Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cool looking linear features down in Spotsy and similar areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Posting this for future reference. The latest update from SPC meso analysis page show the nasty dry slot at 700mb. If this low was over Kentucky, just about everyone would be in a better situation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 good bit of sleet mixing in with light snow now. game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Looks like the WAA game is over for me on the shore, snowed from 9 to 330, had some nice heavy snow at times, total accumulation just over 3". Good luck to everyone else! Sleeting there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 And just like that snow picking up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 About 3" in Derwood. Been outside with the kids twice now and enjoyed every second. Took the advice of many and stopped watching the models and instead enjoyed the snow TV instead. Hoping for another round next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Deform lookin band Tuesday on the 3k . That's 2 days away ......off and on snow for like 50+ hours. Pretty unique setup Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston? It’s too far north. Rule of thumb is precipitation tends to shut off once the low pressure gets to or passes ones latitude. That stuff on the 3k that losetoa6 mentioned isnt the deform. It’s that weird inverted trough feature that the Euro is picking up on. Maybe we get lucky and it happens but I’m not counting on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best rates of the day so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sleeting there? Yup. Hopefully you can hold on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, SnowtoRain said: Yup. Hopefully you can hold on longer. Probably not much longer. Last hurrah now I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Interesting snow may be heavy at times , accumulations less than 1 inch. ( very uncertain I guess ) Mount Holly forecast for my area. MONDAY Monday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before noon, then sleet between noon and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Monday Night MONDAY NIGHT Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range. Not a total bust but I think for DC we can say most of the coastal effects will be northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Very interesting. Thanks for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get yeah congrats I suppose. Another 40 inch winter looking likely for them. Meanwhile think DCA broke an inch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Thanks PSU. Huge disappointment! Typical for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get So then why mention this? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Man those greens are just falling apart as they stream north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: It’s too far north. Rule of thumb is precipitation tends to shut off once the low pressure gets to or passes ones latitude. That stuff on the 3k that losetoa6 mentioned isnt the deform. It’s that weird inverted trough feature that the Euro is picking up on. Maybe we get lucky and it happens but I’m not counting on it I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west. Must. Utilize. Paragraphs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Yeah, still crystals and flurries. Can't get the better flakes to turn back on. Another .5" on the board - at 3 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NWS New York just went for 18-24 inches for NYC and surrounding areas but who gives a crap about what they get It's my fault guys. I just moved back here from Harlem so the bad luck is following me. In 2016 I took the bus down here because New York wasn't in on the goods--until like 46 hours out or less. I swear I have the worst luck in the world! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Probably around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Must. Utilize. Paragraphs. Wrong--you need to read more postmodern maximalism! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Can’t even hit 2” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives. 2016 was a much different system man. The primary and coastal was much further to the south the primary tracked over Atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Buisness is picking up here in SE DC...temp down to 32 from 34 earlier this afternoon. Streets lookin' like snow cones. Rates I'd call 'light moderate'. Mixed size flakes. Unless there's some overall accumulation I'm wondering if we'll even make minimum totals here. Makes me despise clown maps all the more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Got some good rates again now. Temp down to 30. Hopefully the snow can hang on long enough to get me to 3". Just another quarter of an inch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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