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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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6pm Obs 

28.7F. Darkest greens Of day over me and solid 0.5”ph rate 

3” total 

that 3 degree drop  in one hour is more like what happens post sunset when it’s clear so unless it’s somehow warming up top while  getting colder at surface then I dont see much mixing or changing?

 

 

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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

6pm Obs 

28.7F. Darkest greens Of day over me and solid 0.5”ph rate 

3” total 

that 3 degree drop  in one hour is more like what happens post sunset when it’s clear so unless it’s somehow warming up top while  getting colder at surface then I dont see much mixing or changing?

Your temp drop is almost certainly from diurnal swing. The SPC meso analysis has the 925 and 850 temps well below freezing.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GRAF is the IBM model. It was apparently a candidate for the GFS update a couple years ago but lost out to FV3. 

Lost to the FV3?!?  That’s funny.

 

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

M3.5" Reisterstown (I'm the report on the PNS). Grass starting to really get covered now. Happy I left my Christmas lights up. Going to turn them on tonight. Just 11 months until Santa time!

Christmas lights are still up here too. Probably shouldn’t admit it, but so is our tree. Heck, I won’t apologize. I love Christmas, not to mention that it takes a lot of time putting up the train display so we like to enjoy it.

Steady light snow with better flakeage and 28.

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13 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

I agree - days like today are always disappointing, but it's still enough snow to play and sled and have a snowball fight.

The real busts are days like Mar 2013 that just kill your soul.

My biggest disappointment was Christmas Day 1985 - all the TV mets were POSITIVE that we were going to have a white Christmas! 2 to 4 inches was predicted even though Christmas Eve had been 58 and sunny. 

What actually happened was several hours of sleet and enough overnight snow that, if you squinted really hard, there was some white in the cracks on the sidewalk. A Post article the next day claimed the "cold air stalled over the Appalachians". Whatever primitive Neanderthal forecast models they were using back then were nowhere near up to the challenge but Gordon Barnes and Bob Ryan were just treating the outputs as gospel and basically wishcasting.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d wager this has been like 6-8:1 ratios outside of brief interludes. 

Still managed to completely cover grass but ratios and dynamics have sucked all day. There's no sugarcoating that. Well, metaphorically there's no sugarcoating but literally.... everything I own outside is sugarcoated. This storm is directly out of the climo playbook at this point. I'm glad af I didnt get a hook set until tues night and only believed I would get 6"+ thurs/fri so quick recovery for me.

This storm is a perfect example why tracking anything specific d4+ is a waste of time for me now. No matter how many looks you get in advance, twists and turns leave you scrambling around wondering wtf in the short range. Models did awesome picking this up and locking in I think over a week ago? Longer? I tuned in on tues and expected this then but then got sucked in with promising guidance at close leads. All of the daily deep analysis out in time for over a week+ get overruled and tossed aside literally as the event is happening. Talking specifics and details in the med range+ has totally lost it's luster for me last few years and today is just another friendly reminder to use my free time on more productive things. Lo

 

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:


I’ve said this once before, and I will say it again.

Please don’t EVER bring these images and disco of that storm in this forum. That was one of the worst Christmases ever watching that storm slip away. This gives me worse PTSD than that other storm that shall not be named.


.

My wife and teen kids talked about that storm today. It brought back unwanted memories of literally not enjoying christmas with my kids all that much as I couldn't get the stink off. It was too painful how it happened. We were all coming off a ridiculous heater from 09-10. All cocky and confident we would add another Dec crush job to a very short list. Then reality hit.

A good analogy would be hitting the blackjack table and doing no wrong for hours. You pick up your newly minted mountain of chips and walk away giddy. Sometime later you go back to the table feeling cocky and lucky AF.  Then in a few short hours you lose the ENTIRE STACK of chips and many more. Then get up feeling like your going to puke and hitting the atm to grab your last $20 on earth just so you can take a taxi ride of shame home instead of walking in 33 degree rain with no jacket. Yea, that feeling = boxing day

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still snowing here. . . albeit gently. . .I don't hate that.  And it looks like it will continue for a while.   So, here's hoping that the low stays tucked in and goes NNE and instead of ENE. . .  Thanks for everyone here for giving me something that makes me look like I know what I am talking about to my family and friends. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

What's your thoughts on the CCB tomorrow? Seems we are a bit to far west. Frederick east looks to have a shot. We should still see some lighter snow/ snow showers throughout the day.

Man...that is a tough one but agree with Fred east being in a better spot.  I still feel like there will be some surprises with the banding.  No doubt any banding will be eastern PA's leftovers but a solid period of light to mod snow I think is 50/50 even out this far west.  Wouldn't surprise me if we have true CCB over the forecasted spots and then a light/mod band further west with subsidence in between.  Some modeling has shown this idea....

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Just measured and yup, I'm at 2" sharp. DCA is actually beating me in Germantown hahaha.

 

Today was fun though. The snow is super fine, you can blow on it and it will blow away. It's pretty neat. The crystals themselves are like little fine needlepoints. it's pretty wild. Lots of sledding with the 5 year old. Snowman making was an absolute no go.

 

 

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