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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 

Should we be concerned about this slot of dry air approaching from the west and moving into our area, or will it fill in before it gets closer to us. Also I think Richmond might have more snow than us. Either way in Western Fairfax all roads are snowy and around 1.5-2 inches of snow has fallen. 

Enjoy the snow! Don't worry about a potential dry slot. It's pretty out there! 

There's patchy radar coverage in that area and it always shows less snow than is actually there. Just look at the LWX radar you can even see the beam with a little slice cut out of it. If we spend all day hand wringing about dry slots we'll miss the great powder falling now. Take the Jebman approach!

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Enjoy the snow! Don't worry about a potential dry slot. It's pretty out there! 

There's patchy radar coverage in that area and it always shows less snow than is actually there. Just look at the LWX radar you can even see the beam with a little slice cut out of it. If we spend all day hand wringing about dry slots we'll miss the great powder falling now. Take the Jebman approach!

Anytime decent green returns "cloud up" the beam shadow, I know it's still going to be good for a time. 

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem is that the exact surface low location doesn’t matter too much for us.  The target is still Long Island/NYC/Northern NJ.

Might be logging off for the rest of the event. I have a ton of friends who work at Mount Holly and CTP. If the NAM's and the latest Hi Res are right, they are going to get absolutely hammered by the public. It would be a terrible time to score a coup for the NAM. If my map busts, oh well. If theirs does, they take a beating. What a massive kick in the groin if this model suite is right.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem is that the exact surface low location doesn’t matter too much for us.  The target is still Long Island/NYC/Northern NJ.

Was just about to say that. It's getting closer for us if you want to see snow, but if you want to see anything really accumulate, all the good stuff on all of those recent runs hasn't changed. It's all focused right around NYC.

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Light snow, eyeballing it 1-2" (like many things, I'm not good at eyeballing). It isn't covering the side streets I see out the window; hell, in December's little dance, the streets were more covered. After I fortify myself with coffee, will head out for Glover-Archibald Park. Or maybe I'll get ambitious and jebhike up Nebraska to Rock Creek. By the time I get there I'm sure the dryslot currently along the Virginias' border will be fully entrenched overhead. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Anytime decent green returns "cloud up" the beam shadow, I know it's still going to be good for a time. 

It does seem it might be a legit drier area - but I'm not too worried about it. In a bit of a lull right now but it looks "bandy" in NoVA heading our way. I've already been on a Jebwalk™ this morning. If we completely fail on the deform tomorrow I'll still chalk this up as a good storm. It's powdery goodness out there right now. I'm taking the Bob Chill approach. Hand wringing gets us nowhere. 

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Just now, Rhino16 said:

It was a real question, but I’ll be happy to remove it if it’s not useful.

Sorry - not aimed at you personally. I personally can’t stand when people post the correlation coefficient, so it’s a “me” problem. We suck enough at snow, and seeing the mix line approach is a huge buzzkill, especially if we underperform as it is!

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Might be logging off for the rest of the event. I have a ton of friends who work at Mount Holly and CTP. If the NAM's and the latest Hi Res are right, they are going to get absolutely hammered by the public. It would be a terrible time to score a coup for the NAM. If my map busts, oh well. If theirs does, they take a beating. What a massive kick in the groin if this model suite is right.

Lets hope for the best. I can attest down here folks are crazy, shelves emptying out , ridiculous if you ask me. 

Look forward to an update from you tomorrow, if possible, thanks for your great posts !  

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I love you brother but that's a triple bun post lol. 

It looks like that area of possible ping washes out due south of RIC.

I’ll take however many buns are rightfully crammed into my mouth.

Went to bed last night having scaled down my expectations massively, but I’m already feeling a bit let down even after that. I need to buck up.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Sorry - not aimed at you personally. I personally can’t stand when people post the correlation coefficient, so it’s a “me” problem. We suck enough at snow, and seeing the mix line approach is a huge buzzkill, especially if we underperform as it is!

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. It is nice to just enjoy the storm without worrying about some liquid, but it’s a learning opportunity for me, so not going to pass it up.

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