Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: From the warm air advection, probably. But everyone is still hoping on the coastal to deliver some love and it's still possible, especially up here in the Baltimore area. Nam doesn't show much...more like the usual Miller B hole and some light snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: This. loving it! I have more than double my total from last winter. Hard to complain when we have sucked for 2 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Still crappy rates. Just flurries basically. Haven’t been able to get the rates to pick back up since about 1-130. Hope they get going again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Time for some sidewalk clearing Gonna leave the cars alone because if we get ice later would rather clear off a crusty 3” snowpack than glare ice or 0.5” glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers This was probably the lesson I pulled from this...all my apparently obnoxious questions did get me more info to remember for later...Not just NWP, but climo in expectations...makes sense. If it ain't worked before, take any NWP with a huge grain of salt. But had I not asked, wouldn't have known. But maybe I can't ask anymore, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Deform lookin band Tuesday on the 3k . That's 2 days away ......off and on snow for like 50+ hours. Pretty unique setup Got a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 More of this please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 30 degrees. 2 1/2 inches. driveway and neighbor's driveway clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Per Ian, we got about 2.5" on the ground here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar continues to be so spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I have more than double my total from last winter. Hard to complain when we have sucked for 2 years. Yup, 2.5" up here..biggest in 2 years, so I can't complain much. We all want more and it sucks to see Philly-NYC get pounded, but....Miller B. We'll deal with it and be just fine. It's snowing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like the WAA game is over for me on the shore, snowed from 9 to 330, had some nice heavy snow at times, total accumulation just over 3". Good luck to everyone else! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Radar continues to be so spotty. bring on next weekend's storm! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Visibility down to 0.5”mi or so, so legit mod snow. Keep this up for a few more hours and 4-5” will be easy. Took a drive to get my daughter and side roads all covered. Even main roads a little slushy. Snow growth here in southern Howard County is still quite poor, with small single crystals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well...do we really know? Thought the WAA was until tonight? 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nam doesn't show much...more like the usual Miller B hole and some light snow It's time to just look at the radar or the really short term models. The NAM is probably right, but it's not really the most useful tool right now. Whatever the WAA was 'supposed' to do means diddly squat now. The radar shows that it's passing us and we're going to have to get some pretty decent redevelopment on the back end to cash in significantly (at least here in DC, you're definitely in a better spot). Our best chance at a bunch more is with the coastal (for which you're also in a better spot). Most of your posts are looking for details and forecasts that just aren't possible at this point. You're going to have to learn from experience how these things tend to work--which in this case is that these Miller Bs indeed do tend to jump us. Things have not been going our way so far, but this is East Coast winter weather, anything can happen. I remember the second Feb 2010 blizzard came out of absolutely nowhere. If the coastal's precip shield is wider than expected, if the Low stalls farther south and west, etc. etc. Just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, heavy_wx said: Snow growth here in southern Howard County is still quite poor, with small single crystals. has been minimal in frederick as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Raining here... hopefully ending soon so some snow can stay on the ground for looking at while working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, heavy_wx said: Snow growth here in southern Howard County is still quite poor, with small single crystals. Yup, it’s never been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32.9 and light drizzle. Temp down .5 degree in last hour, still calm winds. Snow receding steadily, but still good ground cover. Went for a short drive, generally seems to be a bit more snow north, a bit less south of my location. Roads wet and clear. My street has been 'plowed' 6 times--the snow was off on the first 2 passes. Watched one plow literally plow off the sand/salt dropped by the previous guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cool looking linear features down in Spotsy and similar areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Posting this for future reference. The latest update from SPC meso analysis page show the nasty dry slot at 700mb. If this low was over Kentucky, just about everyone would be in a better situation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 good bit of sleet mixing in with light snow now. game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Looks like the WAA game is over for me on the shore, snowed from 9 to 330, had some nice heavy snow at times, total accumulation just over 3". Good luck to everyone else! Sleeting there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 And just like that snow picking up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 About 3" in Derwood. Been outside with the kids twice now and enjoyed every second. Took the advice of many and stopped watching the models and instead enjoyed the snow TV instead. Hoping for another round next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Deform lookin band Tuesday on the 3k . That's 2 days away ......off and on snow for like 50+ hours. Pretty unique setup Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston? It’s too far north. Rule of thumb is precipitation tends to shut off once the low pressure gets to or passes ones latitude. That stuff on the 3k that losetoa6 mentioned isnt the deform. It’s that weird inverted trough feature that the Euro is picking up on. Maybe we get lucky and it happens but I’m not counting on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best rates of the day so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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