Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FWIW Man, WBAL always hugs their IBM models. This morning they had 6" - 12" north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Winding down under early evening skies in SE DC...hoping for more pity flakes. Had lost some accumulation even before the second wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Man, WBAL always hugs their IBM models. This morning they had 6" - 12" north of I-70. GRAF is the IBM model. It was apparently a candidate for the GFS update a couple years ago but lost out to FV3. Yeah, 6-12” was their storm total for MoCo, HoCo, Bmore and points north. Still seems that the low end of that range could verify if we believe the guidance for the next 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. sometimes when echos just vanish or just come out of no where I wonder if the radar wasnt just acting up sometimes and not picking it up or late in showing it drying up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. Takoma Park (very close To dc). Was just outside with the kids its a snow/sleet mix but mostly snow when it’s heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GRAF is the IBM model. It was apparently a candidate for the GFS update a couple years ago but lost out to FV3. Yeah, 6-12” was their storm total for MoCo, HoCo, Bmore and points north. Still seems that the low end of that range could verify if we believe the guidance for the next 36-48 hours. Going to be silly close. 29 could be the divide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Sounds like pong pong balls hitting my house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Back to light snow here 28/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 M3.5" Reisterstown (I'm the report on the PNS). Grass starting to really get covered now. Happy I left my Christmas lights up. Going to turn them on tonight. Just 11 months until Santa time! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Small flakes but pretty good intensity...looks nice in the street light and it's accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Was just outside doing another shoveling of the walk and driveway. Sounded like sleet and it was definitely snowing a little harder. Perhaps it was graupel. Not quite as pingy as I'd expect sleet to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said: Sounds like pong pong balls hitting my house Snow/sleet mix here now. The last hour or so was wasted with pixie dust. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6pm Obs 28.7F. Darkest greens Of day over me and solid 0.5”ph rate 3” total that 3 degree drop in one hour is more like what happens post sunset when it’s clear so unless it’s somehow warming up top while getting colder at surface then I dont see much mixing or changing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CC looks like it has some mixing in parts of DC and PG county and coming up the Potomac down near Charles Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: 6pm Obs 28.7F. Darkest greens Of day over me and solid 0.5”ph rate 3” total that 3 degree drop in one hour is more like what happens post sunset when it’s clear so unless it’s somehow warming up top while getting colder at surface then I dont see much mixing or changing? Your temp drop is almost certainly from diurnal swing. The SPC meso analysis has the 925 and 850 temps well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CAD holding strong to our NE as you can see from the isobars. Marked an L where it, at the moment, seems the coastal will officially pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. Light to mod snow with a pinger or two mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Updated totals: IAD, 2.7" BWI, 2.3" Still haven't seen anything from DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CC looks like it has some mixing in parts of DC and PG county and coming up the Potomac down near Charles Co. Sleet/freezing rain here. Getting crusty on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GRAF is the IBM model. It was apparently a candidate for the GFS update a couple years ago but lost out to FV3. Lost to the FV3?!? That’s funny. 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: M3.5" Reisterstown (I'm the report on the PNS). Grass starting to really get covered now. Happy I left my Christmas lights up. Going to turn them on tonight. Just 11 months until Santa time! Christmas lights are still up here too. Probably shouldn’t admit it, but so is our tree. Heck, I won’t apologize. I love Christmas, not to mention that it takes a lot of time putting up the train display so we like to enjoy it. Steady light snow with better flakeage and 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: IAD reports M2.7" storm total. No word on DCA or BWI yet. Saw 2.3” at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best snow of the day so far here in north-central(ish) Carroll county. 26 degrees Ne wind 2 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3.2” now. Rocking these 0.25”/hr rates. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Saw 2.3” at BWI Yea, just hit in the chat room after I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: I agree - days like today are always disappointing, but it's still enough snow to play and sled and have a snowball fight. The real busts are days like Mar 2013 that just kill your soul. My biggest disappointment was Christmas Day 1985 - all the TV mets were POSITIVE that we were going to have a white Christmas! 2 to 4 inches was predicted even though Christmas Eve had been 58 and sunny. What actually happened was several hours of sleet and enough overnight snow that, if you squinted really hard, there was some white in the cracks on the sidewalk. A Post article the next day claimed the "cold air stalled over the Appalachians". Whatever primitive Neanderthal forecast models they were using back then were nowhere near up to the challenge but Gordon Barnes and Bob Ryan were just treating the outputs as gospel and basically wishcasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Going to take a Jebwalk while the snow is still coming down well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pretty cold out 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2.1” at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d wager this has been like 6-8:1 ratios outside of brief interludes. Still managed to completely cover grass but ratios and dynamics have sucked all day. There's no sugarcoating that. Well, metaphorically there's no sugarcoating but literally.... everything I own outside is sugarcoated. This storm is directly out of the climo playbook at this point. I'm glad af I didnt get a hook set until tues night and only believed I would get 6"+ thurs/fri so quick recovery for me. This storm is a perfect example why tracking anything specific d4+ is a waste of time for me now. No matter how many looks you get in advance, twists and turns leave you scrambling around wondering wtf in the short range. Models did awesome picking this up and locking in I think over a week ago? Longer? I tuned in on tues and expected this then but then got sucked in with promising guidance at close leads. All of the daily deep analysis out in time for over a week+ get overruled and tossed aside literally as the event is happening. Talking specifics and details in the med range+ has totally lost it's luster for me last few years and today is just another friendly reminder to use my free time on more productive things. Lo 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’ve said this once before, and I will say it again. Please don’t EVER bring these images and disco of that storm in this forum. That was one of the worst Christmases ever watching that storm slip away. This gives me worse PTSD than that other storm that shall not be named. . My wife and teen kids talked about that storm today. It brought back unwanted memories of literally not enjoying christmas with my kids all that much as I couldn't get the stink off. It was too painful how it happened. We were all coming off a ridiculous heater from 09-10. All cocky and confident we would add another Dec crush job to a very short list. Then reality hit. A good analogy would be hitting the blackjack table and doing no wrong for hours. You pick up your newly minted mountain of chips and walk away giddy. Sometime later you go back to the table feeling cocky and lucky AF. Then in a few short hours you lose the ENTIRE STACK of chips and many more. Then get up feeling like your going to puke and hitting the atm to grab your last $20 on earth just so you can take a taxi ride of shame home instead of walking in 33 degree rain with no jacket. Yea, that feeling = boxing day 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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