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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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I doubted this thing all week but finally bought in yesterday and believed we were getting 6 inches plus.  The joke's on me.  I forgot to use the Mid-Atlantic Miller Bust Formula -- take your predicted range, and divide the lower number by half.  For example predicted 6-10 you're getting 3.

Now I will not believe in any system no matter what the models show.  Bring on spring.

About 1.5" and barely snowing, sky brightening.

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Just now, BlizzardNole said:

I doubted this thing all week but finally bought in yesterday and believed we were getting 6 inches plus.  The joke's on me.  I forgot to use the Mid-Atlantic Miller Bust Formula -- take your predicted range, and divide the lower number by half.  For example predicted 6-10 you're getting 3.

Now I will not believe in any system no matter what the models show.  Bring on spring.

About 1.5" and barely snowing, sky brightening.

We're pretty close to living in the same place. I'm thinking, seriously, that we get more snow from our December snow than we get with this one. 3.5" is the target.

 

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Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? ;)
 

For Baltimore metro and points NNE, I haven’t quite lost all hope on the coastal yet. Won’t take much to get solid banding into NE sections of the CWA. But man... it’s looking bleak for DC, most of Maryland, and VA for anything too substantial from part 2. 
 

unreal. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? ;)

Exactly! Wasn't the formula for this that the less we got from Part 1, the better our chances for a big Part 2? Right? Anyone?

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Just now, jayyy said:

Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? ;)

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. 

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

I’m sure someone with more knowledge can easily explain how both parts can end up screwing us  

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from. 

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