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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

I've seen snow stick on roads better in March than what I am seeing now.

It’s all about rates man. When ive had good rates, the snow has stuck to the roads with no problem. When it’s light or pixie dust it’s no good. It doesn’t matter what the time of year is if you don’t have the rates or if it isn’t 20 degrees, it won’t accumulate on the pavement well 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Remember when you were worried about suppression a few days ago?

Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. The primary is moving due east across the country unable to gain latitude. We can’t do anything about the fact that it came in pretty far north out west. That was always going to be an issue. But the primary is forced due east and transfers to the outer banks!  That’s all we can ask for from “suppression”. It’s snowing into southern VA today!  The issue is the wave is coming across at a high latitude starting out and the ridge out west is slightly east of where we want. The result is the major amplification and phase that happens is too late. It swings slightly too east before it captures. What would a more suppressive flow done to this scenario?  So even more suppression and the wave would be shearing out even more on approach and we likely get even less today from WAA. And I doubt it even helps with the coastal as it would likely swing even further out before amplifying and miss everyone. We needed the trough to amplify in the east a little sooner/further west. That’s all. We got all the suppression we needed unless you wanted to see another weak wave over NC today. 

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Just now, CAPE said:

Snow is picking up here again and the wind is too. Snow flying out of the trees. Visibility is much lower. I like it.

This is the timeframe the models have been advertising with the best potential. Lets git it.

 

Yeah we just had that push through here, I forgot how great heavy snow is.

 

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This place (mid-alantic) should be like met winter forecasting bootcamp. The training should include two winter seasons of forecasting mid-atlantic winter events. Then again, maybe not a good idea... 90% may quit and never finish their degree.

 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. The primary is moving due east across the country unable to gain latitude. We can’t do anything about the fact that it came in pretty far north out west. That was always going to be an issue. But the primary is forced due east and transfers to the outer banks!  That’s all we can ask for from “suppression”. It’s snowing into southern VA today!  The issue is the wave is coming across at a high latitude starting out and the ridge out west is slightly east of where we want. The result is the major amplification and phase that happens is too late. It swings slightly too east before it captures. What would a more suppressive flow done to this scenario?  So even more suppression and the wave would be shearing out even more on approach and we likely get even less today from WAA. And I doubt it even helps with the coastal as it would likely swing even further out before amplifying and miss everyone. We needed the trough to amplify in the east a little sooner/further west. That’s all. We got all the suppression we needed unless you wanted to see another weak wave over NC today. 

Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range.

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