WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 22 hours ago, caviman2201 said: 2.5 inches snow temp 28 wind ne 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do That’s called our climo, Miller B Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. Yea, it's actually really encouraging. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pixie dust actually starting to accumulate again, now that it is late enough in the afternoon that we don't have to deal with the late Jan/early Feb sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. And this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 And the kiss of death from LWX: “Further South ,(I.e DC and surrounding counties) the precip amounts will be on the lighter side Monday and Monday evening. With snow accumulations less than an inch or two. “ ugh. This hobby—now you see it and taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM's, RGEM and ICON all agree on having light/moderate snow in most of maryland tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Not anything amazing in regards to the CCB but it's there. A chance for many to pick up a few more inches up to another 4-8" for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: And this Just so close, even a 50 mile trend south or verifying that way puts the northern crew into 15” totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, T. August said: Can’t even hit 2” lol That’s a personal problem. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4:15pm, Columbia east side: Just shoveled, snow feels much icier now. 27 degrees, lowest temp since dawn (got down to 25.6 during the night, but was 28 at dawn and topped out at 30 today) 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Pixie dust actually starting to accumulate again, now that it is late enough in the afternoon that we don't have to deal with the late Jan/early Feb sun angle. Pretty epic storm for early April. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. I find it hilarious that models are STILL, like 18 hours away, whiffing on how much snow we will get. Are Miller Bs that bad for us and they mess with models that hard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Steve D sticking with his totals. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pushing 2” in Annapolis with a nice band coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. At what point will we know if it is too far NE for dc metro to get any wrap-around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, jayyy said: You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well. I show up as “2 W Elkridge”, but yes Columbia. Another spotter is nearby with the same handle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Please just get us a pure miller A storm that we all get all snow from. Doesn't need to be a HECS or even a MECS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM snows through Wednesday on the Eastern Shore. Nuts. Rates have picked back up out here. Radar looking much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: NAM snows through Wednesday on the Eastern Shore. Nuts. Ninja’d me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Please just get us a pure miller A storm that we all get all snow from. Doesn't need to be a HECS or even a MECS That’s coming next Sunday, patience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Interesting to see the 3k nam at hr 48 with a band very similar to the localized heavy band on the EURO through central MD to the bay and on the eastern shore on tuesday. Wouldn't that be something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. North Central NJ on that image from the ICON is a snow magnet when it comes to Miller Bs. Wasn't that a hot spot for Boxing Day too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well, here is a positive post... had a decent band finally just now that whitened the street again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Seeing a few mets saying NWS and others are getting too jumpy with their changes in forecasts. Miller b’s do come with one thing - the element of surprise. There’s 0 way to know or model where this CCB sets up or how quickly the coastal gets going. We’re going to have to be patient. Still Have a good feeling about the area from I-70 north and north east come tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: At what point will we know if it is too far NE for dc metro to get any wrap-around? Hang on give me one sec...ok we know. Too far NE. 32 with FZDZ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I find it hilarious that models are STILL, like 18 hours away, whiffing on how much snow we will get. Are Miller Bs that bad for us and they mess with models that hard? Miller Bs are just complicated. Climatologically, they’re not the MOST successful for DC, but that’s neither here nor there. IMO Miller Bs have too many points of variance to be modeled as accurately as something like a clipper or a Miller A. (Although those do bust sometimes) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers It’s funny you say this, I actually felt very similar 4-5 days ago. You articulate one of my concerns very well — which was the typical Jackpot spots were underperforming and that the variance between model runs wasn’t waffling in a way that screamed dc-nova-md banding. I personally thought the manner in which the transfer happens and the low positioned itself seemed to lend itself to later (hence more NW) development and the ccb would be to our NW/NE. However, it’s touch and go around these parts now. If you naysay snow too much around here you get axed. Is what it is. But I like the ridge building my out west through the period and recycling of some of our blocking to the north. Our cold source is much better than 4-6 weeks ago. I say we definitely see some good model runs coming in the intermediate, perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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