WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 59 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Anyone trying to bank much on the coastal south of I-70 was definitely in prayer mode. The RGEM runs were fun in a cosmic way and it was great to joke around for a time, but unless other guidance started showing something similar, I just remained skeptical and cautionary, waiting to see if it kept it up and others joined in. I thought the NAMs, the NSSL, the HRRR this morning, the ARW, the NMM, and the HREF would start to come around to the globals but they have shown the exact opposite. It would be a brutal beat for the local NWS offices, and that’s my main reason I feel down. If you haven’t worked in a NWS office, you don’t realize the amount of trust you lose busting a forecast like this and you get berated from all different directions and have to re-earn trust again. It would suck and I would feel for my colleagues. People are stupid and suck and don’t understand weather and it makes the matter worse. I’m also still recovering from a back injury. I’m much better than a week ago, but I’m not 100%. I am irritated of how this year started and I have other personal stuff with family I’m not gonna talk about. It’s a tough time for me and seeing my friends here get pasted would make me happy. Hopefully everyone enjoys the snow today. I know I’d be out driving around in it, having an absolute blast. It’s such a joy for me and I miss it and I miss home. . Bummer on the personal. Where is home vs now? The book on Miller Bs is mostly don’t work around here. They are 100% forecasted and 25% realized. This is Again where analog experiences will Trump models every time I am realizing now most all posters don’t have 20-50 years of weather observations and recordation so naturally models are the focus. I mean honestly models have shown coastal from 150 miles east of OC moving improbably back west, a 24 hour stall, then tucked around Norfolk and now down along NC/SC coastline. The downright hatred of me because I say these things is hopefully now muted by one of the best longtime posters here returning from a lengthy absence and saying a lot of the same things. i want a big event and good weather experiences at all times but there is more to observations, anticipation, forecasting and reporting during the event than models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1.5 inches measured. Nice winter day. SN- light flakes coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, ovechkin said: If only I had such power and influence. If things pick up like I expect here shortly will that make a difference or is this just how it is? I dont remember you from years past and this is my first time back so there may be some backstory I'm unaware of. Just noticing a pattern just like I do with wx. Not trying to be an ass (kinda sorta) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, B-Paq said: @CAPE looks like that band we just got should be on your doorstep soon, enjoy it - it's a good one! Coming down nicely now with some dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceDoc Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Long time lurker. Glen Allen, VA, near Hanover border, just West of 95, and N of 295. Noon obs: Right at 5", Temp 31 to 32, mixture of snow, sleet, some rain. 3 miles south is mostly rain and sleet. Roads covered completely. Transition definitely came later than local mets predicted. Wishing for our friends to the north to have good fortune with round 2. Doc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This is a really disappointing event. I'd be generous to say we have gotten 1.5 inches here in Del Ray so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9:00AM start 12:38PM: .6”, 29.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 @CAPE maybe Euro will hold firm . The HRRR shifting South compared to earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Am I doing this right? I have 36”. 10 14 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar in the lull area is looking better the last few scans. Looking "splotchy" back towards Front Royal and Culpeper. Let's see if Bob Chill is right...he usually is. He might have some way of controlling the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Flake quality improving slowly as the radar hopefully continues to fill in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The Amazon guys are still out making their rounds. Maybe that's our new threshold for a winter storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Radar in the lull area is looking better the last few scans. Looking "splotchy" back towards Front Royal and Culpeper. Let's see if Bob Chill is right...he usually is. He might have some way of controlling the weather. Let's just hope it's not mixy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Radar in the lull area is looking better the last few scans. Looking "splotchy" back towards Front Royal and Culpeper. Let's see if Bob Chill is right...he usually is. He might have some way of controlling the weather. Agreed. Once the splotches moved overhead here in Ashburn rates finally picked up. Still light, but it's accumulating again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I am at 2" in my part of Balt City - still a steady light to moderate snow. I refuse to look at radar - this has a chance to get to 5 inches and verified warning criteria if we can hold this through six... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 56 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wait. 12z Euro is gonna be HUGE. If it stays the course or improves, I would move it. I'm getting onboard. Just pulled my emergency kerosene heater out of the basement. We're getting snowed in! 1.8" so far on the deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The downright hatred of me because I say these things is hopefully now muted by one of the best longtime posters here returning from a lengthy absence and saying a lot of the same things. Are you talking about me? Not sure if u are but if so, I don't mute anybody in our sub. Especially longtimers. You could insult my mom and it still wouldnt change that. I didnt get invested in this storm until late tues/early weds but I did see it showing up out in time. My very first thought was I'll only believe an unusual miller b hybrid during a nina smoking my yard when I see it. I'm optimistic always but I never take a suckers bet anymore. Miller bust PTSD is a real thing. I tried to get my doc to prescribe a pallet of valiums but it was a nogo for some dumb reason. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3+ in Manassas SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Seems to have mostly shut off in Charlottesville. Measured 5.5" in my front yard, relatively confident we got a bit more than that, but I'll check with other obs before changing my report. Great storm. 5 mile jebwalk. No anxiety about the CCB. All worked out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Moderate snow. Been snow nicely for about the last hour. 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I had 2" last time I measured, now I have 1.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I've received almost 1 3/4" so far; perfect for a morning jog and a few snowballs. Started working on a snowman but the ratio of leaves to snow forced me to abandon ... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Firetrucks don't like snow. From Henrico County, VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: He might have some way of controlling the weather. Heh, if that was true then my yard would get 60 feet and everybody else would get 60 flakes. Then I would spam the board with obs and pics like a bot on reddit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Flake quality improving slowly as the radar hopefully continues to fill in. 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I am at 2" in my part of Balt City - still a steady light to moderate snow. I refuse to look at radar - this has a chance to get to 5 inches and verified warning criteria if we can hold this through six... Getting windy too! Very nice out with steady fine flakes and blowing snow from trees and rooftops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Maybe we passed each other on that walk @NorthArlington101! I went through Rugby, passed the Rotunda and went through the Corner as well. Only got 5" IMBY, but so far no FZR so that's a big win for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If things pick up like I expect here shortly will that make a difference or is this just how it is? I dont remember you from years past and this is my first time back so there may be some backstory I'm unaware of. Just noticing a pattern just like I do with wx. Not trying to be an ass (kinda sorta) Lol. Just calling it like I see it on this one. Potential for double digits that turns into 2 pity inches over several hours in prime climo while everywhere around us cashes in doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies. As a nearly retired MD now taking up meteorology more who has done the Covid front line thing for 10 months I just want a good snowstorm. But healthy and vaccinated so I really shouldn’t complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Heh, if that was true then my yard would get 60 feet and everybody else would get 60 flakes. Then I would spam the board with obs and pics like a bot on reddit. Well that would just be too obvious. You're clearly doing it in such a subtle way that nobody catches on. Meanwhile - I'm starting to think that radar filling in is not my imagination. Looking better with each frame to our west in Virginia. Bring it to us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Very light snow here, for the past 2.5 hours, but no accumulation so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Heaviest rates of the day so far here in La Plata. Winds shifting to out of the east. 31/30, 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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