jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My folks were just upgraded to 18-24 in their Wsw. Never a good sign for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s perfect here- around 2 inches of snow, still coming down. Had a great time out playing with my son. My winter is complete! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Is this also what caused the WAA to bust low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2.7” with my 4pm spotter report 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Encouraging trends on the the 18z nams! Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not. I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them. Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just in from a 3 mile Jen walk. Nice wintry afternoon out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Lol. Thank god it was cold today. It’s been nice to see everything completely covered in snow. But this is a bust in my book. I had about 2 hours of decent snow. Everything else has been pixie dust or flurries It was brought up by a met that the lack of cold air dynamics were poor in the NE areas of the forum, the beach and areas far to my South did much better ( multiple inches ) compared to areas further North . At least so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said: You might get lucky up there the boundary seems stuck over me for now, going between sleet and snow at the moment. Coming down heavier now with large dendrites. Listening for the pingers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. 18z ICON gives us some nice light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon/evening! Eastern shore looks to do well tomorrow night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 2.7” with my 4pm spotter report You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Either he is being sarcastic, lives in NYC, or was looking at some run of the NAM that I'm unaware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4pm update Back from shoveling. Pretty darn brisk. 31F and snow rates 0.25ph to periodic 0.5. 2.75” accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. If so then you have ops and short range models hitting on that. Tomorrow afternoon and evening may be the big win for me, not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 What’s up with all the tipos? amd who’s Jen? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Yup this is one last hurrah before the mix line races north at the speed of light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Secondary forming off the NC Coastline. I mean... it’s so damn close. So close to being what we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: Told my parents that they should be on the lookout Monday night into Tuesday. I suspect someone between Nyack NY and Ashbury Park NJ will get a foot in 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 View from my front porch. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers How about this Euro run from last week for this storm? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Coming down heavier now with large dendrites. Listening for the pingers lol. Yeah we had that here from 200 till 330 it was gorgeous. It is about 50/50 here now, it really wants to snow, usually once we get sleet it's gameover. Down to 30.9 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Both of the 18z NAMS are encouraging for the Maryland side of the Potomac, and especially up through Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore to the NE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: 28/28 and very light snow. Almost 7”. nw of Staunton Lurking from the SE forum to look at all of the beautiful pictures but these are gorgeous! Definitely frame worthy! The one with the river looks magical! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 inches in NW rockville. Haven't seen anything heavier than light snow all day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. If I can achieve 6 to 8 I be delighted. Being a snow weenie and using 500 x close up I am trying to figure out why there is a 4 to 6 over my house when everything else surrounding it is 6 to 8 come on ICON what the Fucck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 18z 12k NAM is encouraging for the Maryland side of the Potomac, and especially up through Baltimore. It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3.5” in Leesburg here. Best snow in hours now with radar filling back in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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