Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,703
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
 Share

Recommended Posts

still snowing here. . . albeit gently. . .I don't hate that.  And it looks like it will continue for a while.   So, here's hoping that the low stays tucked in and goes NNE and instead of ENE. . .  Thanks for everyone here for giving me something that makes me look like I know what I am talking about to my family and friends. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

What's your thoughts on the CCB tomorrow? Seems we are a bit to far west. Frederick east looks to have a shot. We should still see some lighter snow/ snow showers throughout the day.

Man...that is a tough one but agree with Fred east being in a better spot.  I still feel like there will be some surprises with the banding.  No doubt any banding will be eastern PA's leftovers but a solid period of light to mod snow I think is 50/50 even out this far west.  Wouldn't surprise me if we have true CCB over the forecasted spots and then a light/mod band further west with subsidence in between.  Some modeling has shown this idea....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just measured and yup, I'm at 2" sharp. DCA is actually beating me in Germantown hahaha.

 

Today was fun though. The snow is super fine, you can blow on it and it will blow away. It's pretty neat. The crystals themselves are like little fine needlepoints. it's pretty wild. Lots of sledding with the 5 year old. Snowman making was an absolute no go.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not.  I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them.

Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen. 

The suppression in New England moves out just in time for the wave to amplify along the coast. Problem is it de amplified the wave west of us first then because the ridge is east of the Rockies it reamplifies a bit too late. The slp track is fine. Transfer to NC then up. But we’re sitting under the dry slot ahead of the mid and upper level lows as the secondary passes through our sweet spot so it’s ruined. The mid and upper lows take too long to get their act together and phase in too late. Not sure suppression would have helped that. We’ve had some really awesome miller b hybrids with a primary into Ohio so long as the secondary develops south of us. But those cases (feb 10 2010 was one) the trough was amplifying not weakening on approach. The stall then wait to phase of the upper lows kills us because we sit under the dry SW flow at the mid levels as the coastal passes us. The runs that crushed us the trough didn’t open up and weaken as much it held and amplified to the coast without the weaken/open up/stall nonsense. Imo that was when it went wrong. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Parkville- Breezy, light snow. Got close to 3 inches today. The pixie dust snow was a bit disappointing today cutting down on accumulations, but I expected 2-5 today so wound up in that range. 

If I'm not misunderstood, we should still get light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon, maybe a few more inches?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Ruin said:

sometimes when echos just vanish or just come out of no where I wonder if the radar wasnt just acting up sometimes and not picking it up or late in showing it drying up

With snow, it usually means upper level energy is moving in and pockets of lift/dynamics are doing what they do. Upper level energy often pummels new weenie's brains because a blank radar = nothing happening at all for many hours. But there's plenty of available moisture in the column for precip. Just no mechanism to wring it out. Then energy moves overhead way up at 15k' or more snow starts seemingly out of nowhere. Like a miracle really. But if you understand 500mb vort and height panels it's not a miracle at all. It's expected. Not saying you should know this in any way shape or form because vast majority here dont. Tonight wont have a lot of that magic.  Just remember this post during our next legit upper level system and make fun of weenies on the verge of suicide. :tomato:

If you want a visual, click through the 500mb vort panels on the nam and check out the closed circle over OH as it approaches and starts sending orange and yellow swirly things over our heads. The redder and oranger and swirlier, the more energy to work with. It's not nearly that simple to forecast but its a good way to understand what your seeing on radar. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

With snow, it usually means upper level energy is moving in and pockets of lift/dynamics are doing what they do. Upper level energy often pummels new weenie's brains because a blank radar = nothing happening at all for many hours. But there's plenty of available moisture in the column for precip. Just no mechanism to wring it out. Then energy moves overhead way up at 15k' or more snow starts seemingly out of nowhere. Like a miracle really. But if you understand 500mb vort and height panels it's not a miracle at all. It's expected. Not saying you should know this in any way shape or form because vast majority here dont. Tonight wont have a lot of that magic.  Just remember this post during our next legit upper level system and make fun of weenies on the verge of suicide. :tomato:

If you want a visual, click through the 500mb vort panels on the nam and check out the closed circle over OH as it approaches and starts sending orange and yellow swirly things over our heads. The redder and oranger and swirlier, the more energy to work with. It's not nearly that simple to forecast but its a good way to understand what your seeing on radar. 

I know what your saying but ive seen it in the summer time too. its raining at my house and radar shows blank. then 20 mins later it shows something to the east of me. or when im star gazing for the meteor showers forecast is for clear skys and clouds roll in but on the satellite no clouds. this happens with both the summer ones and the winter ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...