high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM nest at the end of its run looks notably better than the parent. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Storm escapes to the NE on the NAM - no real deform to speak of - it the WAA was pretty money. Not particularly concerned about it at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAMs really have no ccb anywhere in the mid Atlantic because they blast a huge dry slot through and focus all the coastal redevelopment from NYC northeast along the baroclinic boundary there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 34/10 cirrostratus in the southwest sky. 30.28” and slowly falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Does RGEM run in the off hours too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, high risk said: NAM nest at the end of its run looks notably better than the parent. The precip is just so light at that point, though. We can add some fluff, but the last 6 hours of the Nest is 0.1-0.15” liquid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 wow we all waited days to get in NAM range to get NAM'D.....and looked what happens 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: We’ve discussed it extensively (ad nauseam, really) in the past few days, too. Yeah this is not a new thing. Pretty normal in WAA events with cold in place but relaxing, and ofc there are additional issues with the transfer to the coastal. If anyone is surprised that this will not be a pure snow event almost everywhere, they have probably spent way too much time gawking at dumb snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Does RGEM run in the off hours too? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just my opinion and memory but until the current primary has begun the process of the transfer, meso's are prob not the first or second choice for which model is most likely right. Think about how much atmospheric heavy lifting happens before the primary is the coastal. Isn't it more than possible that the mesos would amplify the inherent math errors? Mesos are def very valuable for part 1 now. Prob the first choice at this point. Second part? Idk man. I wouldnt hang my hat or worry about any outcome for part 2. I had the same thoughts with the rgem. I mean yea, it was a weenie on molly run but it's still a meso and there's still a whole lot of big time stuff that needs to happen first. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Does RGEM run in the off hours too? unfortunately...your dreams will probably crash and burn....id rather it not run till 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM nest at the end of its run looks notably better than the parent. Not saying much. If the NAM is remotely right, it will be a pretty large fail with the rest of numerical guidance. Hopefully it's not on to something for everyone's sake. It's pretty crap until almost the PA turnpike 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36 so far in Tuckahoe hoping it stays cold. Oop, 37 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: unfortunately...your dreams will probably crash and burn....id rather it not run till 00z I will always have 1/30/21 at 10:15 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM nest at the end of its run looks notably better than the parent. It really tries but it’s made it pretty hard to activate any kind of deform axis with that dryslot it blasted through. I’ve yet to see it to that extent on any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Storm escapes to the NE on the NAM - no real deform to speak of - it the WAA was pretty money. Not particularly concerned about it at that range. I mean at this point, it looks like we need to abandon the CCB idea, at least down here. Seems like good news from @high risk re: the NAM nest...so a wash over all. WAA it is! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: unfortunately...your dreams will probably crash and burn....id rather it not run till 00z Even if we had to wait until 0z RGEM, it's gonna come down from this morning's ridiculous solution. Re-adjust your expectations and Enjoy your 4-7 dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nothing too crazy. I think the NWS has a pretty good grasp of things right now. I'm relying mostly on the Sunday front-end thump along+east of I-95. 7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not saying much. If the NAM is remotely right, it will be a pretty large fail with the rest of numerical guidance. Hopefully it's not on to something for everyone's sake. It's pretty crap until almost the PA turnpike Is it even conceivable the NAM can out forecast a blend of superior models and ensembles at this juncture ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I mean at this point, it looks like we need to abandon the CCB idea, at least down here. Seems like good news from @high risk re: the NAM nest...so a wash over all. WAA it is! Thats been my feeling all along. Give me the easy snow and anything else is a bonus. You get almost 7 from the waa this run. Nothing to be pissed about for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Even if we had to wait until 0z RGEM, it's gonna come down from this morning's ridiculous solution. Re-adjust your expectations and Enjoy your 4-7 dude Right. It will literally never be like that again. Was mostly asking to see how much it would walk it back in terms of set-up. Guess we will know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAM unfortunately was a big harbringer with the Dec storm, so it could be right about the dry slot placement. Fortunately the WAA portion of the event looks pretty good... QPF is usually a bit overdone in those since it starts as virga and the models don't quite pick up on the lack of BL moisture (and the fact the column will generally saturate more gradually in isentropic ascent), but still I think 3-5 (my initial guess) might be conservative and we could be looking at 4-6 from that. Unfortunately with that dry slot and NEwrd displacement of the CCB we would be lucky to pick another 1-2 in showers after that. But if I can get 5-7 event total, with limited melting/compaction that is a big win given recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not saying much. If the NAM is remotely right, it will be a pretty large fail with the rest of numerical guidance. Hopefully it's not on to something for everyone's sake. It's pretty crap until almost the PA turnpike Well at least we have history on our side, in that the when the nam is solo it usually flips. I like at @Bob Chill comment on the transfer possibly being an issue for meso’s to handle such a complicated transfer. Either before or after that is good for frontogenisis and banding, but the middle of this process sometimes leaves them bewildered. I mean, one meso (rgem) has 30+” and the other has 11”, lol. Someone’s not right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm heading to Twitter to DM him on what WPC preferred blend is so far for guidance because it looks like they are using ECMWF/EC Ens/GFS considering the surface forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Watch into warning here just now - URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DEZ001-MDZ012-015-019-310945- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.210131T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.210131T1200Z-210202T1500Z/ New Castle-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Including the cities of Wilmington, Chestertown, Centreville, and Easton 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Downgraded to an advisory here for 4-6 inches. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 35.5/14.3 with a high cirrus cover and a lowering deck moving in from the SW. 30.23 falling and a ESE wind at 4 here. It was 14.5 here this morning for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill it will sting some of the capture is late and the ccb misses. But note as this amps up so has the WAA the last few runs. So even without getting crushed by the CCB the DC area is still looking at a 6-10” snowstorm and that’s if they mostly get screwed which is probably about what it would have been if we got a more suppressed weaker solution. So imo 6-10” with the potential to get 20” if we get lucky with the ccb is better then a suppressed weaker wave where we get maybe 6-12 but there is no hecs upside. But I think some let their perception be effected by the “who gets the most” game. They feel better about 8” if they are the Jack v a 10” storm where somewhere else got 30”. I get it. Envy is a real thing lol. But I always will take my chances on a more amped up storm with bigger upside. These kinds of setups don’t come along that often why be conservative. Our snow climo sucks and it mostly boom or bust so let’s go for boom every chance we get imo. I havent tracked this threat anywhere in the same universe as you and others here but I did start watching closer on Tues. I knew quickly what kind of storm it is and yard potential. For pt 1 my fear was the typical lose dynamics during transfer and having a repeat of pt 1 for a march storm we dont talk about due to ptsd. Looks like that's almost off the table but never know until you know. Pt 2 is fraught with peril for anyone south of I70 no matter what. It's been proven that way too many times. I was surprised you worried about getting fringed honeslty. That would be an anomaly just like the nova jacks earier this week. I was almost sure that wouldnt happen just like I was sure you should be the last person to be worried about being too far north. I figured climo would prevail and it seems to be doing just that. I dont have big expectations because memory tells me it's unlikely just like all other hyrbid transfers. I expect a good storm but I've burned through some luck in jan 2016 and jan 2019. I'll take my middle of the pack total ad be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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