Rvarookie Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Never get to hear about @psuhoffmanobs. How ya doing up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Maybe it's the artificial optimist in me, but I think over the next several hours we're going to begin to see the low redeveloping off the coast and backfilling across the DC area. You can see the nascence of it on radar, just at the end of its loops. It's going to tease you for a couple hours so be prepared for that, but give it enough time and it will fill. The question is whether it fills too far E/NE, but that's another battle for another time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just back from my walk intensity picked up during which is fun...felt like it got colder as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Pretty much stopped even drizzling snow here in Rockville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Does anyone have decent radar I can use? I swear I've lost everything after moving back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I grew up in Baltimore and live in Midland, TX now. I lived in Baltimore/MoCo area for basically 28 years, so I know how Miller B’s work in climo. The models were not showing an improbable western motion considering the UL evolution of the 5H and 7H levels as both were displaying a more southern transition latitude which would invoke a capture of the low level circulation and force it back westward between Norfolk and OCMD. It’s happened plenty of other times. The storm is still going to stall, just at a further north latitude due to a late capture as the 5H low and 7H inflection over the OH Valley went further north than most global guidance was indicating. However, the ensemble guidance did keep that within the envelope of reason, so there was concern for a northern trend always on the table based on both climo and NWP signals. I never poopoo observational analysis since it is very important with regards to trends, but you can’t base it during long range forecasting with time frames of significance to EM’s and DOT workers for prep times and decision making. That’s where NWP comes in and inside 72 hrs is when you utilize Observational trends and NWP to your advantage. I’ve seen your take on modern NWP, and as someone who analyzes the statistical variance and overall scoring after UA and surface reanalysis, you don’t give NWP nearly enough credit for what it produces. Analogs are why Midland nailed the end of 2020 historic snowstorm out here and we blew away our neighboring offices. I’m a huge fan of CIPS and it’s database. Your expertise in regional climo and historical data keeping will absolutely help you in varying setups and it is appreciated during short term trends, but it will absolutely not work with decision making at a local and state level where 72-96 hrs is necessary for planning and staging. Being overly prepared is better than the alternative, despite the respite it might incur from up top in government settings. I would never mute you for any reason unless you actually disrespected me on a personal level or are attacking me, so you’ll never get the mute. Hopefully you can cash this afternoon on more snow as I bathe under sun and the typical cirrus. I hope to get back East and extend my career while improving my forecasting abilities and helping the general public. I also want to get back to the area I grew up in, or at least within the Northeast US vicinity. Enjoy the snow . Midland is where baby Jessica went down the well. I dont know how big Midland Is but I disagree with the need for 3-4 day lead time for preparation. That’s just poor organization . It’s winter, always be at the ready, . We contract for forecasting to several management companies for snow removal in commercial and residential lots. 48 hours in is what we provide . We started updating them Friday 7am. Trying to get them on alert days before that is unproductive. I well may not be able to tell you 5 days in advance what that low in Colorado is going to do to DC but the models cant either other than to show myriads of examples. There is also the “need to know” aspect that far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ka60 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Does anyone have decent radar I can use? I swear I've lost everything after moving back here COD NEXRAD: LWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Best rates and flakes of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Back to decent sized flakes here - accumulating again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Back to decent sized flakes here - accumulating again. I was just going to make a similar post. Getting some bigger flakes coming down here again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some greenies trying to get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I suppose if it can stay at this rate I can nickle and dime my way to 4-5" coming down shy of moderate right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ka60 said: COD NEXRAD: LWX You are an absolute godsend. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The race is on. Temp up to 31. Need a couple hours of fatties flying before the 850s toast. Come the eff on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Plow came through and put down a hefty layer of salt as well. Bye bye road accumulation. Shoveled walkway and driveway aren't really accumulating at this point. Snow is too light for right now. Some more enhancement showing on radar in splotches near Culpeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Not doing a proper snow board, but there's a solid 2" on smooth surfaces right now (a bit north of DTSS). It's enough for the kids to throw snowballs and sled, not enough to really go nuts or bother shoveling yet. Essentially nothing but snow dust right now. Its not accumulating. (eta at 2:33pm it's legitimately snowing again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ka60 said: COD NEXRAD: LWX I know this is really stupid but...how the heck do you change locations? Trying to get a vantage from farther SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2.75" in Purcellville.. Snowing at about 0.02" per hour rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I know this is really stupid but...how the heck do you change locations? Trying to get a vantage from farther SW. https://weather.cod.edu/buildmap/nexrad_build.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like for me at least we are going to get at least one more solid thump of snow with this upcoming band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow picking up but, larger flakes as well, still no accumulations yet. At best a thin coating on the grass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 OK who went for a walk with mPING? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Need to get rates back here. Basically just flurries right now. Hopefully some of that stuff in southern MD swings up here by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seawolf14 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 31° here in Romancoke/Kent Island, MD. Closing in on roughly an inch so far. Snow just got heavier , enjoying the SnowTV out the window! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 We have this many snows 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Need to get rates back here. Basically just flurries right now. Hopefully some of that stuff in southern MD swings up here by 4 What do you think Fairfax had all day until now. Either way you should get a costal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nice and steady...simply just a winter day. Better than it just being like a regular day around here. I'm enjoying it plus my call from a few days ago is looking solid for both locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wha? I just wanna know what to expect/not expect, that's all...not sure why you're condescending. Now, what I didn't know was what you said about the proximity--50-70 miles of here...so it can go anywhere in that zone? I gotcha...so that's the possibility. See I wasn't sure how far or how close ya had to be to it (because I'm still learning) I had assumed since the NAM was showing what it did, that getting more than an inch or two from the coastal was kinda off the table, so what the globals showed was a tad surprising. But if the possibility is still there, great. All the more reason 6-10" was a good call, lol I'm not trying to be condescending. I'm speaking for the group. I'm not jumping all over a single post. I'm trying to slow down a repetitive pattern that literally over 1k people read daily during events. I've only been legit active again here since Friday night and since then, you constantly ask for specifics and back yard comfirmation (directly and indirectly) for a good outcome. The uncertainty of it combined with hardwired deep rooted need for snow (we're all the same) is getting to you and it's obvious. Yes, it's frustrating. I have over 15 straight years on this board feeling that same exact frustration. Thing is, nobody here can accurately give you the confirmation you're looking for and neither can a weather model. You dont seem at ease with any answers given so you keep asking. Go back and read all your question posts after each model suite since Friday night and then consider my original post again. I'm not trying to be an ass. I'm trying to help you become a better and more enjoyable poster here. Back in 2006 I got my chops busted HARD on EasternWx from long timers for a lot of similar reasons. I didnt get mad or offended at all. Quite the opposite actually. I took the advice to heart and improved ever since. That's what this is about. Not me being a jerk trying to piss you off for sadistic pleasure. Your yard has a much better chance at good snow after today than mine and imo your yard doesnt have good odds either. But that doeant mean you 100% for sure wont get hit flush with pt 2. It's down to pulling off a smallish miracle (imo only). 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: OK who went for a walk with mPING? Green over sykesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: OK who went for a walk with mPING? Thanks for the indirect reminder to reinstall mPING app, which I forgot to do a month or so ago for the winter season. BTW, 34.3 with a fine, though steady pixie dust snow falling here for the past 3-4 hours. Haven't been out, so NO idea how much measurable snow has fallen, though eyeballing it, I'm guessing between 2"-3" with some compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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