding to our doorstep and moved big totals much closer. 

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Watch it’s movement next.

ene very bad, nne OK. N-nne very good 

The track is fine but the mid and upper level lows to our west take too long to phase. So we are stuck under sw flow (dryslot) as the coastal passes through out sweet spot late tonight and early tomorrow. Then they phase in which opens the moisture feed to the west but not until the low is off NJ too late for us. 

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Got a new snowblower a couple weeks ago and was excited to fire it up. I took the kids sledding and when we returned my driveway was cleared. My neighbor, who is a great guy, used his blower to clear it. I was kinda bummed but figured I’d hit my elderly neighbors driveway after having something to eat. When I went back out to do it, another neighbor had done his driveway. So my new snowblower sits. Maybe tomorrow there will be enough snow to use it.

28/27 and 4.50” in Round Hill. Enjoy the snow everybody!

 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I wouldn’t say better chance than not. We saw the NAM & ICON have a positive move on the backside at 18z for the northern tier folks. The GFS also brought good Banding to our doorstep and moved big totals much closer. 

We’ll see what 0z has to say.... if it inches closer again, I’ll keep watching intently. But as PSU said above, the mid and upper level lows aren’t phasing in time, which starves our area of a good moisture fetch when the SLP appears to be in a prime location for us. 
 

it’s a shame. Cold air in place.... nor’easter forming at a near perfect spot.... the upper air dynamics just didn’t work out. Miller b’s are always so damn complicated for our area. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

We’ll see what 0z has to say.... if it inches closer again, I’ll keep watching intently. But as PSU said above, the mid and upper level lows aren’t phasing in time, which starves our area of a good moisture fetch when the SLP appears to be in a prime location for us. 
 

it’s a shame. Cold air in place.... nor’easter forming at a near perfect spot.... the upper air dynamics just didn’t work out. Miller b’s are always so damn complicated for our area. 

Agreed, but I think I’m looking for is to see where the low starts to slow down and spin around. The models haven’t lost that idea, and seeing the colder air/those pressures entrenched and the upper level meso maps could lead us to a stall or capture even 50 miles further south allowing for the phase to have a bigger play. 

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2 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

Yea I think “King Euro” is downgraded to a Baron of some place out in the sticks.  This was a big ol’ bust.

Considering that model run initiated 6 days from the event and was only off by 150 miles, I would consider that pretty damn good. If you think it sucks, just ignore the EURO from here on out and you’ll be good. And hit up Howard, you guys will be good buds. 

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Just now, Round Hill WX said:

Considering that model run initiated 6 days from the event and was only off by 150 miles, I would consider that pretty damn good. If you think it sucks, just ignore the EURO from here on out and you’ll be good. And hit up Howard, you guys will be good buds. 

How about the model run last night that had both you and me with 9.5”, 6” coming from the WAA? 
 

Any time a WSW fails to verify, it’s a bust, period

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