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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, high risk said:

.... although it has a nice band going through Baltimore early Tuesday

Yeah, that's about the best thing that can be said about the Euro. Otherwise, it's a total whiff. I'll hold out some hope maybe the HRRR starts trending our way and something weird happens, but I think we all know where this is going for Monday/Tuesday.

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Snow picking up just a little. Fine flakes. Looks like it’s falling on an angle more from the NE now. Temp has dropped past few hours from 30 to 28. About/almost 2” eyeballing. Using windy.com, it looks like one low center is around Indianapolis and another near Columbia, SC.  Best pressure falls between Va Tidewater and Charleston , SC. 

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Euro kinda just took a dump on my area. Saw it coming. Was shifting the deform band a little northeast every run and finally pretty much took it away completely.  Does swing that band through Tuesday but on the EDGE so even a 10 mile adjustment east with that and the coastal is pretty much a total bust even up here. Oh well it happens.  Still close...if it corrects back 30 miles suddenly It’s on again but these last minute miller b trends don’t seem to reverse that often. 

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If the radar doesn’t fill in, it will be a pretty big miss by pretty much all guidance for the near metro.  I have about 0.2” of precip total.  Just crazy to think just yesterday models were spitting out close to an inch.  Never bet against the Nams I suppose.

kids love it though!

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Just now, CAPE said:

Not quite as good for here this run- it mostly jacks right along and west of the bay-  but the general idea is the same. Some backside love.

1612332000-M3odLaxkAqU.png

I actually think this is the most likely outcome here if things align correctly with the coastal. There’s plenty of room for heavy snow to make its way into eastern half of Maryland with the CCB, including Baltimore city. 

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