jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: 2016 was a much different system man. The primary and coastal was much further to the south the primary tracked over Atlanta... Was gonna say..... the evolution is nowhere near the same as 2016. That thing was a monster that tracked out of the south East and up the coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get And this is why I’m so frustrated by our results. Philly also wont be far off from this, and they really are not that far away and its not like they gain major elevation. Just ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Now you see why I prefer digital snow 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Dang...I thought 4-6" from the WAA was a bit more secure (was never betting on much from the coastal)...but we're gonna struggle to get to 4" at this rate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The only time it doesn't rain now is when we get two inches from a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Updated LWX AFD: Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 403 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2021 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING, TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT, TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA TIDEWATER COAST AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A DEARTH OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE CWA, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR PRECIP TO TREND LIGHTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. STILL SEEING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SAID DRIZZLE LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WE ARE SEEING MIX PRECIPITATION AND EVEN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BEGIN TO MARCH NORTH AND WEST. DO EXPECT THIS MIX PRECIP TO ENCROACH ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHILE AMOUNTS/RATES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIX PRECIP WILL EVEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND, WITH WESTERN MARYLAND LIKELY REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO HOLD ON WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE DOMINATE PTYPE. MINOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MANY SURFACES BECOMING ICY AFTER NIGHTFALL AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AND MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE LOW GATHERING ITSELF OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CURRENT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WE SPEAK, BUT WE WILL BE LOOKING TO MAKE CHANGES BY THIS EVENING, TRANSITIONING SOME AREAS TO ADVISORIES AS LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW WILL EMERGE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH, ADVECTING IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 50 WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES RELEGATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. FURTHER SOUTH, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. THE LOW WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PAINTING LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. THE LOW WILL START TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, LESSENING A TOUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S, FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Now you see why I prefer digital snow Lol. Thank god it was cold today. It’s been nice to see everything completely covered in snow. But this is a bust in my book. I had about 2 hours of decent snow. Everything else has been pixie dust or flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Got some good rates again now. Temp down to 30. Hopefully the snow can hang on long enough to get me to 3". Just another quarter of an inch.. You might get lucky up there the boundary seems stuck over me for now, going between sleet and snow at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Still light snow presently , maybe 1/2 inch. Not very confident about the daytime forecast of 1 to 3 inches and the night time total of 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Encouraging trends on the the 18z nams! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My folks were just upgraded to 18-24 in their Wsw. Never a good sign for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s perfect here- around 2 inches of snow, still coming down. Had a great time out playing with my son. My winter is complete! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Is this also what caused the WAA to bust low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2.7” with my 4pm spotter report 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Encouraging trends on the the 18z nams! Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not. I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them. Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just in from a 3 mile Jen walk. Nice wintry afternoon out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Lol. Thank god it was cold today. It’s been nice to see everything completely covered in snow. But this is a bust in my book. I had about 2 hours of decent snow. Everything else has been pixie dust or flurries It was brought up by a met that the lack of cold air dynamics were poor in the NE areas of the forum, the beach and areas far to my South did much better ( multiple inches ) compared to areas further North . At least so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said: You might get lucky up there the boundary seems stuck over me for now, going between sleet and snow at the moment. Coming down heavier now with large dendrites. Listening for the pingers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. 18z ICON gives us some nice light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon/evening! Eastern shore looks to do well tomorrow night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 2.7” with my 4pm spotter report You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously Either he is being sarcastic, lives in NYC, or was looking at some run of the NAM that I'm unaware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4pm update Back from shoveling. Pretty darn brisk. 31F and snow rates 0.25ph to periodic 0.5. 2.75” accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. If so then you have ops and short range models hitting on that. Tomorrow afternoon and evening may be the big win for me, not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 What’s up with all the tipos? amd who’s Jen? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Yup this is one last hurrah before the mix line races north at the speed of light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Secondary forming off the NC Coastline. I mean... it’s so damn close. So close to being what we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, frd said: Told my parents that they should be on the lookout Monday night into Tuesday. I suspect someone between Nyack NY and Ashbury Park NJ will get a foot in 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 View from my front porch. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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