clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM snows through Wednesday on the Eastern Shore. Nuts. Rates have picked back up out here. Radar looking much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: NAM snows through Wednesday on the Eastern Shore. Nuts. Ninja’d me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Please just get us a pure miller A storm that we all get all snow from. Doesn't need to be a HECS or even a MECS That’s coming next Sunday, patience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Interesting to see the 3k nam at hr 48 with a band very similar to the localized heavy band on the EURO through central MD to the bay and on the eastern shore on tuesday. Wouldn't that be something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. North Central NJ on that image from the ICON is a snow magnet when it comes to Miller Bs. Wasn't that a hot spot for Boxing Day too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well, here is a positive post... had a decent band finally just now that whitened the street again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Seeing a few mets saying NWS and others are getting too jumpy with their changes in forecasts. Miller b’s do come with one thing - the element of surprise. There’s 0 way to know or model where this CCB sets up or how quickly the coastal gets going. We’re going to have to be patient. Still Have a good feeling about the area from I-70 north and north east come tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: At what point will we know if it is too far NE for dc metro to get any wrap-around? Hang on give me one sec...ok we know. Too far NE. 32 with FZDZ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I find it hilarious that models are STILL, like 18 hours away, whiffing on how much snow we will get. Are Miller Bs that bad for us and they mess with models that hard? Miller Bs are just complicated. Climatologically, they’re not the MOST successful for DC, but that’s neither here nor there. IMO Miller Bs have too many points of variance to be modeled as accurately as something like a clipper or a Miller A. (Although those do bust sometimes) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers It’s funny you say this, I actually felt very similar 4-5 days ago. You articulate one of my concerns very well — which was the typical Jackpot spots were underperforming and that the variance between model runs wasn’t waffling in a way that screamed dc-nova-md banding. I personally thought the manner in which the transfer happens and the low positioned itself seemed to lend itself to later (hence more NW) development and the ccb would be to our NW/NE. However, it’s touch and go around these parts now. If you naysay snow too much around here you get axed. Is what it is. But I like the ridge building my out west through the period and recycling of some of our blocking to the north. Our cold source is much better than 4-6 weeks ago. I say we definitely see some good model runs coming in the intermediate, perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: North Central NJ on that image from the ICON is a snow magnet when it comes to Miller Bs. Wasn't that a hot spot for Boxing Day too ? I grew up right over the border in Rockland county NY. 10 mins north of Bergen County NJ. NNJ into the lower Hudson valley into SW CT and coastal RI / MA always jack on these storms. Always. Someone in the higher elevations of NWNJ will see 30” I bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NE MD, Northern DE, getting it. Notice the difference here from Philly ( 17 inches ) to Wilmington , De ( 8.7 inches ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: North Central NJ on that image from the ICON is a snow magnet when it comes to Miller Bs. Wasn't that a hot spot for Boxing Day too ? I’m not up on my history since I haven’t been tracking snow for that long, but I do know where to find the answer! It appears you are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: NE MD, Northern DE, getting it. Notice the difference here from Philly ( 17 inches ) to Wilmington , De ( 8.7 inches ) I’ll sign on for 8.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: North Central NJ on that image from the ICON is a snow magnet when it comes to Miller Bs. Wasn't that a hot spot for Boxing Day too ? Remember December 30, 2000? DC was supposed to get 4 - 8 inches from that storm. We got CLEAR SKIES, while Northwestern NJ got bombed with 25 inches. Here in Vienna, VA, the moderate snow stopped around 9 a.m., and it's been nothing but light or very light snow since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Mount Holly, some cool wording. They always do an exceptional job in the AFD. In response to the the deepening surface low and increasing cold air advection, the wintry mix along I-95 will quickly change back over to snow Monday morning, and the rain/snow line will push back toward the coast throughout the day. The strongest winds and heaviest snow rates are not forecast to align (strongest winds likely occurring in rain and mixing), therefore precluding the need for a Blizzard Warning. A change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (frontogenetic forcing) and wrap-around precip regime early Monday. The latest 12Z guidance suite has continued trending the f-gen banding potential a bit northward, which suggests the greatest potential for this to occur across portions of northern New Jersey (north of I-195) and eastern Pennsylvania (Lehigh Valley and east/north). West of the f-gen forcing, some guidance suggests that a dry-slot will advect in around daybreak west of the Philly metro. The storm total snowfall forecast was updated to reflect these features and the mixing farther south/west. Generally 6-12" is forecast for around the Philly metro with less south/east and more to the north. The axis of f-gen can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding may exceed the broadbrush ~18-24" storm total snowfall locally that is currently forecast in these areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Good size aggregate flakes here in Crofton (AA County), though I fear such is a prelude to a mix coming soon from the SW (which the CC would imply). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Sleet has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, jayyy said: Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. Watch it’s movement next. ene very bad, nne OK. N-nne very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, kgottwald said: Remember December 30, 2000? DC was supposed to get 4 - 8 inches from that storm. We got CLEAR SKIES, while Northwestern NJ got bombed with 25 inches. Here in Vienna, VA, the moderate snow stopped around 9 a.m., and it's been nothing but light or very light snow since. Very much so, The snow area missed me by miles. A crazy gradient from West to East. To say the least I was bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 https://ibb.co/R4hVNY5 Ton of convection popping up off the Carolinas. Coastal’s getting its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some nice Returns to Baltimore’s southwest unless it’s just sleet. Hopefully that delivers our additional inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nice afternoon for a fire 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Some nice Returns to Baltimore’s southwest unless it’s just sleet. Hopefully that delivers our additional inch or 2 It’s not sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Game time off the coast of NC...let’s see what she does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best rates since this morning. 4.5 total for the event so far. Would love to beat the 9 inches I got in December. Radar starting to blossom down around Harrisonburg. Nice to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 holding at 3.2 inches - hoping something decent re-organizes and gives better flakes again for awhile in Balt City. Been snizzle for about three hours now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Interesting little linear feature on radar running from like Woodstock, VA down to east of Waynesboro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It was a bust... so was the December storm, and the the one before that, and the one before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Game time off the coast of NC...let’s see what she does. Yup. Lots of thunderstorms off the coastline. Last frame of the radar loop you can begin to see a little filling in NoVa and bridging of the two main areas of low pressure. It’s going to be wicked close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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