clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i hate psu Hard to say we get screwed when we get a foot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From 41 to 35. I will allow it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM went from 35 to 17 IMBY....toss it. That little spot of 4' in Bmore County...wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 7H and 85H low development on the RGEM is total NSFW stuff. I might need @stormtracker permission to post something this naughty @psuhoffman Bro, you're gonna need a cigarette looking at the precip panels Go on lol... post those images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: From 41 to 35. I will allow it. Easier to lose 6 inches when aren’t starting at 6 inches. sun still shining in Montclair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We all know that if we were actually getting a 30" snowstorm the 18z NAM would be showing at least 60" 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Which models have typically handled our monster storms in the past,once within 24 hours of event? Hrrr? Nam? Wasnt there a rap model at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Might need to spend the day Monday at the Inner Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: we got Named by the RGEM but does this model have wild swings typically within 48? Every meso will have some issues with a secondary transfer at 48 hours. BUT the rgem has been consistent. It also has support from its ggem parent. I also don’t know if it has the same issues with convective feedback I know the NAM does which will really be an issue here. I know our instinct is to go with the model that screws us but so long as the NAM is on its own I think it’s just off on a tangent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Do we have a NSFW tag? Because this deserves it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Negnao said: That low just stalls there. On the NAM it races ene. If only we can get that low down to 985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I havent tracked this threat anywhere in the same universe as you and others here but I did start watching closer on Tues. I knew quickly what kind of storm it is and yard potential. For pt 1 my fear was the typical lose dynamics during transfer and having a repeat of pt 1 for a march storm we dont talk about due to ptsd. Looks like that's almost off the table but never know until you know. Pt 2 is fraught with peril for anyone south of I70 no matter what. It's been proven that way too many times. I was surprised you worried about getting fringed honeslty. That would be an anomaly just like the nova jacks earier this week. I was almost sure that wouldnt happen just like I was sure you should be the last person to be worried about being too far north. I figured climo would prevail and it seems to be doing just that. I dont have big expectations because memory tells me it's unlikely just like all other hyrbid transfers. I expect a good storm but I've burned through some luck in jan 2016 and jan 2019. I'll take my middle of the pack total ad be happy. Wrt part 1 we have a much better antecedent airmass and it’s Jan 31. Even that storm we don’t speak of would have been a 6” snow in DC with this airmass in front of it. I know that because I did get 6” up here with no more qpf just barely cold enough due to my elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We get a little unlucky out this way on the RGEM as it has us in between bands. Could certainly happen that way though. RGEM still snowing on the Eastern shore Wednesday morning. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Every meso will have some issues with a secondary transfer at 48 hours. BUT the rgem has been consistent. It also has support from its ggem parent. I also don’t know if it has the same issues with convective feedback I know the NAM does which will really be an issue here. I know our instinct is to go with the model that screws us but so long as the NAM is on its own I think it’s just off on a tangent. yea consistent to me is usesless in modeling becuase in one run---it could do a wild swing and the consistency meant nothing. usually outliers like the RGEM or NAM wont probaby work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon went the wrong way--frustrating hobby Dude, the ICON's sole purpose as a model is to give us hope when real models dont. Otherwise there is no purpose. I tossed the 18z run the second the rgem held 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Bob Chill wrt part 2 some of it was seeing that NS vort trending south every run. Had that continued it would have squashed this. And we have lost several good opportunities that way recently. Probably due to the NS dominant fast pac jet pattern increasing odds of a random wave up there to run interference at any given time. And the ONLY way I saw us getting blanked was if the wave gets squashed. Even if the ccb doesn’t Pan out a more amped wave imo meant at the least a 3-6” (probably more) waa snow. Mitigating the risk of explains bare ground to my 2 kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Which models have typically handled our monster storms in the past,once within 24 hours of event? Hrrr? Nam? Wasnt there a rap model at one point? The RAP still exists and actually goes out to 51 hours every 6 hours (3-9-15-21Z)... it is 13km resolution so has a lot of the same spatial problems the NAM has, but does have good temporal resolution and can be useful in close because that lets it assimilate obs better. I actually like the RAP a lot within 24 hours for ptype diagnosis, but it will naturally be smoother than the true CAMs due to its spatial resolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Go on lol... post those images For the people 850mb Height 700mb Height 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM and to a lesser extent GFS have retrograde loop of coastal, which would explain apparently huge snowfall predictions. Not quite buying that totally but factoring it into second call which follows first call (which was 17-23 widespread, 25-30 local). DCA 16.5 IAD 20.5 BWI 24.5 nMD/sePA local 30-35 15" snow line n/c DE to near Annapolis to Quantico mixing zone mainly from that contour to Ocaen City-Richmond (5" snowfalls). Blizzard-like storm for many areas of c, ne MD and e PA, s/c NJ Winds not being discussed much but with the retrograde loop, gusts to 70 mph quite possible in a zone from n/c DE to central Chesapeake, probably 35-45 cities along I-95. Just a relatively brief interval of those winds, associated with retrograde phase mid-day Monday. Further afield, predicting 30" PHL, 20" NYC, 12" BDR, 14" BOS, only a medium sized snowfall for much of inland New England as they get a weaker phase of the evolution. Max snowfall from storm somewhere like Pottstown PA 36" 4 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Wrt part 1 we have a much better antecedent airmass and it’s Jan 31. Even that storm we don’t speak of would have been a 6” snow in DC with this airmass in front of it. I know that because I did get 6” up here with no more qpf just barely cold enough due to my elevation. Def dont want to go down memory lane here but I'll never forget standing outside at 1am with mod snow and a juiced radar thinking I cant wake up in the AM and see. I should have never woken up. The radar loop was depressing. It was like someome flipped a switch and the lights went out right overhead. Always a balance with hybrids. NAM juiced the WAA but that's a direct result of pt1 dynamics holding on longer. Hence the big dryslot. Good thing the only good model on the planet is the RGEM. For now anyways 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Radar Update. Hallucinations to begin tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: i hate psu I take it he's no longer worried about suppression? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Sometimes I swear Roger is Jeb in disguise. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Baro is 30.31 Would really like to see that get to 30.32 before I'll be comfortable. If this helps, I saw a wooly earthworm heading south. If the precipitation is in KY we won't get shafted. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Roger Smith said: RGEM and to a lesser extent GFS have retrograde loop of coastal, which would explain apparently huge snowfall predictions. Not quite buying that totally but factoring it into second call which follows first call (which was 17-23 widespread, 25-30 local). DCA 16.5 IAD 20.5 BWI 24.5 nMD/sePA local 30-35 15" snow line n/c DE to near Annapolis to Quantico mixing zone mainly from that contour to Ocaen City-Richmond (5" snowfalls). Blizzard-like storm for many areas of c, ne MD and e PA, s/c NJ Winds not being discussed much but with the retrograde loop, gusts to 70 mph quite possible in a zone from n/c DE to central Chesapeake, probably 35-45 cities along I-95. Just a relatively brief interval of those winds, associated with retrograde phase mid-day Monday. Further afield, predicting 30" PHL, 20" NYC, 12" BDR, 14" BOS, only a medium sized snowfall for much of inland New England as they get a weaker phase of the evolution. Max snowfall from storm somewhere like Pottstown PA 36" can you transate that from metric to Imperial? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Baro is 30.31 Would really like to see that get to 30.32 before I'll be comfortable. If this helps, I saw a wooly earthworm heading south. If the precipitation is in KY we won't get shafted. my friend is about to send up a weather balloon in Pittsburgh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Baro is 30.31 Would really like to see that get to 30.32 before I'll be comfortable. If this helps, I saw a wooly earthworm heading south. If the precipitation is in KY we won't get shafted. Shut up Chuck 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: For the people 850mb Height 700mb Height 700 needs work. Get on that post haste!! and by work i mean it has to move souther morether 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Once again....acceptable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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