Ka60 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Clarksburg, 4:45 AM Sun Jan31, Moderate Snow. roads are covered already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. I’ll bet nobody in Maryland gets a foot much less 2 or 3. Do you ever post realistic expectations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. Justin Berk? Starting to see some flurries. Waiting on my 2 feet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GfS ain’t too bad with the coastal/CCB for Monday afternoon and evening. It’s not a pummeling until you get to the PA line but we’re able to add 3-5” elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 WB 6Z NAM v 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 About and inch and Light Snow, just NW of FXBG, 28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 27/27. 4 inches and counting! Pics to follow in the morning. NW of Staunton at 1550’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 WB 6z GFS v 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps. One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Meso for SW part of forum https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0049.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow Thanks @MillvilleWx and everyone for the awesome analysis! Much appreciated! Light Snow and 28 NW of Fredericksburg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 28/27 Up to around 0.5" in Lake Ridge. Biggest total of the season already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nothing that I can see out my window yet. 30/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps. Fwiw, the Icon already busted low for mby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow On the Euro when 850mb low moves a bit SE off the SNJ coast it gets into a pretty decent spot. This is what I have been watching. Cant see the upper levels on the Icon, but I have a feeling it looks similar. GFS has the action further east/southeast during this timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just went to moderate almost Heavy Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z GFS v 0Z Thank you for posting the maps but one is 10/1 the other is kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there! 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: On the Euro when 850mb low moves a bit SE off the SNJ coast it gets into a pretty decent spot. This is what I have been watching. Cant see the upper levels on the Icon, but I have a feeling it looks similar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nothing that I can see out my window yet. 30/17. Night vision goggles run out of batteries? Looks like your main show will be later this morning and afternoon. I'd grab a nice pancake breakfast and a cup of coffee while you wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like I’m waking up to a couple inches on the ground. Official spotter had 1.4” a little before 4AM. Definitely more than that out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there! The other thing that is interesting on the GFS is this panel as the deform band is just beginning to develop nw of the low. Has some heavy precip and 850s and surface are cooling at the same time. This is 'recorded' as rain (here) verbatim on the model, but maybe it ends up rain flipping to snow as temps are starting to crash during this window. GFS is also warmer than other guidance. ICON has it too and it thinks it's snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 29° and light snow. Not the best trends since the afternoon yesterday but still going with 5”+ for the dc metro (dca 3.2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nice expanding band getting ready to push into the 270 corridor.... Light snow 29/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Very light snow with a dusting in Germantown, 29 degrees. My bar for this storm is 6" and that might be tough with the way things look right now. My point-click forecast is just 2-4 for today and I don't think we get any here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar looking beautiful this morning. Looks like it's on my doorstep. DC looks like a good spot today imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nothing yet in Columbia, MD at 6:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Very unimpressive so far. 30 in wheaton with light snow. Dusting on the grass. Street just wet. Without any rates this will be an all day couple of inches deal. The WAA snow didn’t start early nor come in like a wall. Not good signs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Very unimpressive so far. 30 in wheaton with light snow. Dusting on the grass. Street just wet. Without any rates this will be an all day couple of inches deal. The WAA snow didn’t start early nor come in like a wall. Not good signs. It’s 6:30 am. Best stuff today was always between 10-4pm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Very unimpressive so far. 30 in wheaton with light snow. Dusting on the grass. Street just wet. Without any rates this will be an all day couple of inches deal. The WAA snow didn’t start early nor come in like a wall. Not good signs. Nothing was ever supposed to come in like a wall either lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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