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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Dark echos to the south, east and north of the immediate metro. Sounds about right. WAA is better to the south. Miss the coastal to the north.  There has go to be something to why the immediate metro seems to suck at maximizing dynamics in  any circumstance.

Anyway, Was just out in the Arcola, Georgia ave, Kemp mill road university blvd area. Barely an event on the roads. Spittting pixie dust now. Barely needed the wipers. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think the Richmond area is going to beat the DC area if the costal misses.

Yup.  Multiple 4-5 inch amounts down there.  Places that have had more snow than DC:  Richmond, Virginia Beach (LOL), Louisiana, central North Carolina, Madrid Spain

Very light snow and just under 2" on the ground.  Looks to be over.  Starting to fill out paperwork for the Panic Room

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Just now, ovechkin said:

Dark echos to the south, east and north of the immediate metro. Sounds about right. WAA is better to the south. Miss the coastal to the north.  There has go to be something to why the immediate metro seems to suck at maximizing dynamics in  any circumstance.

Anyway, Was just out in the Arcola, Georgia ave, Kemp mill road university blvd area. Barely an event on the roads. Spittting pixie dust now. Barely needed the wipers. 

It might be called Miller B climo. 

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Just now, ovechkin said:

Dark echos to the south, east and north of the immediate metro. Sounds about right. WAA is better to the south. Miss the coastal to the north.  There has go to be something to why the immediate metro seems to suck at maximizing dynamics in  any circumstance.

Anyway, Was just out in the Arcola, Georgia ave, Kemp mill road university blvd area. Barely an event on the roads. Spittting pixie dust now. Barely needed the wipers. 

Meanwhile, DC declared a “snow emergency” and is towing cars from snow routes, which will cost lots of unsuspecting people $375.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I guess those of us who have been in the game a while knew that whatever the models spit out, a transfer is always dicey for us.  That’s why I’m glad at least it’s white outside and my kids are having a blast. 

I'm finding it tough to see any grass blades. That's a big win - and it's not a slushy mess like the last event. That was the nasty water logged slush. This stuff is nice powder. Certainly not the event that could have been, though. 

Curious to see if the lull area can fill in a bit. 

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4 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Dark echos to the south, east and north of the immediate metro. Sounds about right. WAA is better to the south. Miss the coastal to the north.  There has go to be something to why the immediate metro seems to suck at maximizing dynamics in  any circumstance.

Anyway, Was just out in the Arcola, Georgia ave, Kemp mill road university blvd area. Barely an event on the roads. Spittting pixie dust now. Barely needed the wipers. 

Is it a coincidence that your yard conditions closely match your default posting vibe? 

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Getting ready to take the puppies out again...still holding to my old rule once the snow starts stop looking at the radar...it takes too much joy out of what's falling. 

Tricky rule haha. What qualifies as snow? I’ve got flakes but not much. I think we’re going to fill in soon though. It’s going to be a very interesting event! 

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59 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:


Anyone trying to bank much on the coastal south of I-70 was definitely in prayer mode. The RGEM runs were fun in a cosmic way and it was great to joke around for a time, but unless other guidance started showing something similar, I just remained skeptical and cautionary, waiting to see if it kept it up and others joined in.

I thought the NAMs, the NSSL, the HRRR this morning, the ARW, the NMM, and the HREF would start to come around to the globals but they have shown the exact opposite. It would be a brutal beat for the local NWS offices, and that’s my main reason I feel down. If you haven’t worked in a NWS office, you don’t realize the amount of trust you lose busting a forecast like this and you get berated from all different directions and have to re-earn trust again. It would suck and I would feel for my colleagues. People are stupid and suck and don’t understand weather and it makes the matter worse.

I’m also still recovering from a back injury. I’m much better than a week ago, but I’m not 100%. I am irritated of how this year started and I have other personal stuff with family I’m not gonna talk about. It’s a tough time for me and seeing my friends here get pasted would make me happy. Hopefully everyone enjoys the snow today. I know I’d be out driving around in it, having an absolute blast. It’s such a joy for me and I miss it and I miss home.


.

Bummer on the personal. Where  is home vs now? 

The book on Miller  Bs is mostly don’t work around here. They are 100% forecasted and 25% realized. This is Again where analog experiences will Trump models every time 

I am realizing now most all posters  don’t have 20-50 years of weather observations and recordation so naturally models are the focus. I mean honestly models have shown coastal from 150 miles east  of OC moving improbably back west, a 24 hour stall, then tucked around Norfolk and now down along NC/SC  coastline. The downright hatred of me because I say these things is hopefully now muted by one of  the best longtime posters here returning from a lengthy absence and saying a lot of the same things.

i want a big event and good weather experiences at all times but there is more to observations, anticipation, forecasting and reporting during the event than  models. 

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Just now, ovechkin said:

If only I had such power and influence. :)

If things pick up like I expect here shortly will that make a difference or is this just how it is? I dont remember you from years past and this is my first time back so there may be some backstory I'm unaware of. Just noticing a pattern just like I do with wx. Not trying to be an ass (kinda sorta:tomato:)

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Long time lurker. Glen Allen, VA, near Hanover border, just West of 95, and N of 295.  

Noon obs:

Right at 5", Temp 31 to 32, mixture of snow, sleet, some rain. 3 miles south is mostly rain and sleet. Roads covered completely. Transition definitely came later than local mets predicted.  

Wishing for our friends to the north to have good fortune with round 2. 

 

Doc

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