MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Is it even conceivable the NAM can out forecast a blend of superior models and ensembles at this juncture ? It would be a major coup, but I think the NAM may be having issues with the transfer idea. I will say, despite the NAM Nest looking better than the parent, it's still well short of every other guidance. Hopefully it's too rambunctious on the dry air intrusion within the mid-levels and it moistens up towards game time. It was paltry otherwise. Even the 85H wind field sucked for boundary layer moisture penetration further inland. Certainly on an island, but it can be a hint on things other guidance might miss. I'd hold off giving it too much weight beyond the WAA piece. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not saying much. If the NAM is remotely right, it will be a pretty large fail with the rest of numerical guidance. Hopefully it's not on to something for everyone's sake. It's pretty crap until almost the PA turnpike I liked the 850 wind axis a good deal more in the nest, and there is more precip later Monday in our area than in the parent, but there is certainly no argument that even this run didn't get it done for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: I liked the 850 wind axis a good deal more in the nest, and there is more precip later Monday in our area than in the parent, but there is certainly no argument that even this run didn't get it done for our area. That's exactly what I mentioned to @frd above. It was certainly better than the parent, but man oh man, that looked ugly. There wasn't even anything resembling a pure deformation axis anywhere except maybe coastal NJ. It was weak sauce. That would be brutal for NWS offices in the NE, especially Mount Holly and CTP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: The NAM unfortunately was a big harbringer with the Dec storm, so it could be right about the dry slot placement. Fortunately the WAA portion of the event looks pretty good... QPF is usually a bit overdone in those since it starts as virga and the models don't quite pick up on the lack of BL moisture (and the fact the column will generally saturate more gradually in isentropic ascent), but still I think 3-5 (my initial guess) might be conservative and we could be looking at 4-6 from that. Unfortunately with that dry slot and NEwrd displacement of the CCB we would be lucky to pick another 1-2 in showers after that. But if I can get 5-7 event total, with limited melting/compaction that is a big win given recent history. Wow, look at you. You started off rocky, but been making some good posts lately. This is actually reasonable and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 24° in Snowshoe. Will be driving back to Arlington Monday. Upslope may give Snowshoe more but too far West for the coastal. 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Ji said: wow we all waited days to get in NAM range to get NAM'D.....and looked what happens How long have you been at this to not know round 2 is not in NAMs wheelhouse at all Ji lol. Relax young Jedi. 0z tonight is much more important for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: This is the look right here!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z rgem held, no crazy dryslot and deforms the hell out of us. Obviously I don’t know if it will show the same insane stupid 3”+ qpf but from this we take! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 18z rgem held, no crazy dryslot and deforms the hell out of us. Obviously I don’t know if it will show the same insane stupid 3”+ qpf but from this we take! we got Named by the RGEM but does this model have wild swings typically within 48? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: @Bob Chill I'm actually don't 100% know the most likely outcome for my yard...lol I mean I'm assuming I'm in a pretty decent spot for the CCB...maybe being right on the fringe of said plastering, perhaps? Has the bay ever played a role in the moisture for this kind of I told you exactly what to expect last night. You wont do as well with pt 1 as those south of you and you have a better chance for pt 2 than everyone south of you. There's way too much uncertainty to discuss anything specific with pt 2. The range there for your yard is like 0-15" with the odds of the lower end being higher than the top end. But even if models dont specifically show a big pt 2, if your still in the envelope then you can't write off a big upside surprise. You could get under a fgen band and get 6" in less than 3 hours. Or someone 20 miles to your west gets than and you get 1-2". Just let it happen and dont seek specifics that can be given with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 18z rgem held, no crazy dryslot and deforms the hell out of us. Obviously I don’t know if it will show the same insane stupid 3”+ qpf but from this we take! Looks like about 1.75-2.25 for most of us from the naked eye. Can’t wait to see accumulated precip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Looks like about 1.75-2.25 for most of us from the naked eye. Can’t wait to see accumulated precip yea...i can handle going from 34 to 26 for the most part 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wow. That’s a beautiful photo. This can be deleted but just catching up @Scraff on what is going on in the discussion here. Going to wrap up here soon because in the shade it’s cold but great hanging out with him. Wish the other locals were here. Would love to hear @WxUSAF’s thoughts in person. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Another nice hold by the RGEM... as someone pointed out earlier if will be interesting to watch if the coastal gets dragged/reforms under the offshore convection (not a given for a baroclinic system) like the NAM shows, or stays more "tucked" like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z RGEM continues the DC and north mauling this run. Geez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7H and 85H low development on the RGEM is total NSFW stuff. I might need @stormtracker permission to post something this naughty @psuhoffman Bro, you're gonna need a cigarette looking at the precip panels 2 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: 18z RGEM continues the DC and north mauling this run. Geez. It’s the only model that matters. Toss everything else. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: 18z RGEM continues the DC and north mauling this run. Geez. I’m by no means saying it’s right, but one would have to consider if the evolution did occur like the RGEM has it and the UL dynamics it’s showing... are those totals really in left field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: 7H and 85H low development on the RGEM is total NSFW stuff. I might need @stormtracker permission to post something this naughty Still snowing at 72 at DCA including BWI getting the heavier snows still going at 75 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z rgem held, no crazy dryslot and deforms the hell out of us. Obviously I don’t know if it will show the same insane stupid 3”+ qpf but from this we take! Man, that's an exciting panel. These kinds of outcomes happen sometimes so it's believable. Sometimes models crush people but under the hood doesnt resemble how it really works. Rgem just tossed out back to back perfect scenarios for our region. Hard to not like that but again.... mesos prob aren't the most skilled this far out in time with a major dynamic storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wouldn’t trust the NAM until tomorrow. It’ll look all goofy and then a random 6z run it gets its act together. Happens all the time with this pos. All I do is use it literally as the storm is happening to get last second adjustments. Even then it sucks. The last December storm I chased I changed motel reservations because THE 12z NAM literally 3 hours before the first flakes shifted south and the max ended up going N of me.. I’d literally bet a cool g to anyone on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Congrats Bmore. What a beatdown that panel is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Icon went the wrong way--frustrating hobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM only has 30" this run. Baby step cave in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: That low just stalls there. On the NAM it races ene. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: i hate psu 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That is pure model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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