Ka60 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Clarksburg, 10:00 AM 2.3" SNOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 ICON a bit further E and gets me under a CCB as the low is slowly departing like a snail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 RGEM has the area of backside snow roughly in line with the euro for Tuesday. It’ll be awesome if that happens for whoever gets under it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It's just a snowy day how much.. who cares anymore...it's snow! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Exactly! Wasn't the formula for this that the less we got from Part 1, the better our chances for a big Part 2? Right? Anyone? I’m sure someone with more knowledge can easily explain how both parts can end up screwing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 whats up with that HUGE dry slot to the south west? Its a little early for that to be happening already? Is the transfer to the coastal happening a little earlier than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Herb@MAWS said: Peanuts Xmas Special snow rates. If anything the novelty of it all justifies the fail. I didn't want to live through another Jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: That dry slot is coming in awfully fast i highly suggest you stop fretting about radar and models and enjoy whats falling. so much better that way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 If the 3K NAM is right we’re gonna be hurting tomorrow. Just a disastrous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: I’m sure someone with more knowledge can easily explain how both parts can end up screwing us I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: no, it’s not. good grief. no need to be snippy about it! Your avatar is perfect for you 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us. Off the DE/MD border coastline isn't going to do it for us. Would like it a decent bit south and east of there with the tuck. I glanced at a bunch of the models earlier and they seem to be focused in that area. Down off Norfolk or even a little north of there would be much better IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. The Rgem seems kinda like the ukie to me. More often than not if its out on a limb it doesn’t lead the way. BTW I think the para has had the NYC jackpot for a while now, if that does indeed happen it’ll be a good performance for it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. I always thought the RGEM's biggest issue was it had a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us. More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbusada Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow tapering off in Southern AA county. Snowed lightly since 7:00 am. 1/2” so far and temps rising now at 32.1/30. Up from 29 at 7:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: i highly suggest you stop fretting about radar and models and enjoy whats falling. so much better that way. I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I have a real question. If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. okie dokie. you do you friend. enjoy what falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. I like your creative way of not actually saying the bad word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Better rates and flakeage here while listening to Vince Guaraldi's Charlie Brown album. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Always kind of hate walking on untrodden snow covered ground. 5.5” in the woods. Might be slightly high. . Pro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, understudyhero said: I have a real question. If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models? Because the closer in, the better they get. And this is a Miller B that typically always develops too far N for us. I’m thinking tomorrow will be a complete bust but I’m gonna try to enjoy what we get today. Even though the 3K NAM struggles to get me to even 3” before the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, understudyhero said: I have a real question. If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models? You must be new here hahahaha. Btw FATTIES in Takoma park outta nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. One thing that always bothered me about this one was the trough orientation. It always seemed slightly positive to neutral and our big ones show the trough negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, understudyhero said: I have a real question. If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models? There wasn't a "wild swing" with the WAA (part 1) of the storm. The shifts have been with the transfer to the coast and the Monday/Tuesday part of the event. The low location and the upper level stuff has adjusted just a touch to be unfavorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, understudyhero said: I have a real question. If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models? Unfortunately yes because much uncertainty from coastal re-development process has been removed now. Surprises are possible always but 100 mile surprises are a bit much at this point if you ask me. I'll gladly take a surprise but so for this is going down like a long list of similar storms. Thankfully not as bad as a cluster of storms that have scarred even the most hardened weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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