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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. The primary is moving due east across the country unable to gain latitude. We can’t do anything about the fact that it came in pretty far north out west. That was always going to be an issue. But the primary is forced due east and transfers to the outer banks!  That’s all we can ask for from “suppression”. It’s snowing into southern VA today!  The issue is the wave is coming across at a high latitude starting out and the ridge out west is slightly east of where we want. The result is the major amplification and phase that happens is too late. It swings slightly too east before it captures. What would a more suppressive flow done to this scenario?  So even more suppression and the wave would be shearing out even more on approach and we likely get even less today from WAA. And I doubt it even helps with the coastal as it would likely swing even further out before amplifying and miss everyone. We needed the trough to amplify in the east a little sooner/further west. That’s all. We got all the suppression we needed unless you wanted to see another weak wave over NC today. 

Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range.

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15 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

 I miss the old Unisys site’s 3-hr pressure change map. That would come in handy today to help ID the developing coastal’s general whereabouts. 
Has been snowing nicely again for past 45 mins. 

Here’s what I use for 3 hr pressure change:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/change/change.html

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

that drier air from nova through central md hasn't budged all day.  actually kind of impressive.  in hindsight, the gfs is looking pretty solid.  it barely wavered all week and consistently had most of the energy further north.  still think we can get a few hours of better rates here as things congeal overhead, but yea...can't have a primary that far north and west.  if so, then a redeveloping low over the tn valley might have yielded a better outcome.

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