SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sleeting there? Yup. Hopefully you can hold on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, SnowtoRain said: Yup. Hopefully you can hold on longer. Probably not much longer. Last hurrah now I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Interesting snow may be heavy at times , accumulations less than 1 inch. ( very uncertain I guess ) Mount Holly forecast for my area. MONDAY Monday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before noon, then sleet between noon and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Monday Night MONDAY NIGHT Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range. Not a total bust but I think for DC we can say most of the coastal effects will be northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Very interesting. Thanks for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get yeah congrats I suppose. Another 40 inch winter looking likely for them. Meanwhile think DCA broke an inch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Thanks PSU. Huge disappointment! Typical for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get So then why mention this? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Man those greens are just falling apart as they stream north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: It’s too far north. Rule of thumb is precipitation tends to shut off once the low pressure gets to or passes ones latitude. That stuff on the 3k that losetoa6 mentioned isnt the deform. It’s that weird inverted trough feature that the Euro is picking up on. Maybe we get lucky and it happens but I’m not counting on it I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Must. Utilize. Paragraphs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Yeah, still crystals and flurries. Can't get the better flakes to turn back on. Another .5" on the board - at 3 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get It's my fault guys. I just moved back here from Harlem so the bad luck is following me. In 2016 I took the bus down here because New York wasn't in on the goods--until like 46 hours out or less. I swear I have the worst luck in the world! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Probably around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Must. Utilize. Paragraphs. Wrong--you need to read more postmodern maximalism! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Can’t even hit 2” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives. 2016 was a much different system man. The primary and coastal was much further to the south the primary tracked over Atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Buisness is picking up here in SE DC...temp down to 32 from 34 earlier this afternoon. Streets lookin' like snow cones. Rates I'd call 'light moderate'. Mixed size flakes. Unless there's some overall accumulation I'm wondering if we'll even make minimum totals here. Makes me despise clown maps all the more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Got some good rates again now. Temp down to 30. Hopefully the snow can hang on long enough to get me to 3". Just another quarter of an inch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: 2016 was a much different system man. The primary and coastal was much further to the south the primary tracked over Atlanta... Was gonna say..... the evolution is nowhere near the same as 2016. That thing was a monster that tracked out of the south East and up the coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get And this is why I’m so frustrated by our results. Philly also wont be far off from this, and they really are not that far away and its not like they gain major elevation. Just ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Now you see why I prefer digital snow 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Dang...I thought 4-6" from the WAA was a bit more secure (was never betting on much from the coastal)...but we're gonna struggle to get to 4" at this rate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The only time it doesn't rain now is when we get two inches from a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Updated LWX AFD: Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 403 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2021 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING, TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT, TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA TIDEWATER COAST AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A DEARTH OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE CWA, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR PRECIP TO TREND LIGHTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. STILL SEEING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SAID DRIZZLE LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WE ARE SEEING MIX PRECIPITATION AND EVEN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BEGIN TO MARCH NORTH AND WEST. DO EXPECT THIS MIX PRECIP TO ENCROACH ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHILE AMOUNTS/RATES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIX PRECIP WILL EVEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND, WITH WESTERN MARYLAND LIKELY REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO HOLD ON WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE DOMINATE PTYPE. MINOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MANY SURFACES BECOMING ICY AFTER NIGHTFALL AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AND MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE LOW GATHERING ITSELF OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CURRENT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WE SPEAK, BUT WE WILL BE LOOKING TO MAKE CHANGES BY THIS EVENING, TRANSITIONING SOME AREAS TO ADVISORIES AS LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW WILL EMERGE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH, ADVECTING IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 50 WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES RELEGATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. FURTHER SOUTH, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. THE LOW WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PAINTING LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. THE LOW WILL START TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, LESSENING A TOUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S, FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Now you see why I prefer digital snow Lol. Thank god it was cold today. It’s been nice to see everything completely covered in snow. But this is a bust in my book. I had about 2 hours of decent snow. Everything else has been pixie dust or flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Got some good rates again now. Temp down to 30. Hopefully the snow can hang on long enough to get me to 3". Just another quarter of an inch.. You might get lucky up there the boundary seems stuck over me for now, going between sleet and snow at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Still light snow presently , maybe 1/2 inch. Not very confident about the daytime forecast of 1 to 3 inches and the night time total of 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Encouraging trends on the the 18z nams! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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