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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, JakkelWx said:

The radar is slowly filling in from the west. Snow is definitely lighter and there is a little more than a coating on the ground, eyeballing it. Seems like the coastal is starting to take over

Have large snowflakes with moderate snow in Easton...makes me wonder where the sleet line is lurking

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

The radar is slowly filling in from the west. Snow is definitely lighter and there is a little more than a coating on the ground, eyeballing it. Seems like the coastal is starting to take over

nope. 

Capture.JPG

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There wasn't a "wild swing" with the WAA (part 1) of the storm. The shifts have been with the transfer to the coast and the Monday/Tuesday part of the event. The low location and the upper level stuff has adjusted just a touch to be unfavorable for us. 

I think his point is... who’s to say the low won’t actually transfer a touch further south and that models are wrong about what they show right now? I understand the question - but, as someone said, models gets better as we get closer, not worse. There’s also simply not enough confluence to our N to push this thing further south. Models have been weakening the Confluence slowly but surely for days.
 

Meanwhile, it’s only 17 degrees at my parents house in Rockland county NY leading up to this. Pretty Unreal. 1.5” of QPF headed their way with 12:1+ ratios for sure. 

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4 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Have large snowflakes with moderate snow in Easton...makes me wonder where the sleet line is lurking

I think its still pretty far south. Looks like a nice band moving through there on radar, which has produced a bit of subsidence here. Barely snowing.

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be0209359be767156f090ffd77caf0fc.jpg
1.9” as of 10:15am here in McLean. Rates a bit higher than they were this past hour, but still somewhat light snow. Can’t complain though, getting most of a January’s worth of snow in one storm certainly isn’t a gut punch, even if it isn’t the 1’+ costal we were all hoping for. Meanwhile Gus absolutely loves it, so if he’s happy I’m happy. Kicking around the ball for him while powder accumulated makes this all worthwhile.


.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

28/20 no wind at all. It’s too cloudy to see but the real problem is there must be one of those little prop planes they send up from  Westminster circling around over head and whoever is flying that thing has the worst case of dandruff I’ve ever seen. It’s disgusting. Getting all over everything.  

This qualifies for Top 10 post of the year, lol

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Here from western Fairfax county we just got around 2" of snow and we need at least 1" more to just cover the grass. My lowest bar for this whole storm was 4'' which I thought was pretty good but with the dry slot I wonder if the grass could not get covered. All I really need to enjoy a snow is the grass being covered. I think I am just underestimating the snow bands today and the dry slot will probably fill in but makes me nervous none the less. Sorry for being a downer. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Will never laugh at the NAM again. This will be 2 storms this winter where it won. Dryslot is coming. And it was the first model to sniff it out.

I agree with this.  For all the crap we collectively give it it always seems to lead the way on East Coast snowstorms inside of 72 hours.  We dismiss the first run where it shows a north trend, and then the second, but then by the 3rd or 4th all the globals are on board with it.  It's way better than the RGEM imo.  

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I think his point is... who’s to say the low won’t actually transfer a touch further south and that models are wrong about what they show right now? I understand the question - but, as someone said, models gets better as we get closer, not worse. There’s also simply not enough confluence to our N to push this thing further south. Models have been weakening the Confluence slowly but surely for days.
 

Meanwhile, it’s only 17 degrees at my parents house in Rockland county NY leading up to this. Pretty Unreal. 1.5” of QPF headed their way with 12:1+ ratios for sure. 

Because the models are only wrong when they show snow and then it doesn't. When they don't show snow, you don't get a pleasant surprise, lol.

Ripping good here in Ellicott City. Would love to see this intensity all day.

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