MDstorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers How about this Euro run from last week for this storm? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Coming down heavier now with large dendrites. Listening for the pingers lol. Yeah we had that here from 200 till 330 it was gorgeous. It is about 50/50 here now, it really wants to snow, usually once we get sleet it's gameover. Down to 30.9 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Both of the 18z NAMS are encouraging for the Maryland side of the Potomac, and especially up through Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore to the NE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: 28/28 and very light snow. Almost 7”. nw of Staunton Lurking from the SE forum to look at all of the beautiful pictures but these are gorgeous! Definitely frame worthy! The one with the river looks magical! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 inches in NW rockville. Haven't seen anything heavier than light snow all day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. If I can achieve 6 to 8 I be delighted. Being a snow weenie and using 500 x close up I am trying to figure out why there is a 4 to 6 over my house when everything else surrounding it is 6 to 8 come on ICON what the Fucck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 18z 12k NAM is encouraging for the Maryland side of the Potomac, and especially up through Baltimore. It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3.5” in Leesburg here. Best snow in hours now with radar filling back in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 22 hours ago, caviman2201 said: 2.5 inches snow temp 28 wind ne 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do That’s called our climo, Miller B Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. Yea, it's actually really encouraging. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pixie dust actually starting to accumulate again, now that it is late enough in the afternoon that we don't have to deal with the late Jan/early Feb sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals. And this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 And the kiss of death from LWX: “Further South ,(I.e DC and surrounding counties) the precip amounts will be on the lighter side Monday and Monday evening. With snow accumulations less than an inch or two. “ ugh. This hobby—now you see it and taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM's, RGEM and ICON all agree on having light/moderate snow in most of maryland tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Not anything amazing in regards to the CCB but it's there. A chance for many to pick up a few more inches up to another 4-8" for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: And this Just so close, even a 50 mile trend south or verifying that way puts the northern crew into 15” totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here. 50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, T. August said: Can’t even hit 2” lol That’s a personal problem. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4:15pm, Columbia east side: Just shoveled, snow feels much icier now. 27 degrees, lowest temp since dawn (got down to 25.6 during the night, but was 28 at dawn and topped out at 30 today) 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Pixie dust actually starting to accumulate again, now that it is late enough in the afternoon that we don't have to deal with the late Jan/early Feb sun angle. Pretty epic storm for early April. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: I’ll eat my shorts if DC gets 8”. I find it hilarious that models are STILL, like 18 hours away, whiffing on how much snow we will get. Are Miller Bs that bad for us and they mess with models that hard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Steve D sticking with his totals. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pushing 2” in Annapolis with a nice band coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. At what point will we know if it is too far NE for dc metro to get any wrap-around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, jayyy said: You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well. I show up as “2 W Elkridge”, but yes Columbia. Another spotter is nearby with the same handle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Please just get us a pure miller A storm that we all get all snow from. Doesn't need to be a HECS or even a MECS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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